Adobe-2019年假日购物趋势（英文）41页_3mb

报告摘要

ADOBE HOLIDAY SHOPPING TRENDS | 2019 SUMMARY

Core Content Overview

This report from Adobe Digital Insights 2019 provides a detailed analysis of U.S. holiday shopping trends, focusing on online spend, device usage, consumer behavior, and advertising effectiveness. It includes predictions, data on sales growth, and insights into how retailers can optimize their strategies for the holiday season.

Key Findings

Online U.S. Spend Prediction

Total Online Holiday Spend: Projected to reach $143.7B, a 14.1% growth compared to 2018.
Cyber Monday Revenue: Expected to hit $9.4B, a 18.9% increase from 2018.
Cyber Weekend Revenue: Projected to account for 20% of total holiday season revenue, breaking $29B.
Golden Hours: Conversion rates nearly double during the 7pm to 11pm PST window on Cyber Monday.
Holiday Season Duration: 2019's holiday season is shorter by 6 days compared to 2018, but early sales help compensate.

Shopping Mall in Your Pocket

Smartphone Shopping Growth: Responsible for ~47% of the overall U.S. retail holiday growth.
Mobile Spend Increase: Americans will spend $14.0B more on smartphones than last year.
Device Share of Sales: On Christmas Day, 50% of consumers will shop on smartphones even when desktops are available.
Smartphone vs Desktop Cart Value: Desktop carts are 28% more expensive than smartphone carts, with exceptions in flowers and baby toys.
Mobile Efficiency: 63% increase in dollars spent per minute of smartphone browsing since 2016.

Shopping Behavior by Device

Social Media Traffic: Share of smartphone e-commerce visits from social media has tripled in the past 3 years, reaching 11%.
Social Media Influence: 57% of consumers get holiday purchase ideas from social media, and 20% make purchases based on influencer recommendations.
Checkout Experience: Smartphone checkout has significant room for improvement, with $12B in untapped potential if it matched desktop experience.

Tale of Two Holidays

High vs Low Income Markets: High-income markets (median HHI $100K) account for 7% of rural areas, while low-income markets (median HHI $33K) are 40% rural.
Traffic and Revenue: High-income markets generate more retail traffic relative to their population share.
Holiday Weekend Impact: The five-day holiday weekend increases RPV by 74% for both high and low-income markets.
AOV Shift: During the holiday weekend, high-income markets see a 1% increase in AOV, while low-income markets see 10%.
Discretionary Spending: High-income markets spend more on apparel & accessories, while low-income markets favor media & entertainment.

David vs. The Goliath

E-commerce Giants Outperform: Large retailers see a 65% revenue boost, while small retailers see 35%.
Conversion Rates: Big retailers have a 32% higher conversion rate during the holidays than in October, while small retailers only see 23%.
Email and Paid Search: E-commerce giants have a 19% higher share of email traffic and dominate paid search.
Organic Traffic: Smaller retailers rely more on organic search, but big retailers leverage holiday-specific messaging effectively.

Seasonal Insights

BOPIS Growth: 39% more BOPIS orders placed this year compared to 2018.
Last-Minute Gifts: 37% of consumers plan to use BOPIS, and 82% will buy additional items while picking up orders.
Shipping Costs: 50% of consumers are willing to wait up to 1 week for delivery, and 27% wait 2 days max.
Combined Purchases: 63% of consumers combine smaller purchases into one order during the holidays.
Holiday Email Engagement: Open rates increase 6%, click-through rates 4%, and 41% of consumers find email offers more effective during the holidays.

Advertising During the Holidays

CPM Increase: 23% increase in CPM during the holiday season.
Ad Influence: 50% of consumers say holiday ads influence their purchasing decisions.
Ad Relevance: 47% of consumers find holiday ads more relevant than other times of the year.
Viewable Completion Rates: Increase by 30% during the holiday season, showing higher ad effectiveness.

Holiday Road

Best Day to Book Flights for New Year: Predicted based on consumer behavior and price trends.

Adobe's Toy Watchlist

Top Toys: Owleez, Blume Dolls, Candy Locks, LoL Surprise OMG Swag, Fashion Doll, Kindi Kids.
Gaming Checklist: Nintendo Switch Lite, SEGA Genesis Mini, Pokémon Shield/Sword, Shenmue 3, Jedi Fallen Order, Death Stranding, COD: Modern Warfare.

Summary of Methodology

Data analyzed from Adobe Experience Cloud, including Adobe Analytics Cloud, Adobe Advertising Cloud, and Adobe Commerce Cloud.
Insights based on 1 trillion visits, 55 million products, and 1k+ U.S. consumers surveyed in October 2019.
Additional data from 29B emails sent, 11M+ orders, and 3.2B desktop video ad impressions in 2018.

Conclusion

The 2019 holiday season shows a strong shift towards mobile shopping, with smartphones accounting for ~47% of the overall growth. Cyber Monday is projected to be the first $9B day in e-commerce, and early sales are key to compensating for the shorter season. High-income markets drive more traffic and revenue, while smaller retailers benefit from organic search and unique offerings. Advertising is more effective during the holidays, with higher engagement and relevance, and BOPIS is becoming a crucial tool for conversion.