Adobe-2018假日购物季报告（英文）-2018.12-40页-11mb

Retail Unwrapped 2018 Holiday Predictions Summary

Core Content

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the 2018 U.S. holiday retail season, focusing on online shopping trends, consumer behavior, and the impact of technology on retail performance.

Key Findings

• Online Holiday Retail Approaching $125 Billion:
  Online holiday shopping revenue in the U.S. is projected to be $124.1 billion in 2018, a 14.8% increase compared to 2017. Nearly 1 in 6 retail dollars will be spent online.

• Thanksgiving Weekend Growth Outpaces Season Averages:
  The Thanksgiving weekend (Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday) is expected to generate $23.4 billion, which is nearly 1 in 5 of online holiday shopping revenue. Cyber Monday is projected to be the highest revenue day with $7.8 billion in revenue and 17.6% year-over-year growth.

• Mobile Dominance:
  Smartphones will account for half of all online retail traffic and a quarter of holiday sales. Mobile app users are 2X more likely to convert than website users. The last purchasing step (cart to order) happens 20% less often on smartphones.

• Buy-Online-Pick-Up-In-Store (BOPIS) Growth:
  BOPIS orders have more than doubled since January, with top retailers seeing 3.5X growth. BOPIS baskets tend to have fewer items (1.9 vs. 2.7 units) but higher average unit value.

• Voice Assistants Influence Shopping Behavior:
  33% of speakers sold last holiday season had smart assistance features. Voice assistants are used for product research, list creation, and price comparison, with 45% of smart speaker owners planning to buy another one.

• Experiences Over Things:
  One third of consumers plan to spend more on experiences than physical gifts. This trend is supported by increased revenue on travel sites during key holiday dates.

• 4K TVs Will Dominate:
  83% of TVs sold during the 2017 holiday season were 4K, with a 45% YoY increase. Shoppers can save up to 25% on 4K TVs during the Thanksgiving weekend.

• Toys and Gifts:
  The top toys include "Pomsies," "Grumbles," "Scruff-a-luvs," and retro consoles like the Sony PlayStation Classic. "Surprise" toys saw a 2X increase in sales compared to 2016.

• Consumer Behavior Shifts:
  47% of shoppers have visited a store to browse products they intend to buy online. 10% of gifts were returned last holiday season, with a 18% increase in return rates compared to the rest of the year.

• Social Media and Retail:
  Social media traffic has doubled over the past two years, but the value of each visit has decreased by 11%. Consumers are less likely to consult social media for gift ideas (25% fewer than two years ago).

• Elections Have Minimal Impact:
  The day after the election sees a 6% drop in total visits, but this is recovered by Friday with an 8% increase. RPV on smartphones dips 15–20% on election day but recovers by the weekend.

• Customer Acquisition and Retention:
  Customers acquired during the holiday season have the same long-term value as those acquired throughout the year. Large retailers benefit from larger basket sizes, with 30% more sales per transaction.

• Screen Size Trends:
  Tablets are losing market share as smartphones grow larger and laptops shrink. Tablet visits have decreased by 30% over the past four years.

Main Viewpoints

• Online growth is accelerating, with the holiday season outperforming overall retail growth.
• Mobile is becoming the dominant shopping channel, especially on Cyber Monday.
• BOPIS and fast shipping are becoming increasingly important to consumers.
• Voice assistants are playing a growing role in the shopping process, even if they don't place orders directly.
• Experiences are gaining traction as gift options, especially in travel and entertainment.
• Social media is driving more traffic but less value.
• Elections have a minimal and temporary impact on online retail performance.
• 4K TVs are the top holiday product, with significant price drops during the Thanksgiving weekend.
• Toys remain a major category, with a notable rise in "surprise" toys.
• Consumer trust is eroding, especially in social shopping.

Key Information

• Methodology: Based on data from Adobe Experience Cloud, Analytics Cloud, and Advertising Cloud, analyzing over 1 trillion visits and 55 million unique products.
• Smartphone share of traffic: 48% of online retail visits.
• Mobile conversion rate: 7.3% peak during the holiday season.
• BOPIS growth: 119% since January, with top retailers seeing 3.5X growth.
• Smart speaker ownership: 32% of consumers already own one, with 16% planning to get one for the holiday season.
• 4K TV sales: 83% of TVs sold were 4K, with 45% YoY growth.
• Online shopping time: Equivalent to 10,000 years of shopping on Cyber Monday.
• Calories from eggnog: Over 105 million calories consumed during the holiday season.
• Holiday gift spending: 1 in 7 is spent on gifts for the buyer, not just for others.

Conclusion

The 2018 holiday retail season is expected to be a pivotal moment for online and mobile commerce, with significant growth in BOPIS, voice-assisted shopping, and the shift toward experiential gifts. Retailers must adapt to these trends, focusing on mobile optimization, customer retention, and leveraging the increased importance of digital tools in the shopping journey.