2013年-世界发展银行全球_Uzbekistan___Overview_of_Climate_Change_Activities_18页_671kb

Uzbekistan Climate Change Activities Summary

Core Content

Uzbekistan is a landlocked country in Central Asia, with a population of 29.78 million (2012) and a GDP of $51.11 billion. The country faces significant climate change challenges, including rising temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and water scarcity, which are expected to worsen over the coming decades. These changes have implications across multiple sectors, particularly agriculture, water, energy, and health.

Main Points and Key Information

Climate Context

• Historical Trends:

  • Uzbekistan has experienced warming rates more than twice the global average since 1951.
  • The number of days with temperatures below -15°C and -20°C has decreased significantly in the northern and mountainous regions.
  • Precipitation is modest in deserts and steppes, with most occurring during the cold season (September–March), while the warm season (April–August) is extremely arid.

• Climate Projections:

  • Average temperature increase is projected to be 2–3°C over the next 50 years.
  • Precipitation is expected to increase slightly in some regions, but the decrease in summer and fall precipitation could negatively impact sectors like agriculture.
  • Water flow in the Syrdarya River Basin is expected to decrease by 2–5%, and in the Amudarya River Basin by 10–15% by 2050.
  • Climate change is projected to reduce crop yields by 20–50% by 2050 without adaptation, threatening food security and rural livelihoods.
  • Increased temperatures and water scarcity could worsen health issues such as waterborne diseases, dust storms, and heat stress.

National Policy and Institutional Context

• Climate Policies:

  • Uzbekistan lacks a comprehensive national climate change policy.
  • There are several environmental policies and programs that touch on climate adaptation and mitigation, but they are fragmented and uncoordinated.
  • The National Strategy on Sustainable Development (1999) outlines key goals related to climate change, including environmental protection and sustainable development.

• Legal Framework:

  • Uzbekistan signed the UNFCCC in 1993 and ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 1999.
  • The Centre of Hydrometeorology (Uzhydromet) is the designated national authority for CDM.
  • The First and Second National Communications to the UNFCCC have been prepared, with the Third currently in development.

• Institutional Structure:

  • The Cabinet of Ministers coordinates climate-related activities.
  • Key institutions include Uzhydromet, the Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources, the Ministry of Emergency Situations, and the State Committee for Nature Protection.
  • There is no centralized coordinating body for climate adaptation, which poses challenges in implementing effective policies.

Development Partners' Engagement

• Energy:

  • Uzbekistan is rich in energy resources, including natural gas, coal, and oil.
  • The power sector contributes significantly to CO₂ emissions, accounting for about 35% of total emissions from fuel combustion.
  • Development partners such as the World Bank and Asian Development Bank (ADB) are involved in energy projects aimed at improving efficiency and infrastructure.
  • The World Bank has supported projects like the Energy Efficiency Facility for Industrial Enterprises, Talimarjan Transmission Project, and Advanced Electricity Metering Project.
  • ADB has led 8 out of 17 energy-related activities, including the Kandym Gas Field Development and Talimarjan Power Project.
  • The country is also developing a low-emission strategy and has initiated a NAMA on energy-efficient lighting.

• Agriculture:

  • Over 85% of cropland is irrigated due to the arid climate.
  • Climate change threatens agricultural productivity and food security, with projected yield reductions of 20–50% by 2050.
  • Development partners support agricultural projects to improve water use efficiency, drainage, and irrigation systems.
  • The World Bank is implementing projects such as the Drainage, Irrigation and Wetlands Improvement Phase-I Project and the Ferghana Valley Water Resources Management Project.
  • A GEF grant supports the Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change Mitigation Project, focusing on renewable energy and degraded land restoration.

• Other Sectors:

  • Water: Water scarcity is expected to worsen due to declining river flows and increased irrigation demand.
  • Health: Increased temperatures and reduced water availability are linked to a rise in waterborne diseases and health risks from extreme weather.
  • Transport: Climate change could affect infrastructure and operations, particularly in relation to extreme weather events.
  • Disaster Risk Reduction: Institutional capacity for disaster preparedness and response is limited, and more coordination is needed.

Looking Ahead

• Urgent Actions:

  • Improve science-based understanding of climate change impacts and adaptation needs.
  • Estimate the cost of inaction and identify key actions across sectors to support climate-smart development.
  • Design and implement climate-smart solutions at national and regional levels.
  • Establish a National Steering Committee on Climate Change to integrate climate considerations into development planning.
  • Create a Regional Central Asian Steering Committee to foster collaboration and institutional building among the five Central Asian countries.

• Future Directions:

  • Strengthen coordination and institutional capacity for climate action.
  • Enhance the implementation of existing policies and programs.
  • Focus on regional cooperation and integration of climate resilience into development planning.

Conclusion

Uzbekistan faces substantial climate change challenges that require urgent and coordinated action. While there are existing policies and development partner initiatives, the lack of a comprehensive national strategy and institutional coordination remains a barrier to effective climate adaptation and mitigation. Strengthening these areas is essential for ensuring sustainable development and enhancing resilience to climate impacts.