2017第一季黄金需求趋势报告（英文版）_17页_988kb

Q1 2017 Global Gold Demand Summary

Core Content

Global gold demand in Q1 2017 totaled 1,034.5 tonnes, marking an 18% year-on-year decline from Q1 2016, which was the strongest first quarter on record. Despite this drop, certain sectors and regions showed resilience and growth, while others faced challenges due to economic and political factors.

Main Views and Key Information

Global Demand Overview

• Total gold demand in Q1 2017 was 1,034.5t, a 18% decrease compared to Q1 2016.
• ETF inflows were 109.1t, a 68% drop from Q1 2016’s 342.1t, but still strong compared to historical averages.
• Bar and coin demand rose 9% y-o-y to 289.8t, showing robustness in the investment segment.
• Jewellery demand remained relatively weak, though it increased slightly in some regions.
• Technology demand grew 3% y-o-y, with electronics being the main driver, albeit with some sector-specific declines.

Regional Highlights

Europe

• ETF inflows were the main driver of investment demand, with 92.4t added to European-listed products.
• Germany and the UK led ETF inflows, fueled by political uncertainty and safe-haven demand.
• Bar and coin demand was strong, especially in Germany, which saw a 13% increase.
• Central bank demand slowed to 76.3t, a 27% drop from Q1 2016, with China’s purchasing program on pause due to foreign exchange pressure.

India

• Jewellery demand increased 16% y-o-y to 480.9t, driven by improved liquidity and the wedding season.
• Bar and coin demand rose to 31.2t, though still below the five-year average.
• RBI's remonetisation and easing of withdrawal restrictions helped rural demand recover.
• Political uncertainty and the GST policy remain key concerns for the market.

China

• Jewellery demand fell 2% y-o-y to 176.5t, impacted by rising gold prices and changing consumer preferences.
• Bar and coin demand surged 30% y-o-y to 105.9t, driven by currency weakness, seasonal demand, and investment trends.
• Gold premium over the global spot price rose to US$14.2/oz, reflecting capital control effects and regulatory changes.
• Innovation in the gold market, such as interest-bearing gold products and digital platforms, is helping to attract millennial investors.

Other Asia

• Jewellery demand was down 9% in Japan and 5% in Thailand, due to rising gold prices and economic slowdowns.
• Vietnam saw a 6% increase in investment demand, supported by Chinese New Year and currency depreciation.
• Government measures in Thailand aimed to boost the domestic jewellery industry.

Middle East & Turkey

• Turkey’s demand dropped to a four-year low of 7.7t, due to currency weakness and political instability.
• Middle East demand was virtually unchanged at 54.6t, with Iran seeing a 27% increase.
• UAE maintained relatively robust demand despite a 5% import duty, as consumers rushed to buy before the tax impacted prices.

The West

• US jewellery demand fell 20% to 16.2t, with retail investors shifting to equity markets.
• European jewellery demand was down 6% y-o-y, with France and the UK being the weakest performers.
• German market led European bar and coin demand, showing 13% growth.
• ETF inflows in Europe were driven by political uncertainty and safe-haven demand.

Investment and ETF Trends

• ETF inflows were concentrated in Europe, with 109.1t added, reflecting strategic positioning.
• US ETF inflows were mixed, with a 45t net inflow in February, but outflows in January and March.
• Gold price movements were influenced by geopolitical tensions, with negative real yields in Europe and dovish Fed guidance in the US supporting demand.

Central Banks and Institutions

• Central bank demand for gold fell to 76.3t, a 27% decline from Q1 2016, but sales remained minimal.
• Russia increased gold reserves by 64.9t, raising its share to 17% of total reserves.
• China has not added to gold reserves since October 2016, likely due to foreign exchange pressures.
• Swap transactions were observed in Argentina and Hungary, with Argentina buying 6.9t and Hungary lending 3.1t.

Technology and Industrial Demand

• Technology demand grew 3% y-o-y to 78.5t, with electronics being the main driver.
• Electronics demand rose 4% to 62.1t, driven by wireless charging and VCSEL technology.
• LED demand declined due to miniaturisation and switch to CSP.
• Bonding wire demand remained resilient due to memory chip production.
• Research into new applications for gold, such as catalysts and wearable technology, suggests future growth.

Supply Overview

• Gold supply fell 12% y-o-y to 1,032t, due to lower recycling and net de-hedging.
• Mine production was unchanged at 764t, with new mines in the US and Suriname contributing slightly.
• China’s production was affected by extended New Year holidays and environmental restrictions.
• Indonesia had the largest impact on mine production, with Grasberg cutting output by 60% due to export restrictions.

Summary Table

Conclusion

While Q1 2017 saw a significant drop in global gold demand compared to the record-breaking Q1 2016, certain sectors and regions, particularly bar and coin investment and electronics demand, showed positive growth. Political uncertainty, economic conditions, and currency fluctuations played a major role in shaping demand, with Europe and India being notable for their ETF and retail investment activity. Central banks reduced their gold purchases, but sales remained minimal, indicating continued strategic interest in gold as a reserve asset. Innovation in both investment and industrial applications is expected to support future demand.