2013年-世界发展银行全球_Turkmenistan___Overview_of_Climate_Change_Activities_15页_533kb

报告摘要

Summary of Climate Change Activities in Turkmenistan

Core Content

This document provides an overview of Turkmenistan's climate context, national policy and institutional framework, and the engagement of development partners in climate-sensitive sectors. It outlines key challenges and suggests potential ways forward to integrate climate considerations into national development planning and create public demand for climate actions.

I. Climate Context: Understanding the Implications

Overview and Historical Trends

Geography: Turkmenistan is located in western Central Asia, bordered by Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Iran.
Terrain: Over 80% of the territory is desert or semi-desert, with 20% mountainous.
Climate: It has a sharply continental, extremely dry and hot climate.
Temperature: The northern region experiences severe winters with temperatures fluctuating between 13°C and 16°C, while the southern region has milder winters with temperatures between 18°C and 22°C. During the warm period (May to September), temperatures often exceed 40°C, occasionally reaching 50°C in the southeast.
Historical Trends: Average mean temperature has increased by 1.4°C since the 1950s. Precipitation has slightly increased in recent years, especially in spring, but decreased in summer. The country is experiencing greater variability in monthly precipitation.

Climate Projections

Temperature: By 2040, temperatures are expected to rise by 2°C, and this increase may accelerate after 2040.
Precipitation: Precipitation is expected to increase slightly by 2040, but decrease by 8–17% between 2040 and 2100.
Water Availability: The decrease in precipitation and increase in temperature will lead to reduced water availability, especially for irrigation. The Amudarya River's runoff is expected to decline by 10–15% by 2050, and other rivers by 5–8% by 2030.
Extreme Weather Events: The frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events are expected to increase, including flash floods and mudflows (10% annually), heavy rains (5% annually), and intense heat periods (1.6% annually).

II. National Policy and Institutional Context for Addressing and Adapting to Climate Change

Policies

The National Climate Change Strategy (2012) outlines a policy framework for climate resilience and low-emission development.
Turkmenistan ratified the UNFCCC (1995) and Kyoto Protocol (1998), and has submitted First and Second National Communications (2006, 2010), with the Third National Communication under preparation.
Key mitigation policies include:
- Increasing fuel efficiency in power plants.
- Increasing the share of natural gas in the energy balance.
- Promoting renewable energy sources.
- Improving energy efficiency in municipal services and residential/industrial sectors.
Adaptation policies include improving agricultural and forest management practices and enhancing monitoring and management of hydrometeorological services.

Institutions

Ministry of Nature Protection: Coordinates environmental activities and prepares materials for the State Commission.
National Institute of Deserts, Flora and Fauna (NIDFF): Conducts research on flora, fauna, and desertification.
Center of Ecological Monitoring: Monitors environmental pollution and implements conservation measures.
Center to Combat Desertification: Coordinates measures to combat desertification.
State Commission on Climate Change: An interagency body that coordinates and oversees climate change policies and activities.
National Hydrometeorology Committee: Conducts meteorological, hydrological, and agrometeorological monitoring.

Challenges:

Insufficient coordination and harmonization among legislative documents.
Weak implementation and enforcement of policies and secondary legislation.
Ambiguous roles and responsibilities of the State Commission.

III. Overview of Development Partners' Engagement in Climate-Sensitive Sectors

Energy

Turkmenistan has the largest gas reserves among former Soviet republics (22.9 trillion cubic meters).
The energy sector accounts for 87% of total GHG emissions, with the oil and gas complex contributing the most.
Key Projects:
- ADB: Provided technical assistance for the Afghanistan-Turkmenistan Regional Power Interconnection Project.
- UNDP: Implemented a project to improve energy efficiency in the residential sector, focusing on building design and energy-saving measures.

Agriculture

Agriculture contributes 20% to GDP and is crucial for food security and raw material supply.
The sector is highly dependent on irrigation (1.7 million hectares).
Key Risks:
- Increased aridity and desertification.
- Water scarcity impacting natural grasslands and sheep-breeding.
Key Projects:
- FAO and UNDP: Implemented projects on irrigation, planting techniques, and locust management.
- UNDP: Addressing climate change risks to farming systems, with a focus on water management and community adaptation.

Forestry

8.8% of the land (4.1 million hectares) is forested, containing 12 million metric tons of carbon.
Forests are ecologically significant in the arid climate.
Key Challenges:
- Increased risk of forest fires, pests, and diseases due to longer and drier dry seasons.
- Changing temperature and precipitation patterns may affect forest growth and carbon storage.
Key Projects:
- National Forest Program: Planting 3 million trees in 2013, focusing on areas affected by desertification.
- GIZ: Implemented a sustainable management project for pasture and forest resources since 2002.

Water

Total water resources are 25 cubic kilometers per year, with the Amudarya River providing 90% of surface water.
Key Risks:
- Water shortages due to inefficient use and climate change impacts.
- Reduction in river flows will affect irrigation and, consequently, agricultural productivity, especially cotton.
Key Projects:
- UNDP: Addressing climate change risks to farming systems through improved water management at national and community levels.

Transport

The transport sector includes automobile, railway, air, river, sea, and pipeline networks.
Key Risks:
- Damage to infrastructure due to extreme weather events (heat waves, floods, and changes in Caspian Sea levels).
Key Projects:
- ADB: North-South Railway Project to improve regional connectivity and trade.

Health

Health is a key sector vulnerable to climate change, with risks including heat stroke, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, water-borne illnesses, and others.
Key Projects:
- World Bank Group: Project on avian influenza preparedness and control.
- WHO: Projects on malaria elimination and tuberculosis treatment.
- USAID: Projects on climate change and health impacts.

IV. Conclusions and Looking Ahead

Urgent Initial Actions

Improve Science-Based Understanding: Develop a better understanding of climate change impacts under different scenarios.
Estimate Cost of Inaction: Provide economic arguments for climate-smart actions across sectors.
Design and Implement Climate-Smart Solutions: Promote regional cooperation and institutional building.
Strengthen the State Commission: Establish a cross-sectoral technical working group to ensure effective implementation.
Establish a Regional Steering Committee: To provide political support and coordinate regional efforts on climate change.

Recommendations

Clarify the roles and responsibilities of the State Commission and its legal status.
Enhance interministerial collaboration and policy implementation.
Improve coordination among development partners to ensure a comprehensive and effective climate response.

Key Information

Climate: Continental, dry, and hot with significant regional temperature differences.
GHG Emissions: Energy sector is the largest contributor (87% of total emissions).
Water Resources: Amudarya River is the main source, but climate change threatens its flow and availability.
Agriculture: Vulnerable to water scarcity and desertification.
Forestry: Faces increased fire risk and potential changes in growth patterns.
Policy Development: Ongoing but with challenges in implementation and coordination.
Development Partners: ADB, UNDP, FAO, GIZ, WHO, and USAID are involved in various projects across sectors.