世界银行-西巴尔干定期经济报告第24期，2023年秋季：迈向可持续增长（英）-116页_2mb

Executive Summary: Western Balkans Regular Economic Report (Fall 2023)

The 2023 Regular Economic Report for the Western Balkans highlights several key developments and prospects for the six countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia.

Overall Economic Trends:

• Growth Moderation: Economic growth decelerated in 2023 compared to the strong post-pandemic recovery in 2021 and 2022, primarily due to weaker exports and consumption led by sluggish EU performance. WB6 region GDP growth slowed to an estimated 2.5 percent for 2023.
• Inflation Continued Declining but Remained High: Average consumer price inflation reached 8.4 percent in July 2023, down from its peak of around 15% in 2022, but price pressures persist, particularly in services and food items. Most WB countries are projecting inflation to return to medium-term targets around 3-4% annually by 2025.
• Improving External Balances: Despite elevated merchandise trade deficits, external sector conditions improved, with current account deficits narrowing significantly across the region due to sound primary balances and robust net foreign direct investment inflows.
• Financial Sector Resilience: Banks remain sound with declining nonperforming loans (NPLs), improving profitability, and strong capital buffers despite tighter monetary conditions.
• Labor Market Strength: Employment levels reached historical highs across most countries, with cooling ongoing in some.

Country Performance:

• Albania: Growth slowed slightly to 3.6% in 2023 while external balances improved; high inflation showed convergence toward targets toward year-end.
• Serbia: Growth could decelerate to 2.0% in 2023 amid high inflation pressures despite a narrowing CAD and strong FDI inflows.
• North Macedonia: Growth is projected at 1.8% in 2023 despite fiscal challenges; external deficits eased with a narrowing CAD; fiscal consolidation needed to avoid downgrading growth outlooks.
• Kosovo: Sees GDP growth at 3.2% in 2023, supported by strong services exports and remittances.
• Montenegro: Remains the strongest performer with growth estimated at 4.8% in 2023.
• Bosnia and Herzegovina: Expects growth of 2.2% in 2023 amid inflation persistence and external vulnerabilities.

Outlook and Risks:

• Growth is expected to moderate in 2023 before gradually recovering to about 3% between 2024-2025.
• Support for reforms is critical to unlocking faster convergence toward EU peer performance.
• Major risks include prolonged low growth in major trading partners, inflation persistence, funding constraints, and political risks.

This summary captures the core findings and outlook presented in the Western Balkans Regular Economic Report, Fall 2023.