2013年-世界发展银行全球_Economics_of_Climate_Change_in_the_Arab_World___Case_Studies_from_the_Syrian_Arab_Republic_Tunisia_and_the_Republic_of_Yemen_155页_7mb

Summary of Economics of Climate Change in the Arab World: Case Studies from the Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, and the Republic of Yemen

Core Content

This World Bank study examines the economic impacts of climate change in three Arab countries: the Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, and the Republic of Yemen. It provides detailed case studies and analysis to highlight the challenges and potential adaptation strategies for these regions.

Main Points

• Climate Change is Happening Now: The Arab region is already experiencing the effects of climate change, including increased temperatures, more frequent and intense extreme weather events, and water scarcity. These changes are threatening livelihoods, food security, and human well-being.

• Economic Impacts: Climate change is projected to significantly reduce agricultural productivity and household incomes in the region. In Syria and Tunisia, the cumulative reduction in household incomes could reach nearly US$2 billion, while in Yemen, it could be as high as US$9 billion over the next 30–40 years.

• Key Sectors Affected: The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable due to its reliance on water and climate-sensitive crops. Droughts in Syria and floods in Yemen have had severe impacts on GDP, food security, and rural livelihoods.

• Adaptation Strategies: The report emphasizes the need for integrating climate change adaptation into national development strategies, policies, and investment plans. It also highlights the importance of agricultural and rural development, social protection, and disaster risk management.

• Methodology: The study uses a combination of biophysical and economic models, including the Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (DCGE) model, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT), and the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). These models are used to project changes in crop yields, GDP, and household income under different climate scenarios.

• Data Sources: The analysis is based on data from the Syrian Agricultural Database (SADB), the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES), and climate data from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN).

Key Information

Syria

• Drought Impacts: Droughts have led to significant reductions in agricultural GDP and household incomes. The 1999–2001 drought had a severe impact on crop yields, livestock numbers, and rural poverty.

• Projected Changes: By 2050, Syria is expected to experience higher temperatures and lower rainfall, which will further strain agricultural production and increase the risk of food insecurity.

• Poverty and Migration: The report suggests that the lack of adaptation opportunities in rural areas may lead to increased urban migration, with the urban population share expected to rise from 56% to 75% by 2050.

Tunisia

• Climate Vulnerability: Tunisia is expected to face a long-term reduction in water supplies and increased frequency of extreme weather events, which will negatively affect agriculture and economic stability.

• Economic Impacts: The study shows that climate change could lead to a decline in agricultural GDP and household income, particularly in the context of global and local climate change scenarios.

• Adaptation Needs: The report recommends integrating climate change into national strategies, policies, and investment plans to build resilience and ensure sustainable development.

Yemen

• Flood Impacts: Floods in Yemen, particularly in zones 4 and 5, have caused significant losses in agricultural GDP and human well-being. The 2008 Hadramout flash flood is highlighted as a major event affecting cropland, livestock, and fisheries.

• Food Insecurity: Climate change is exacerbating food insecurity, especially in rural areas. The report projects that changes in rainfall and temperature will have a lasting impact on food production and security.

• Social and Economic Consequences: The study emphasizes the need for social protection policies and disaster risk management strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change on vulnerable populations.

Conclusion and Proposed Actions

• Global Action Plan: The report advocates for a global action plan that includes climate change in national strategies, policies, and investment plans. This is essential for building resilience and ensuring sustainable development in the Arab region.

• Policy Integration: Climate change adaptation should be integrated into all development activities and government planning. This includes agricultural and rural development, social protection, and disaster risk management.

• Cobenefits of Adaptation: Investing in climate adaptation can lead to development cobenefits, such as job creation and green growth, while also addressing climate vulnerabilities.

• Need for Collaboration: Governments, with support from the private sector and civil society, should collaborate to develop and implement effective adaptation strategies.

Appendices and Methodology

• Appendix A: Provides agronomic inputs used in the DSSAT model for the Syrian Arab Republic.

• Appendix B: Describes the methodology for aggregating pixel data to agroecological zones in Syria.

• Appendix C: Maps crop activities from DSSAT and IMPACT models to the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) sectors.

• Appendix D: Includes supplementary model tables for Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen, showing the structure of the economy, agricultural value added, and income distribution under different climate scenarios.

• Appendix E: Contains nutrition model tables for Yemen, focusing on per capita calorie consumption.

• Appendix F: Provides temperature and rainfall projections by agroecological zones in Yemen.

Figures and Tables

• Figures: Include climate change scenarios, drought and flood impacts, and projected changes in temperature and rainfall.

• Tables: Present data on economic structure, agricultural value added, income sources, yield changes, and poverty impacts under different climate scenarios.

Editors and Contributors

• Dorte Verner and Clemens Breisinger are the editors of the report. They are leading experts in climate change and development economics.

• The report was authored by a team of researchers from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and other institutions, including experts in agricultural economics, environmental science, and policy analysis.

Rights and Permissions

• The report is published under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license (CC BY 3.0), allowing for free use with proper attribution.

• The World Bank does not claim ownership of all content and does not warrant the accuracy of data or the legal status of any territory depicted in the report.

Acknowledgments

• The report acknowledges the contributions of numerous researchers, consultants, and institutions, including the World Bank, IFPRI, and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

• It also thanks peer reviewers and support staff for their assistance in the production and review of the report.