20240331-国信期货-宏观周报_3月官方制造业PMI重回扩张_1-2月工业企业利润相对恢复_21页_991kb

报告摘要

国信期货宏观周报总结：2024年3月数据回顾与4月展望

1. 经济数据亮点与风险分析

⚙ 制造业PMI重回扩张区间

3月官方制造业PMI回升至50.8%， 较2月上升1.7个百分点，结束连续5个月收缩，达12个月新高。

⚙ 工业企业利润显著反弹

2月利润率同比增长102%，产成品库存同比涨24%（较上季末高0.3pct），暗示供需矛盾变化。

⚙ 失业率与经济展望

3月失业率与非农数据待更新，美国经济数据季调初值为3.4%，基准利率维持高位。

⚙ 房地产边际放松信号

北京、深圳房地产交易限制政策取消（如“离婚限购”、“7090政策”），预计改善性住房需求将带动新商品房成交。

2. 特定市场更新

⚙ 商品与货币市场

外汇波动：日元和美元对冲交易活跃，美东日元汇差扩大，日本央行干预信号未明。
黄金、原油双双上涨录得超3%涨幅，而高风险资产如生猪肉制品指数仍承压。
金融资产交易所（金交所）业务资质被取消，流动性风险显现，政策或逐步全国统一。

⚙ 房地产数据微调

虽供给偏弱，但3月一线及强二线商品住房成交旺盛，金交所退出防范债务风险意在规范非标债务。

3. 大类资产表现

📈 A股与债市分化： A股市本周整体下跌（如上证综指-0.23%），国债期货上涨（超债基上浮1.06%，反映避险情绪）。

💱 外盘概况

美元指数略涨（+0.07%），人民币小幅贬值，欧元对人民币下行。
外贸卷入因素：中国航运指数（BDI）本周二次大跌，出口依赖型经济体需关注运价传导。

💱 市场动态：商品与货币

螺纹钢等工业金属周跌幅超5.5%，供需两端博弈激烈。
贵金属表现强势（如黄金上涨2.88%，沪金上扬3.67%）。

4. 美联储与汇率视角

美联储声明拒止降息，强调美国经济“强劲”与“适度通胀”。全球通胀态势仍保持高位。

5. 4月关注点预览

⚠ 关键日期： 下周级财报及通胀数据将提供美联储政策风向。
- 美国3月失业率与非农数字；
- 中国财新制造业PMI数据；
主要风险：
- 3月PPI不达预期，暗示复苏动能正在放缓。
- 地方金交所退出信号将影响行业规范进程。

📈关切制造业活力与通胀走势，从业如鲍威尔基调偏鹰，预期美联储原则7月议息会议开启降息。
Please analyze and summarize the following content, no emojis:

◼ March official manufacturing PMI restores signs of economic expansion: Caution amid ongoing increases in industrial enterprise profits, as per National Bureau of Statistics data on industrial profits from January to February 2024;

◼ Recent relaxing of real estate policies (including cancellation of限购 restrictions in Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen) signals intervention for inventory adjustment and speculation containment;

◼ Key observations on the macroeconomic outlook, including the U.S. Fed's stance on holding rates steady with relatively high inflation;

◼ Commodity markets showed mixed results: Supply chain adjustments, continued changes in gold, oil, and other asset classes, including resilience in sectors such as technology and industrial manufacturing;

◼ Asian equity performance lagged behind global rates adjustments while bonds showed increasing demand due to avoidance of high-yield assets given market volatility;

◼ China's ongoing structural reforms through fiscal and monetary policy provide support for infrastructure spending and financial stability programs.

Summary Points

Point 1: Economic activity has surged. March's manufacturing PMI reading indicated restored expansion after a prolonged contraction period.
Point 2: Retail sales and housing developments are fluctuating possibilities in the economy.
Point 3: Inventory management and inflation indicators still present challenges.
Point 4: Market sentiment is uncertain as risk assets megarise while sustained volatility prompts regulatory actions in international finance.
Point 5: The fiscal stimulus and government spending remain focal points for economic recovery in the near term.