世界银行-西巴尔干定期经济报告——2021年春季：经济复苏乏力（英文）-2021.4-96页_1mb

Western Balkans Regular Economic Report No.19 - Subdued Recovery

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the economic developments, challenges, and policy responses in the Western Balkans during the Spring of 2021, focusing on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the path to recovery.

Main Points

1. Overview of the Economic Situation

• The Western Balkans experienced a severe recession in 2020, with an estimated contraction of 3.4%.
• The primary causes of the economic downturn were a drop in domestic and foreign demand, and supply chain disruptions.
• The region began to recover in Q3 2020, supported by eased lockdowns and the revival of global demand.
• The recovery remained subdued due to renewed restrictions in late 2020 and the early stage of vaccine rollout.

2. The Western Balkans Endured a Severe Recession

• The pandemic caused deep recessions, with Montenegro being the hardest-hit country.
• Tourism-dependent economies were particularly affected, with Montenegro suffering a 90% collapse in tourism, leading to a 15.2% GDP contraction.
• Serbia and Albania managed to outperform earlier growth expectations due to stimulus packages and reconstruction efforts.
• Economic contraction impacted all components of aggregate demand, including private consumption and investment.

3. The Labor Market is Rebounding from the Depths of the Recession

• The labor market indicators showed a decline during the pandemic but began to recover.
• Employment rates dropped from 44.6% in December 2019 to 43.2% by end-2020.
• The largest employment declines were in Montenegro (7.9 pp) and Albania (1.8 pp).
• Job losses were most severe in construction, manufacturing, hotels and restaurants, trade, and transport.
• Youth unemployment rose to 33.6%, disrupting a 5-year declining trend.

4. Government Responses Softened the Economic and Poverty Impacts of the Pandemic

• Governments introduced various measures, including job retention schemes, tax relief, and social assistance, to mitigate the effects of the pandemic.
• These efforts limited the labor market fallout and prevented steeper spikes in poverty.
• By year-end, the labor market had recovered half its pandemic losses, but many people remain unemployed or have dropped out of the labor force.

5. Fiscal Support Continues After Unprecedented Expansion

• Fiscal deficits in all six Western Balkan countries deteriorated significantly in 2020, reaching 6 to 8% of GDP for most and 11% for Montenegro.
• In 2021, deficits will remain high due to ongoing budget needs, especially for vaccine deployment.
• Public debt levels are expected to rise, with North Macedonia at 64.7%, Albania at 77.3%, and Montenegro at 93.8% of GDP.

6. Inflation Fell Markedly Because of the Pandemic

• Inflation remained subdued across the region due to the pandemic's impact on demand and supply.
• Monetary policy was eased to support demand, but exchange rates against the euro remained relatively stable.

7. COVID-19 is Testing Financial Sector Resilience

• Non-performing loans (NPLs) showed a slight downward trend, supported by borrower relief and regulatory measures.
• Banks entered the pandemic with strong capital buffers, but the situation could worsen as fiscal and monetary support is withdrawn.

8. External Imbalances Widen but There Are Prospects for Improvement

• Current account deficits worsened in most countries, except Serbia.
• Net FDI declined in several WB6 countries, and remittance losses were significant in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Albania.
• The decline in net exports was a major contributor to Montenegro's recession.

9. Economic Recovery Hinges on the Vaccine Rollout

• Recovery is expected to gain momentum in 2021 with the rollout of vaccines.
• Economic activity is projected to grow by 4.4% in 2021 but will still be 6% below pre-pandemic trends.
• Growth is likely to moderate to 3.7% in 2022 and 2023 due to lingering pandemic damage.

10. Spotlight: Informality in the Western Balkans

• Informality remains a major issue in the region, with high tax and fiscal informality.
• Informal firms pose a challenge to formal firms, and the pandemic exacerbated this issue.
• Digitalization and green investment are seen as potential tools to reduce informality and boost productivity.

Key Economic Indicators

• GDP contraction in 2020: -3.4%
• Unemployment rate: 12.9% (down 0.6 pp from 2019)
• Youth unemployment: 33.6% (up 1.4 pp from 2019)
• Public debt levels: 64.7% in North Macedonia, 77.3% in Albania, 93.8% in Montenegro

Conclusion and Policy Recommendations

• Policy efforts must remain focused on fighting the pandemic, limiting social damage, and nurturing recovery.
• Ensuring healthcare systems are adequately resourced is critical, including vaccine procurement and distribution.
• Public health efforts should be paired with well-designed economic policies tailored to each country's situation.
• Fiscal sustainability will be a key priority as recovery takes hold.
• Investment in education, digitalization, and green infrastructure is essential for long-term, resilient growth.