德勤-2019年假日购物零售报告-2019.11-28页_11mb

Deloitte 2019 Holiday Retail Survey Summary

Core Content

The Deloitte 2019 Holiday Retail Survey provides insights into consumer behavior and trends during the holiday season. The survey, conducted between September 6-13, 2019, included a national sample of 4,410 consumers and aimed to help retailers understand how to better serve their customers and achieve superior business results.

Main Insights

1. Short-term Consumer Sentiment is Positive, but Headwinds are Forming

• Average holiday spending per household: $1,496, slightly down from $1,536 in 2018.
• Positive growth trajectory: Since 2012, consumer holiday spend has grown at a 5.4% CAGR, outpacing overall retail sales growth.
• Economic outlook: Only 40% of consumers expect the economy to improve in 2020, a 13% drop from 2018.
• Spending intentions: 20% of consumers plan to spend less this year, mainly due to the need to save more.

2. Shoppers Want Great Products, Good Deals, and More Convenience

• Price as a key factor: 75% of consumers consider price important in their purchasing decisions.
• Product quality and variety: High importance for consumers, with 85% valuing great products and brands.
• Convenience as a differentiator: As competition increases, convenience is becoming a key factor in consumer choice.

3. Consumers Want Their Holiday Gifts Delivered for Free

• Preference for free shipping: 85% of consumers prefer free shipping over fast shipping.
• Willingness to wait: Over 80% of free shipping preference holders are willing to wait three days or more.
• Buy-online-pick-up-in-store (BOPIS): Almost half of consumers plan to use this option.

4. The Experience of Celebrating the Season with Others is the Leading Type of Holiday Spend

• Experience spending: 40% of total holiday spend, up from 38% over the last five years.
• Top experiences: Travel, dining out, and socializing away from home.
• Average spend on socializing: $391 per consumer.
• Top gifts: Clothing, gift cards, and toys remain popular, though the average number of gifts given has decreased.

5. Online Shopping is Looking Even Stronger This Holiday Season

• E-commerce growth: Projected to grow 14-18% over 2018, higher than the previous year's 11.2%.
• Smartphone use: Expected to rise 6%, while other device use remains flat.
• Online research: 58% of consumers plan to use online search engines as their main source for holiday research.
• Online vs. in-store spending: Online average spend is $879, in-store is $541.

6. There's More to Holiday High Spenders Than Income Alone

• High spenders: 20% of shoppers, spending over $2,100, account for 60% of total holiday spend.
• Demographics: 65% are from higher-income households, 25% from middle-income, and 10% from lower-income.
• Age group: 65% of high spenders are over 40.
• Gift preferences: Clothing, gift cards, and books are top gifts, with travel and socializing making up 31% of their budget.

7. Smartphones Are Becoming the Go-to Platform for Holiday Shopping

• Smartphone usage: Increased by 6% compared to desktop and tablet use.
• Consumer behavior: Nearly two-thirds of consumers plan to use smartphones for holiday shopping.
• Technology influence: Smartphones provide quick access to products, reviews, and seamless checkouts.
• Future trends: 5G may further enhance the mobile shopping experience.

8. Online Retailers and Mass Merchants Are the Most Preferred Formats for Holiday Shopping

• Online retailers: 66% of consumers plan to shop at online retailers.
• Mass merchants: Over 50% plan to visit mass merchants.
• Supermarket/grocery stores: 10% increase in popularity due to rising gift trends in food and liquor.
• Toy stores: Declined in popularity, but toys remain a top gift category.

9. Holiday Shopping is Expected to Peak in Early December This Year

• Peak timing: Shifted from Thanksgiving to early December due to late Thanksgiving and the timing of Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
• Cyber Monday importance: Has surpassed Black Friday in significance, especially for Gen Z and millennials.
• Early shoppers: Spend 25% more than those who start shopping later.

10. Online Retailers Are the No. 1 Source of Inspiration for Most Shoppers

• Inspiration source: 66% of consumers plan to browse online retailers for inspiration.
• Research methods: Social and print media are not major drivers, while in-store experiences remain valuable.
• Consumer access: More information on products, price, and promotions is available at consumers' fingertips.

Key Information

• Total holiday spending per household: $1,496.
• High spenders: 20% of shoppers, spending over $2,100, account for 60% of total holiday spend.
• Smartphone use: 62% of high spenders use smartphones for shopping, compared to 45% of low spenders.
• Free shipping preference: 85% of consumers prefer free shipping over fast shipping.
• E-commerce growth: Projected to grow 14-18% this year.
• Cyber Monday: Over 70% of consumers plan to shop in early December, with Cyber Monday being the most important shopping day for younger generations.

Conclusion

The 2019 holiday season presents both opportunities and challenges for retailers. With a focus on online shopping, free shipping, and experiential spending, retailers must adapt their strategies to meet consumer expectations. High spenders, who are increasingly tech-savvy and value convenience, should be a priority for retailers. The survey highlights the importance of integrating digital and physical shopping experiences and leveraging data to enhance customer satisfaction and loyalty.