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Americas Energy & Transition Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the U.S. natural gas market, focusing on the potential for a gas supercycle and tracking key metrics to support this view. The report outlines the current state of the market and highlights several key developments that are influencing the outlook for natural gas production, demand, and valuation.

Main Thesis

The authors are gas bulls, believing that a gas supercycle is beginning, which would benefit energy and transition companies. The four key legs of the thesis are:

1. LNG export growth
2. Power demand growth
3. Permian associated growth
4. Supplier discipline

Key Information

Market Trends

• Feedgas to LNG exports have increased by +2.1 bcfd YTD, slightly below the +2.4 bcfd annual estimate (bullish).
• LNG projects have ramped by +1.7 bcfd on average (bullish).
• Sabine Pass LNG volumes are down ~0.08 bcfd YTD due to maintenance.
• Power demand is down -0.9 bcfd YTD (bearish), but forecasts suggest warming weather could lead to an inflection point.
• Permian dry gas production is up +1.8 bcfd YoY, with negative prices indicating full pipelines (bullish).
• Haynesville dry gas production is down -0.4 bcfd YoY (bullish).
• U.S. gas rig count is at 96 rigs (vs. 86 this time last year) (bullish).
• Haynesville rig count is up, with Expand, Aethon, and Citadel being the largest operators (bullish).
• Gas storage is ~12 bcf above the 5-year average (bearish).

Valuation and Investment Implications

• The authors maintain a price deck of $5/mcf for 2025, indicating a bullish outlook relative to the strip.
• The BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE includes ratings and price targets for several companies, with the following highlights:
  • APA Corp (M): Rating Market-Perform, price target $23.00, target EPS $3.91.
  • LNG (O): Rating Outperform, price target $266.00, target EPS $14.00.
  • CQP (M): Rating Market-Perform, price target $53.00, target EPS $4.40.
  • CVX (M): Rating Market-Perform, price target $168.00, target EPS $11.67.
  • COP (O): Rating Outperform, price target $120.00, target EPS $7.35.
  • DVN (O): Rating Outperform, price target $45.00, target EPS $3.67.
  • FANG (O): Rating Outperform, price target $200.00, target EPS $14.75.
  • EOG (M): Rating Market-Perform, price target $144.00, target EPS $10.15.
  • EQT (O): Rating Outperform, price target $74.00, target EPS $7.64.
  • XOM (O): Rating Outperform, price target $140.00, target EPS $9.62.
  • HES (O): Rating Outperform, price target $177.00, target EPS $10.51.
  • KOS (M): Rating Market-Perform, price target $2.50, target EPS $0.19.
  • KOS.LN (M): Rating Market-Perform, price target $188.00, target EPS $0.14.
  • VG (M): Rating Market-Perform, price target $12.00, target EPS $0.57.
  • SPX: Not rated.
  • EDM: Not rated.

Investment Implications

• The authors maintain a price deck of $5/mcf for 2025, indicating a bullish outlook.
• They highlight the potential acquisition of Aethon by Mitsubishi for ~$8bn, which could consolidate the Haynesville basin into public equity with a strong value focus.

Exhibits Summary

• Exhibit 1: Estimates the acquisition value of Aethon at $8bn, with PDPs and midstream contributing significantly to the deal value.
• Exhibit 2: Shows feedgas volumes are up +2.1 bcfd YTD.
• Exhibit 3: Indicates LNG projects are ramping by +1.7 bcfd on average.
• Exhibit 4: Notes feedgas volumes to Corpus Christi are similar to last year, with uncertainty around the CCS3 ramp.
• Exhibit 5: Shows Sabine Pass volumes are down ~0.08 bcfd YTD due to maintenance.
• Exhibit 6: Highlights power demand is down -0.9 bcfd YTD.
• Exhibit 7: Forecasts warming weather could boost power demand.
• Exhibit 8: Indicates Permian dry gas is up +1.8 bcfd YoY, with capacity constraints and a wide Waha diff.
• Exhibit 9: Shows Haynesville dry gas is down -0.4 bcfd YoY.
• Exhibit 10: Notes U.S. gas rig count is up to 96 rigs.
• Exhibit 11: Lists Haynesville rig counts by operator.
• Exhibit 12: Shows storage levels have recovered to 5-year average.
• Exhibit 13: Indicates a ~100 bcf shift in storage fill could impact gas prices by ~30c.
• Exhibit 14: Forecasts $5/mcf gas prices in 2025, bullish relative to the strip.

Ratings Definitions

Bernstein Brand

• Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than 15 pp.
• Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp.
• Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market index by more than 15 pp.
• Coverage Suspended: Ratings and price targets are suspended temporarily.
• Not Rated: A rating assigned when the stock cannot be accurately valued.

Autonomous Brand

• Outperform (OP): Stock will outpace the relevant index by more than 10 pp.
• Neutral (N): Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-10 pp.
• Underperform (UP): Stock will trail the performance of the relevant index by more than 10 pp.
• Not Rated: A rating assigned when the stock cannot be accurately valued.
• Feature: Core ideas from the firm.

Risk and Conflict of Interest

• The report includes disclosures regarding conflicts of interest and investment banking relationships.
• Certain affiliates of the firm beneficially own equity in the companies mentioned or have net long/short positions.
• The report is intended for institutional investors only and not subject to retail investor standards.

Distribution and Legal Information

• The report is distributed by Bernstein Institutional Services LLC in the U.S., Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited in Canada, and BSG France S.A. in France and other regions.
• The analysts are independent and not subject to FINRA restrictions.
• The document is certified to reflect the analyst's personal views and not influenced by compensation.

Conclusion

The report is bullish on the U.S. gas market, driven by LNG export growth, Permian production, and Haynesville discipline. It highlights the potential acquisition of Aethon by Mitsubishi and the bullish outlook for gas prices in 2025. The valuation methodology and ratings are provided for several energy and transition companies, with a focus on relative performance against market indices. The document also includes legal and compliance disclosures to ensure transparency and adherence to regulatory standards.