2021年假日购物季预测报告（英）-22页_2mb

报告摘要

Adobe Holiday Shopping Forecast Summary (2021)

Core Content Overview

Adobe's Holiday Shopping Forecast 2021 provides a detailed analysis of consumer behavior, retail strategies, and market trends during the holiday season. The report highlights the growing importance of e-commerce, the impact of inflation, and the role of BNPL (Buy Now, Pay Later) and curbside pickup in shaping the shopping experience.

Key Predictions and Insights

1. Record Online Holiday Spending

The online holiday season is expected to surpass $207 billion, marking the first time it will exceed $200 billion.
Global holiday spending is projected to reach $910 billion, with a 11% YOY growth.
The total online spend in the US for the holiday season is expected to exceed $4.1 trillion for the first time.

2. Early Season Discounting and Inflation Impact

Early discounting trends will persist, but strongest discounts are expected to occur during Thanksgiving week and Cyber Monday.
Inflationary pressures are reducing the value of seasonal discounts. Consumers are expected to save less compared to previous years.
Cyber Week (Cyber Monday to Black Friday) will see an average 9% price increase due to inflation and smaller discounts.

3. Out-of-Stock Issues Persist

Out-of-stock notifications are up 172% compared to the pre-pandemic period (Jan 2020) and 360% compared to Jan 2019.
Apparel, sporting goods, baby and toddler products, and electronics are the most affected categories.

4. Curbside Pickup Gains Momentum

Curbside pickup (BOPIS) is expected to peak at 40% of all online orders during the holiday season.
It is being used to avoid shipping costs and manage logistics challenges.
Grocery, apparel, and home improvement are the top categories driving BOPIS growth.

5. BNPL Adoption Surges

BNPL usage is increasing, with consumers using it for smaller orders.
The minimum order value for BNPL dropped by 12% from 2020 to 2021.
BNPL orders are 44% higher than in 2019 and 3% higher than in 2020.

6. Smartphone Shopping Plateau

Smartphone shopping is reaching a plateau, but it still drives over $86 billion in holiday sales.
Smartphone revenue share is expected to grow by +5% YoY.

7. Consumer Behavior Shifts

Consumers are spending more time online, with an average of 12 hours per person during the holiday season.
Cumulative shopping time across the US is expected to reach 3.6 billion hours.

8. Top Products and Categories

Toys, electronics, gift cards, and books are expected to be key drivers of holiday growth.
Other popular categories include alcohol, home and garden, and personal care products.
Weaker growth drivers include auto parts, housekeeping supplies, and arts, crafts, and sewing.

9. TV Trends in the Streaming Era

Consumers are favoring larger screen sizes for TVs, with 70+ inch displays becoming more common.
Samsung and LG TVs are highlighted as top holiday purchases.

10. Discount Timing and Trends

Seasonal discounts are expected to start as early as October, with best deals occurring during Thanksgiving week and Cyber Monday.
Black Friday and Cyber Monday are still the strongest discount days, but with weaker discount levels compared to previous years.

Summary of Major Trends

E-commerce growth is expected to be stronger than last year, driven by consumer demand and early discounting.
Inflation is affecting discount value, leading to lower savings for consumers.
BNPL and curbside pickup are becoming key shopping tools.
Smartphones remain a major shopping channel, despite a plateau in growth.
Out-of-stock issues are expected to worsen due to elevated demand and shipping challenges.
Consumer behavior is shifting toward early shopping and last-minute purchases, particularly for gifts, toys, and alcohol.

Conclusion

Adobe's forecast underscores a dynamic and evolving holiday shopping landscape, influenced by inflation, logistical challenges, and changing consumer preferences. Retailers and consumers alike are adapting to these trends, with BNPL, curbside pickup, and early discounting becoming increasingly important in the 2021 holiday season.

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