20151005-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_O_il___Gas_11页_745kb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Market Summary

Core Content

The document provides an overview of the regional oil and gas market as of 2 October 2015, highlighting price movements, production trends, and company-specific reports. It also includes valuation metrics for various companies in the region.

Price Movements

Brent Crude Oil: Rose by 0.9% to USD48.13/b, but ended the week lower.
WTI Crude Oil: Increased by 1.8% to USD45.54/b, also ended the week lower.
Dubai Fateh Spot: Declined by 3.2% to USD45.70/b.
China Daqing Spot: Dropped by 4.0% to USD41.58/b.
NYMEX Henry Hub: Rose by 0.7% to USD2.45/MMBtu.
LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Fell by 4.0% to USD6.67/MMBtu.
Singapore 92 RON Spot: Remained flat at USD59.82/b.
Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Declined by 1.7% to USD58.50/b.
3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Increased by 2.1% to USD241.43/mt.
Gold: Rose by 2.2% to USD1,138.60/Oz.
USD-CNY: No change at 6.36.
DJI: Increased by 1.2% to 16,472.37.
S&P 500: Rose by 1.4% to 1,951.36.

Key News Headlines

Crude rises but ends week lower: Crude prices rebounded on Friday but remained lower for the week, influenced by a report on the decline in US oil rig count and economic data.
Saudi Aramco Cuts Crude Pricing: Saudi Arabia reduced crude prices to Asia and the U.S. to remain competitive, with a significant discount increase to Asia.
Producers Reduce U.S. Rigs: The U.S. oil industry reached a five-year low in drilling rigs due to weak demand and reduced activity.
China's Deepest Gas Field: The Yuanba gas field in Sichuan is set to come online, expected to produce 3.4 billion cubic meters annually.
Russian Oil Output: Reached a post-Soviet high in September, contributing to global oil glut and affecting prices.

Our Latest Reports

Perisai Petroleum: Farms out PP 101 to Hess, with a SELL rating. The DCR is USD99k for 9+1 months, and forecasts remain unchanged.
Trans-Asia Oil & Energy Development: SLTEC coal plant is on track, with a BUY rating. Unit 2 is undergoing commissioning and testing.
PetroVietnam Gas: Higher risks factored in, with a BUY rating. The target price is VND55,000, and dry-gas pricing assumptions were lowered.
Yinson Holdings: No surprises; resilient in growth, with a BUY rating. The target price is MYR4.35, offering 50% upside.

Company Valuations

Company	Ticker	Maybank KE Rating	Price 2-Oct	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USD b)	90D T/O (USD m)	PER 2015E	PER 2016E	EV/EBITDA 2015E	EV/EBITDA 2016E	ROE %	P/BV (x)	Yield (%)
PetroChina - H	857 HK	Sell	5.54	4.80	224.8	94.0	24.3	42.4	6.4	7.1	2.9	0.7	1.8
Sinopec - H	386 HK	Buy	4.86	6.00	87.3	75.0	11.8	12.8	5.4	5.7	6.5	0.8	4.1
CNOOC LTD	883 HK	Buy	8.18	11.70	47.1	88.3	15.0	17.8	3.9	4.1	5.1	0.8	0.9
New Ocean Energy	342 HK	Buy	2.92	7.70	0.6	1.0	4.1	3.3	4.0	2.7	19.0	0.7	2.4
ONGC	ONGC IN	NR	232.4	NR	30.3	18.1	8.4	8.3	4.4	4.1	13.3	1.1	4.2
Reliance Industries	RIL IN	NR	864.7	NR	42.7	53.8	11.6	10.9	10.1	8.9	11.2	1.2	1.1
Cairn India	CAIR IN	Hold	153.2	198.00	4.4	6.4	4.2	7.7	1.2	2.3	11.7	0.5	5.9
BPCL	BPCL IN	NR	855.1	NR	9.4	25.1	19.7	10.9	10.5	7.2	15.2	2.9	1.8
HPCL	HPCL IN	NR	776.5	NR	4.0	25.6	19.9	9.2	10.0	7.2	8.8	1.8	2.2
Petron Corp	PCOR PM	Buy	6.84	11.25	1.4	0.5	15.6	9.3	7.8	6.9	4.4	0.7	0.7
Phoenix Petro	PNX PM	Buy	3.33	4.75	0.1	0.0	5.7	5.0	7.6	6.9	11.6	0.6	3.0
S-Oil	010950 KS	NR	62,400	NR	6.0	18.5	8.6	8.5	6.3	6.6	15.8	0.5	3.2
SK Innovation	096770 KS	NR	102,500	NR	8.1	36.1	7.6	8.2	6.2	6.7	8.0	0.6	2.7
GS Holdings	078930 KS	NR	46,950	NR	3.7	9.3	8.6	8.0	8.5	8.2	7.9	0.7	2.7
PetroVietnam Gas	GAS VN	Buy	45,500	92,000	3.8	1.1	10.1	10.8	4.7	4.8	23.9	2.2	7.8
Asian E&P average	-	-	-	-	-	-	13.2	12.2	-	9.1	7.7	1.0	3.3