2013年-世界发展银行全球_Kyrgyz_Republic___Overview_of_Climate_Change_Activities_18页_643kb

Kyrgyz Republic Climate Change Activities Summary

Core Content

The Kyrgyz Republic is a landlocked country in Central Asia, bordered by Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and China. Over 80% of its territory is part of the Tian-Shan mountain range, with 4% covered by glaciers. Due to its geography, most of the population and economic activity are concentrated in the valley and foothill zones. The country has a high vulnerability to climate change, ranking third in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region based on an index of vulnerability.

Key Climate Trends and Projections

• Temperature Increase: Annual and winter temperatures have increased by approximately 0.8°C since the beginning of the 20th century. Projections suggest an average temperature rise of 2°C by 2060 and 4–5°C by 2100.
• Seasonal Variations: Summer temperatures are expected to rise more sharply than winter temperatures, leading to longer cooling seasons and shorter heating seasons.
• Precipitation Changes: Summer precipitation is projected to decrease, while winter precipitation may increase. This shift is likely to have more severe impacts on sectors such as agriculture.
• Glacier Decline: The Tian-Shan glaciers, a critical water source, have been declining sharply, especially over the past two decades. This will lead to increased surface water flow between 2020 and 2025, followed by significant reductions, affecting water availability and other sectors.

National Policy and Institutional Context

Policies

• The National Strategy for Sustainable Development (2013–2017) outlines the country's vision to become a developed, law-governed nation with sustainable economic growth. It emphasizes climate change considerations in natural resource management and economic development.
• The Second National Communication to the UNFCCC identifies key adaptation measures, including improving legislation, strengthening institutional coordination, developing capacity, and providing economic incentives for adaptation.
• The National Adaptation Strategy is being developed to provide a framework for adaptation across energy, transport, health, agriculture, and industry sectors.

Institutions

• The Climate Change Coordination Committee (CCCC), chaired by the Vice Prime Minister, coordinates interministerial and cross-sectoral activities related to climate change.
• The State Agency on Environmental Protection and Forestry serves as the secretariat for the CCCC and has a role in coordinating ministries.
• Despite a formal institutional structure, there are challenges in coordination, implementation, and strategic thinking based on scientific and economic analysis.

Development Partners' Engagement in Climate-Sensitive Sectors

Energy

• The energy sector is dominated by hydropower, which accounts for about 90% of the generating capacity. Climate change threatens this sector by reducing water flow and increasing energy demand.
• The World Bank supports reforms and investments through projects like the Electricity Supply Accountability and Reliability Improvement Project and the CASA-1000 initiative to develop export markets.
• The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is working on Power Sector Rehabilitation to improve energy supply and reduce losses.
• The UNDP and USAID support energy efficiency and renewable energy projects, such as Improving Energy Efficiency in Buildings and Regional Energy Security, Efficiency and Trade (RESET).

Agriculture

• Agriculture contributes about 25% to GDP and 33% to employment, with most of the population and poor relying on it for livelihoods.
• Climate change is expected to increase aridity, desertification, and reduce pasture quality and availability.
• The World Bank has implemented projects such as the Second On-Farm Irrigation Project and the Agricultural Productivity Assistance Project, which have improved irrigation systems, pasture management, and agricultural productivity.
• The FAO and GEF have supported projects to promote sustainable practices and improve information exchange in agriculture and livestock production.
• The EU and USAID have also engaged in capacity-building and infrastructure development to enhance resilience.

Forestry

• Forests cover 8,649 km², with additional areas for plantations and sparse forests.
• Climate change threatens forest ecosystems by shifting ecological zones and reducing forest resources.
• The GEF-funded Sustainable Management of Mountainous Forest and Land Resources project aims to improve sustainable forest and land management, enhance carbon stocks, and promote climate-friendly agriculture.
• The FAO and UNDP have implemented projects focused on capacity building, monitoring, and community involvement in forest management.

Looking Ahead

The document identifies several urgent initial actions for the Kyrgyz Republic to mainstream climate considerations into development planning and activities:

• Improve science-based understanding of climate change impacts and vulnerabilities.
• Estimate the cost of inaction and identify key actions across sectors.
• Design and implement climate-smart solutions at national and subnational levels, and promote regional cooperation.
• Strengthen the Climate Change Coordination Committee (CCCC) and the State Agency on Environmental Protection and Forestry.
• Establish a Regional Central Asian Steering Committee to enhance political support and coordination.

Conclusion

The Kyrgyz Republic faces significant climate change challenges, particularly in sectors such as agriculture, energy, and water resources. While there are existing policies and institutional frameworks, coordination, implementation, and strategic planning remain key challenges. Development partners have made substantial contributions, but further integration and collaboration are needed to ensure effective climate adaptation and mitigation strategies.