20220209-USDA-USDA_World_Agricultural_Supply_and_Demand_Estimates_2022.2.9_40页_950kb

WASDE Report Summary - February 9, 2022

Core Content Overview

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for February 9, 2022, provides an analysis of supply and demand for various agricultural commodities, including wheat, rice, coarse grains, oilseeds, and cotton, both in the United States and globally. The report highlights changes in production, supply, use, trade, and ending stocks for each commodity, as well as price forecasts.

Main Points and Key Information

U.S. Wheat Outlook

• Supply and Use:

  • The U.S. wheat supply is stable, with ending stocks raised to 648 million bushels, still 23% lower than the previous year.
  • Domestic use is slightly reduced, primarily due to a 3 million bushel decrease in food use, with durum accounting for the entire reduction.
  • Seed use is revised down 2 million bushels to 64 million, based on updated NASS data.
  • Exports are reduced by 15 million bushels to 810 million, mainly due to slower export sales and shipments, particularly for Hard Red Winter and White wheat.
  • The projected season-average farm price (SAFP) is increased to $7.30 per bushel, the highest since 2012/13, due to reported NASS prices and expectations for cash and futures prices.

• Global Wheat Outlook:

  • Global supplies are reduced by 1.1 million tons to 1,066.3 million, with the majority of the decrease coming from the Middle East (Iraq and Syria) due to prolonged dry conditions.
  • World consumption is increased by 0.6 million tons to 788.1 million, driven by higher feed and residual use, especially in Canada and China.
  • Global trade is raised to 206.7 million tons, with India and Argentina leading the increase.
  • World ending stocks are lowered by 1.7 million tons to 278.2 million, now at a 5-year low.

Coarse Grains Outlook

• U.S. Corn:

  • The U.S. corn supply and use remain unchanged for 2021/22.
  • The season-average farm price is maintained at $5.45 per bushel.

• Global Coarse Grains:

  • Global production is reduced by 2.7 million tons to 1,497.4 million.
  • Brazil and Paraguay are the main producers with declines in production due to extreme weather conditions.
  • Global trade is reduced due to lower exports from Paraguay, while Argentina and Brazil see increased exports for 2020/21.
  • Global ending stocks are reduced by 0.9 million tons to 302.2 million.

U.S. Rice Outlook

• Supply and Use:
  • Total imports are reduced by 0.5 million cwt to 30.5 million.
  • Medium- and short-grain rice imports are down due to timing of Puerto Rico imports.
  • Exports are reduced by 1.0 million cwt to 23.0 million due to higher U.S. prices.
  • Ending stocks are increased by 0.5 million cwt to 33.5 million, still 23% lower than the previous year.
  • The season-average farm price for all rice is $15.70 per cwt, up 60 cents.

Global Rice Outlook

• Supply:
  • Global rice supplies are increased by 0.4 million tons to 696.7 million, due to higher production in Pakistan and Bangladesh.
• Trade:
  • Global trade is increased by 1.0 million tons to 50.9 million, mainly due to higher exports by India.
• Ending Stocks:
  • World ending stocks are slightly up to 186.3 million, just below last year's record, with China holding 61% of global stocks.

Oilseeds Outlook

• U.S. Soybeans:

  • Soybean crush is increased to 2.215 billion bushels, up 25 million from last month, due to favorable margins and export prospects.
  • Ending stocks are reduced by 25 million bushels to 325 million.
  • The season-average farm price for soybeans is $13.00 per bushel, up 40 cents, and soybean meal is $410.00 per short ton, up $35. Soybean oil is 66.0 cents per pound, up 1 cent.

• Global Oilseeds:

  • Global production is reduced by 8.7 million tons to 363.9 million due to drought in South America.
  • Exports and crush are reduced in Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina.
  • Global ending stocks are reduced by 2.4 million tons to 92.8 million.
  • India's rapeseed production is increased by 1.3 million tons to 10.8 million, due to faster planting and higher yields.

Sugar Outlook

• U.S. Sugar:
  • Supply is increased by 45,434 short tons.
  • Imports are reduced by 3,736 short tons.
  • Ending stocks are increased to 1,818,472 STRV, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 14.74%.
• Mexico Sugar:
  • Imports for consumption are reduced by 9,000 metric tons due to lower domestic prices.
  • Deliveries to the IMMEX program are increased by 11,057 metric tons.
  • Ending stocks are slightly increased, while residual exports are reduced.

Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy Outlook

• Production:
  • Red meat, poultry, and egg production are adjusted based on December data.
  • Beef production is increased due to higher placements in the first half of 2022.
  • Pork, broiler, and turkey production are reduced due to slower slaughter rates and higher feed costs.
• Trade:
  • Beef imports are increased due to strong demand.
  • Pork exports are reduced due to weaker demand from China.
  • Broiler and turkey exports are reduced due to weaker demand in Asian markets.
• Prices:
  • Fed-cattle prices are increased due to firm packer demand.
  • Hog, broiler, turkey, and egg prices are raised due to current prices and expected slower production growth.
  • Milk prices are raised to $23.55 per cwt for 2022, due to higher product prices and tightening stocks.

Cotton Outlook

• U.S. Cotton:
  • Exports are reduced by 250,000 bales to 14.75 million due to logistical issues.
  • Ending stocks are unchanged at 90 cents per pound.
• Global Cotton:
  • Ending stocks are reduced by 700,000 bales to 208.81 million, mainly due to a drop in production.
  • India's crop is reduced by 500,000 bales due to slow market arrivals.
  • Tanzania's crop is reduced by 345,000 bales based on updated government data.
  • World beginning stocks are increased by 240,000 bales due to historical revisions in Iran and Syria.
  • World trade is reduced by 120,000 bales, with China's imports down 250,000 bales, partially offset by India's imports.

Summary of Key Changes

• Wheat: Lower domestic use and exports, higher ending stocks, and higher SAFP.
• Rice: Lower imports and exports, higher ending stocks, and increased farm price.
• Coarse Grains: Lower global production and consumption, reduced ending stocks, and increased trade.
• Oilseeds: Increased U.S. soybean crush and reduced ending stocks, higher global prices due to drought.
• Sugar: Increased U.S. supply and ending stocks, reduced imports and exports in Mexico.
• Livestock and Dairy: Adjustments in production and trade, higher prices due to demand and costs.
• Cotton: Reduced exports, lower global ending stocks, and increased beginning stocks.

Additional Information

• The report was approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board.
• The WASDE report will be released on specific dates in 2022.
• The Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees (ICECs) are responsible for preparing the report, with specific analysts leading each commodity section.