Adobe-2020年假日购物季预测报告（英文）-2020.11-38页_1mb

报告摘要

2020 Holiday Shopping Forecast Summary

Core Content

Adobe's Unboxing 2020's Holiday Shopping Forecast provides a comprehensive overview of the anticipated trends and behaviors in the U.S. e-commerce landscape during the holiday season. The report highlights the impact of the pandemic, consumer behavior shifts, and the role of digital tools in shaping the shopping experience.

Main Viewpoints

Record E-commerce Growth

Online holiday season spend is forecast to reach $189 billion, representing a 33% YoY increase.
Black Friday is expected to hit $10 billion, potentially surpassing Cyber Monday due to early discounts and the shift in consumer behavior.
Early November will see the start of significant holiday discounting, with the deepest price drops expected during Black Friday through Cyber Week.

Shift in Consumer Behavior

Smartphones are predicted to account for 42% of holiday shopping, with $28 billion more spent on mobile compared to previous years.
BOPIS (Buy Online, Pick Up In Store) usage is expected to rise sharply, with 50% of orders for retailers offering BOPIS.
Free shipping will be a key differentiator, with 70% of Black Friday weekend orders having free shipping, peaking at 73% on Sunday.

Impact of the Pandemic

Small retailers are expected to see a 107% revenue boost during the holiday season, compared to 84% for large retailers.
New customers are driving significant growth for small retailers, with 22% increase in new customer revenue, compared to 2% for large retailers.
Expedited shipping is in decline, with only 1% of orders using it this year, as retailers focus on early discounting and BOPIS.

Marketing Channel Insights

Search engines are expected to drive 46.5% of online shopping revenue, with an 12% YoY increase.
Email marketing is expected to see an 8% decrease in share, while social media remains a low driver of direct purchases, with only 3% of total sales.

Consumer Trends

Last-minute shopping is on the rise, with 51% of consumers more likely to return gifts purchased the day before Thanksgiving.
Gift shipping to others' addresses is expected to increase by 18%, peaking at 67% on December 17.
New customers are the defining segment of this holiday season, but they tend to make smaller orders.

Regional Differences

The Northeast is leading the shift to e-commerce, with Rhode Island seeing a 28% increase in e-commerce sales and Michigan, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maine also expected to see over 10% increases.
Despite already having the highest online shopping rate per capita, the Northeast continues to gain market share.

Additional Insights

Smartphones are becoming the dominant shopping device, even with the rise in work-from-home trends.
Flexible payment options are increasingly popular, with DC, CA, MD, NY, DE, GA, and NJ leading in the use of interest-free installments.
Election outcomes are expected to impact consumer confidence and spending, with a 13% drop in sales the day after the election.

Key Information

E-commerce growth is expected to be record-breaking, driven by COVID-19 and holiday demand.
BOPIS is gaining traction as a preferred method, with 40% YoY growth expected.
Free shipping is a major factor in consumer decision-making, with 75% of shoppers considering it important.
New customers are crucial for small retailers, contributing to higher revenue growth.
Smartphones will dominate the shopping experience, with 42% of holiday shopping expected to occur on mobile devices.
Regional trends show the Northeast leading in e-commerce adoption and growth.
Marketing channels like search engines are becoming more important, while email and social media see declines in effectiveness.
Election impact is expected to cause a temporary slowdown in spending, with a 13% drop in sales the day after the election.