2023Q3中国财政运行报告-NIFD_30页_3mb

China NIFD Quarterly Fiscal Report Summary

Key Points

September 2023 Quarterly Review:

• Revenue: General public budget revenue growth slowed due to lower fiscal policy base effects and high tax rates; Non-tax revenue saw a 11.6% decline. By October, revenue growth improved slightly.
• Government Funded Revenue: Continued to decline with a larger-than-expected drop in land sale proceeds.
• Expenditure: Accelerated overall, supported by increased spending in social security and debt interest payments.

Fiscal Balance and Debt:

• Reduced discrepancies between general and government fund budgets due to increased bond issuance.
• Partial relief from local government debt risks from enhanced fiscal policy and monetary support.

Economic Indicators:

• Persistent low CPI/PPI, weak manufacturing activity, and sluggish exports signal an upcoming challenging revenue growth period.
• Real estate market decline sharply reduced land sales, affecting public fund revenues.

Policy Recommendations for 2024:

• Enhance fiscal policy with optimized expenditure focuses, expanded bonds, and support for key areas like R&D and green growth.
• Maintain tight fiscal discipline while boosting specific income and expenditure tools.

Apex: Fiscal deficit target set at 3.5% for 2024.