世界银行-2020年秋季西巴尔干地区经济报告：不确定的复苏（英文）-2020.10-92页

Summary of the Western Balkans Regular Economic Report No.18: An Uncertain Recovery

Core Content

The Western Balkans Regular Economic Report No.18 provides an analysis of the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the region, focusing on recession, labor market conditions, poverty, fiscal challenges, inflation, financial sector resilience, external imbalances, and structural reforms needed for a sustainable recovery.

Main Points

1. Economic Impact of the Pandemic

• The Western Balkans experienced a deep recession in 2020, with the region's GDP projected to contract by 4.8%, a 1.7% drop from the Spring 2020 forecast.
• The primary drivers of the recession are:
  • Drop in domestic and foreign demand
  • Disruptions in supply chains
  • Impact of lockdowns on economic activity
• A second wave of the pandemic and political uncertainty in some countries have delayed recovery.
• The summer tourism season was largely lost due to travel restrictions and social distancing, hitting Albania, Kosovo, and Montenegro the hardest.

2. Labor Market Disruptions

• Unemployment rose across the region, with an estimated 0.5 percentage point increase by June 2020.
• Over 139,000 jobs were lost, and employers reduced work hours.
• Job support schemes and government measures have contained the labor market fallout, helping to prevent larger spikes in poverty.
• Poverty increase is estimated at over 300,000 people in Albania, Kosovo, Montenegro, and Serbia, but less than half of what would have occurred without these measures.

3. Poverty and Social Protection

• The crisis interrupted progress on poverty reduction and household income growth.
• Social protection systems in the region responded with cash transfer programs, which are expected to lessen the impact on poverty.
• Government consumption increased, but total consumption is still expected to reduce growth in most countries.

4. Fiscal Challenges

• Fiscal deficits are projected to reach record highs, with Serbia having the largest package.
• Deficits are expected to be 4–10% of GDP in most countries, and almost 12% for Montenegro.
• Public and publicly guaranteed debt is expected to peak at 60% in North Macedonia and Serbia, 81.3% in Albania, and 97.9% in Montenegro in 2021.
• Fiscal rules are critical to ensuring debt reduction and fiscal sustainability in the medium term.

5. Inflation and Monetary Policy

• Inflation fell in the early months of the pandemic but varied dramatically by July 2020.
• Food and oil prices were the main drivers of inflation volatility.
• Central banks lowered policy rates to support the economy, and currency movements against the euro were limited for most countries.

6. Financial Sector Resilience

• Banks remain adequately capitalized, and non-performing loans (NPLs) have paused their downward trend since December 2020.
• Credit growth has been positive in most countries, and corporate loan growth has accelerated compared to pre-COVID trends.
• Prudential measures were implemented to resume lending and support firms affected by the crisis.

7. External Imbalances

• External deficits have widened in all Western Balkan countries.
• Inward processing trade initially plummeted but has recovered somewhat.
• Manufacturing exports linked to global value chains have been most affected, while diversification of export products and markets is highly feasible.
• FDI has plunged, putting pressure on current account balances.

8. Path to Recovery

• Resilient recovery will depend on strengthening fundamentals and sustained reforms.
• The total output loss is expected to be fully recovered by 2022, but growth resilience must be built through structural reforms.
• Productivity growth in the private sector is key to sustainable recovery.
• Adoption of new technologies and business models is necessary to align with post-pandemic realities.

Key Economic Indicators

Structural Barriers to Recovery

• Inefficient and unequal regulation and corruption hinder business competitiveness and innovation.
• Only 30–50% of formal firms in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and North Macedonia had adopted new products or services in the three years before the crisis.
• Albania, Kosovo, and Montenegro lagged behind, with only 20–30% of firms adopting new business models.
• Firms in Albania, Kosovo, and BiH were more likely to be limited by licensing and tax administration.
• Corruption is a major barrier to growth, with 56% of firms in Kosovo and 43% in Albania citing it as a major constraint.
• Bribery is a common practice, especially in tax and licensing processes, with Albania having the highest rate at 35%.

Outlook and Recommendations

• Fiscal sustainability and financial sector stability will be crucial for domestic recovery.
• Political stability, especially in BiH and Albania, will influence the pace of economic recovery.
• Resilient recovery requires:
  • Sustained reform to improve public spending and investment
  • Structural policies to enhance export competitiveness
  • Adoption of new technologies and business models
  • Improved regulatory enforcement and reduced corruption

The report emphasizes the importance of structural reforms and private sector adaptation for long-term economic resilience.