2017年假日购物季预测报告_24页-3mb

2017 U.S. Online Holiday Shopping Report Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the 2017 U.S. online holiday shopping season, based on data from Adobe Experience Cloud and Adobe Analytics. It covers key trends in consumer behavior, retailer performance, and product demand across various categories.

Key Findings

• Online holiday season revenue projected to exceed $107.4 billion, marking a 13.8% increase compared to 2016, which is significantly higher than the 3.8% growth for all U.S. holiday retail.
• Mobile is a major growth driver, with small retailers showing the highest mobile conversion rates (1.9%), while large retailers maintain higher order values and desktop conversion rates.
• Consumers are shifting towards cheaper products, with 4 out of 5 product categories showing higher unit growth than revenue growth, particularly in toys and apparel.
• Cyber Monday is the peak shopping day, generating $6.6 billion in revenue and experiencing the fastest growth (16.5% YoY). The last hour of Cyber Monday sees conversion rates 4x the annual average.
• Nostalgia and novelty are key trends, with products like Teddy Ruxpin and the Super Nintendo Classic gaining significant social buzz, alongside new releases such as the Nintendo Switch.
• Online shopping is becoming more mobile-centric, with consumers visiting retailer websites more often from mobile devices than desktops for the first time during the holiday season.
• Email marketing remains dominant, with 37% of shoppers stating it is their favorite way to receive offers on mobile devices, despite a decline in app installs.

Retailer Performance

• Large retailers (annual revenue > $100M) see faster revenue growth and higher average order values.
• Small retailers (<$10M annual revenue) have the highest mobile conversion rates, indicating their strength in mobile commerce.
• Average retailers struggle to compete, with conversion rates significantly lower than both large and small retailers.

Consumer Behavior

• 55% of consumers plan to spend their holiday budget online, up from 53% in 2016.
• Shoppers are more likely to complete purchases during the early hours of Cyber Monday, finding better stock availability and deals.
• Social media influences shopping decisions, with 56% of shoppers using it for gift ideas.

Product Trends

• Consumer electronics dominate social buzz, with products like Air Pods, PlayStation VR, and Google Home leading the way.
• Toys see significant unit growth, with new versions of popular toys like Shopkins and Hatchimals, and nostalgia-driven products like NERF Guns and Teddy Ruxpin.
• Video games and consoles are popular, with titles like Super Mario Odyssey and Pokémon Ultra Sun & Moon generating buzz, and the Nintendo Switch driving interest.
• TVs offer substantial discounts, with 70-inch TVs seeing over $1,100 in savings during the holiday season.

Data Sources

• The report is based on 1 trillion visits to over 4,500 retail websites and 55 million SKUs.
• 6 million average daily orders during November and December.
• 1,100+ U.S. consumers and 440+ U.S. online retailers were surveyed.
• 12 million social mentions from August 1 – October 11, 2017.

Key Dates and Growth

• Thanksgiving weekend generates $19.7 billion in online revenue, accounting for 18% of the holiday season.
• Cyber Monday is the most significant day for online revenue, with the highest predicted revenue and growth.
• Black Friday sees only 22% of shoppers complete their holiday shopping, highlighting the importance of Cyber Monday.

Mobile and Device Usage

• Mobile traffic surpasses desktop for the first time during the holiday season.
• Smartphone usage is closely correlated with revenue growth, with high-growth companies seeing 23% and 32% increases in visits and revenue, respectively.
• DMAs with high smartphone growth (e.g., San Francisco, Seattle, and Washington D.C.) experience the most overall revenue growth.

Additional Insights

• Price deflation is significant, especially on key days like Thanksgiving, with TVs seeing a 24% price drop.
• Shopping around pays off, with the greatest price differences observed on key days like Cyber Monday.
• The holiday season is concentrated, with half of all online U.S. holiday revenue expected before November 29th, and 25% of revenue from last-minute shoppers in the final 12 days before Christmas.

Conclusion

The 2017 U.S. online holiday shopping season is expected to break the $100 billion mark, driven by mobile commerce, price competition, and a mix of nostalgia and new products. While large retailers maintain dominance in revenue and order value, small retailers excel in mobile conversion. Cyber Monday remains the most critical day for online sales, and email marketing continues to be a key channel for reaching consumers.