Adobe-2017年假日购物季预测报告（英文）-2017.11-24页-3mb

2017 U.S. Online Holiday Shopping Report Summary

Core Content

The 2017 U.S. online holiday shopping season is projected to surpass $100 billion in revenue, with a 13.8% increase compared to the previous year. This growth outpaces the overall U.S. holiday retail growth rate of 3.8%, indicating a strong shift towards digital shopping. The report is based on comprehensive data analysis from Adobe Experience Cloud and Adobe Analytics, which tracks over 1 trillion visits to more than 4,500 retail websites and 55 million SKUs.

Key Findings

• Online Holiday Shopping Growth: The U.S. online holiday season is expected to reach $107.4 billion in 2017, a 13.8% increase from 2016. This growth is attributed to both large and small retailers, with large retailers showing higher order values and desktop conversion rates, while small retailers excel in mobile conversion.
• Consumer Behavior: 55% of U.S. consumers plan to spend their holiday budget online, up from 53% in 2016. Consumers are buying more items at lower prices, especially in categories like toys and consumer electronics.
• Product Trends:
  • Consumer Electronics: Products like AirPods, PlayStation VR, and the Nintendo Switch are generating significant social buzz.
  • Toys: Nostalgic items such as Teddy Ruxpin and NERF Guns, along with new releases like Hatchimals and Paw Patrol, are popular.
  • Video Games & Consoles: Nostalgic titles like Super Mario Odyssey and the Super Nintendo Classic are driving interest.
• Mobile Impact: Mobile is becoming a critical growth driver, with 1.9% conversion rates for small retailers. Despite this, desktop orders still account for two-thirds of total revenue. High-growth companies see greater smartphone visit and revenue growth.
• Cyber Monday Trends: Cyber Monday remains the peak shopping day, with a 16.5% year-over-year revenue growth and the highest predicted revenue ($6.6B). The "Golden Hours" on Cyber Monday, especially the last hour, see a significant increase in conversion rates.
• Price Trends:
  • Price deflation is most pronounced on key shopping days, particularly for TVs and other electronics.
  • Shoppers can save up to 33% on toys and 22% on electronics by shopping around on key days.
• Email Dominance: Email marketing continues to outperform app downloads in driving revenue, with 37% of shoppers preferring email for holiday offers.
• Shopping Timeline: Half of all online holiday revenue is expected to be generated before November 29th, with last-minute shoppers accounting for 25% of revenue in the final 12 days before Christmas.

Retailer Insights

• Big Retailers: Larger retailers (>$100M annual revenue) have higher average order values and desktop conversion rates.
• Small Retailers: Small retailers (<$10M annual revenue) benefit from strong mobile conversion rates.
• Average Retailers: These retailers face challenges, with lower conversion rates compared to both large and small retailers.

Survey Highlights

• 56% of shoppers use social media for new gift ideas.
• 64% of shoppers have a retail app downloaded, but only 32% will download a specific holiday shopping app.
• Only 22% of shoppers are finished with their holiday shopping by the end of Black Friday, highlighting the importance of Cyber Monday.

Market Trends

• The holiday season is crossing a mobile traffic tipping point, with more mobile visits than desktops for the first time.
• The "retail Apocalypse" is not fully offset by online growth, as overall retail growth continues to lag.
• Key cities like San Francisco, Seattle, and Washington D.C. are showing strong mobile-driven revenue growth.

Conclusion

The 2017 U.S. online holiday shopping season is marked by significant growth, driven by both large and small retailers, and a shift in consumer preferences towards cheaper and more accessible products. Mobile is playing a pivotal role in this growth, while email marketing remains a dominant channel. The season is expected to see a peak in Cyber Monday, with notable price savings and increased consumer activity. The report underscores the importance of leveraging mobile and email marketing strategies to capitalize on the holiday shopping trend.