20211129-USDA-USDA_World_Agricultural_Supply_and_Demand_Estimates_2021.11.90_40页_915kb

WASDE Summary - 618 (November 9, 2021)

Core Content Overview

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for November 9, 2021, provides a detailed outlook for the U.S. and global agricultural markets, focusing on wheat, coarse grains, rice, oilseeds, and cotton. The report is approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board and outlines production, supply, use, trade, and ending stocks for the 2021/22 marketing year.

U.S. Wheat Outlook

• Supplies: Reduced by 10 million bushels to 115 million due to weak import pace.
• Domestic Use: Increased by 2 million bushels to 1,163 million, driven by higher seed use for the 2022/23 crop, which offset lower food use.
• Exports: Reduced by 15 million bushels to 860 million due to high domestic prices and muted export sales.
• Ending Stocks: Slightly increased to 583 million bushels, still the lowest since 2007/08.
• Farm Price: Raised by $0.20 to $6.90 per bushel, reflecting NASS prices and market expectations.

Global Wheat Outlook

• Supplies: Projected down by 1.0 million tons to 1,063.2 million, due to decreases in EU, UK, and Uzbekistan production.
• Consumption: Slightly increased to 787.2 million tons, driven by feed and residual use.
• Trade: Increased to a record 203.2 million tons, with higher exports from EU, India, Russia, and Ukraine.
• Ending Stocks: Reduced by 1.4 million tons to 275.8 million, with Australia, EU, and India contributing to the decline.

U.S. Coarse Grains Outlook

• Corn Production: Forecast at 15.062 billion bushels, a record high due to a 0.5-bushel increase in yield.
• Corn Used for Ethanol: Increased by 50 million bushels based on September and October data.
• Ending Stocks: Reduced by 7 million bushels due to higher use than supply.
• Farm Price: Unchanged at $5.45 per bushel.

Global Coarse Grains Outlook

• Production: Increased by 5.1 million tons to 1,499.0 million, with gains in Argentina, EU, and African countries offsetting declines in the Philippines.
• Trade: Increased by 3.5 million tons to 203.2 million, with higher exports from Argentina and EU.
• Ending Stocks: Increased by 2.7 million tons to 304.4 million, with China, Brazil, Burkina Faso, and Angola contributing to the rise.

U.S. Rice Outlook

• Supplies: Increased by 3.3 million cwt to 193.8 million due to higher yields.
• Domestic Use: Increased by 1.5 million cwt to 147.5 million.
• Exports: Reduced by 1.0 million cwt to 90.0 million due to weak sales and shipments.
• Ending Stocks: Increased by 1.8 million cwt to 35.0 million, still down 20% from last year.
• Farm Price: Unchanged at $14.80 per cwt.

Global Rice Outlook

• Supplies: Increased by 3.3 million tons to 699.2 million, driven by higher beginning stocks in India and increased production in Sub-Saharan Africa.
• Consumption: Reduced by 1.0 million tons to 511.3 million, but remains a record due to offsetting increases in Sub-Saharan Africa.
• Trade: Slightly reduced to 49.7 million tons, with higher Indian exports offset by reductions from China, Burma, and EU.
• Ending Stocks: Increased by 4.3 million tons to a record 187.9 million, with China and India accounting for 60% and 20% of global stocks, respectively.

U.S. Oilseeds Outlook

• Soybean Production: Reduced by 23 million bushels to 4.42 billion due to lower yields in key states.
• Exports: Reduced due to lower global demand and slower shipments.
• Ending Stocks: Increased by 20 million bushels.
• Farm Price: Unchanged at $12.10 per bushel for 2020/21, but decreased by 25 cents.
• Soybean Meal and Oil Prices: Unchanged at $325.00 per short ton and 65.0 cents per pound, respectively.

Global Oilseeds Outlook

• Production: Reduced by 1.1 million tons to 384.0 million, with lower U.S. and Argentina production offset by higher Indian output.
• Exports: Reduced by 1.0 million tons to 172.1 million, with Argentina and U.S. exports down, but Brazil and India up.
• Ending Stocks: Reduced by 0.8 million tons to 103.8 million, with Argentina and China stocks down, but U.S. stocks up.

U.S. Cotton Outlook

• Production: Slightly increased to 18.2 million bales.
• Domestic Mill Use: Unchanged.
• Exports: Unchanged.
• Ending Stocks: Increased to 3.4 million bales, 19% of use, up 250,000 from the previous year.
• Farm Price: Unchanged at 90 cents per pound, a 36% increase from the previous year.

Global Cotton Outlook

• Production: Increased by 1.5 million bales to 211.07 million, with gains in Brazil, Australia, Pakistan, and U.S. offset by a decline in Greece.
• Consumption: Increased by 700,000 bales to 1,168.89 million.
• Trade: Reduced to 46.61 million bales, with declines in China, Burma, and EU.
• Ending Stocks: Reduced to 86.93 million bales, with declines in Argentina and China offset by increases in U.S. stocks.

U.S. Sugar Outlook

• Beet Sugar Production: Increased by 65,544 STRV to 5.413 million, with higher slicing production and lower August-September adjustments.
• Cane Sugar Production: Reduced by 20,021 STRV due to lower crop yield and sucrose recovery.
• Imports: Reduced by 56,719 STRV to 3.195 million, with some imports entering due to TRQ reallocations.
• Ending Stocks: Reduced to 1,765,294 STRV, with a 14.3% stocks-to-use ratio.
• Farm Price: Unchanged at $14.80 per cwt for 2021/22, up from $14.00 for 2020/21.

Global Sugar Outlook

• Production: Increased by 3.3 million tons to 699.2 million.
• Consumption: Reduced by 1.0 million tons to 511.3 million, but remains a record.
• Trade: Slightly reduced to 49.7 million tons.
• Ending Stocks: Increased by 4.3 million tons to a record 187.9 million.

U.S. Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy Outlook

• Red Meat and Poultry Production: Forecast increased for both 2021 and 2022.
  • Beef: Increased due to higher slaughter and heavier carcass weights.
  • Pork: Slightly increased due to heavier carcass weights.
  • Broiler: Increased based on recent data.
  • Turkey: Increased based on September production data.
  • Egg Production: Increased due to higher table egg expectations.
• Imports: Increased for beef in both years due to strong domestic demand.
• Exports: Increased for beef and turkey, but reduced for pork and broiler in 2021.
• Prices:
  • Beef: Increased for both 2021 and 2022.
  • Hog: Reduced in 2021 due to price weakness.
  • Broiler and Turkey: Increased based on current prices and expected demand.
  • Milk: Reduced in both years due to lower dairy cow numbers and slower growth.
  • Cheese, Butter, NDM, and Whey: Increased in 2022 due to strong demand and lower milk supplies.
  • All Milk Price: Raised to $20.25 per cwt for 2022.

Key Information

• Wheat: U.S. supplies are down, domestic use is up, exports are down, and ending stocks are at a record low.
• Coarse Grains: U.S. corn production is at a record high, while global production and trade are up.
• Rice: U.S. supplies and domestic use are up, but exports are down; global supplies and stocks are up.
• Oilseeds: U.S. soybean production and ending stocks are down, but global production is up.
• Cotton: U.S. production is slightly up, global production and consumption are up, but ending stocks are slightly down.
• Sugar: U.S. beet and cane sugar production are mixed, with global production and stocks up.
• Livestock and Dairy: Strong demand for beef and poultry is expected, with higher prices in 2022; milk production and imports are down due to lower cow numbers.

Main Points

• The U.S. and global agricultural markets show mixed trends in production, trade, and prices.
• Wheat and soybean supplies and exports are expected to decline, but domestic use and prices are up.
• Corn and rice supplies are increasing, with corn showing record production and higher ethanol use.
• Cotton production and consumption are up globally, with U.S. ending stocks rising.
• Sugar production is up in the U.S. and globally, but trade and consumption show some declines.
• Livestock and dairy sectors show strong demand and higher prices in 2022, but some areas face challenges like lower production and price weakness.