20201009-USDA-USDA_World_Agricultural_Supply_and_Demand_Estimates_2020.10.9_40页_827kb

WASDE-605 Summary: 2020/21 Agricultural Outlook

Core Overview

This report provides the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) for the 2020/21 marketing year, highlighting changes in supply, use, trade, and ending stocks across key commodities. The report is approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board and prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees.

Wheat Outlook

U.S. Wheat

• Supply: Reduced by 32 million bushels due to lower beginning stocks and production.
• Domestic Use: Increased by 10 million bushels, driven by higher feed and residual use.
• Exports: Unchanged at 975 million bushels, with offsetting by-class changes.
• Ending Stocks: Reduced by 42 million bushels to 883 million, the lowest in six years.
• Farm Price: Raised by $0.20 per bushel to $4.70, reflecting tighter supplies and higher demand.

Global Wheat

• Supply: Increased by 2.2 million tons to 1,072.5 million, led by record-high Russian production.
• Consumption: Increased slightly to 751.0 million tons, with higher usage in Russia, Pakistan, and the EU.
• Trade: Raised by 0.5 million tons to 189.9 million, with Russia's exports reaching second-highest levels.
• Ending Stocks: Raised to 321.5 million tons, a new record, with Russia accounting for most of the increase.

Coarse Grains Outlook

U.S. Coarse Grains

• Production: Forecast at 14.722 billion bushels, down 178 million due to lower harvested area and yield.
• Domestic Use: Reduced, with lower ethanol and feed use.
• Ending Stocks: Reduced by 336 million bushels.
• Farm Price: Raised by 10 cents to $3.60 per bushel.

Grain Sorghum

• Production: Increased slightly due to higher yields (0.2 bushels per acre) and harvested area.

Global Coarse Grains

• Production: Forecast lower at 1,458.8 million tons, with reduced output in Ukraine, EU, and other regions.
• Trade: Raised slightly to 224.09 million tons, with higher exports from Russia and Brazil.
• Ending Stocks: Reduced by 4.9 million tons to 88.7 million, reflecting increased use and trade.

Rice Outlook

U.S. Rice

• Supply: Increased by 1.3 million cwt to 226.3 million due to higher production and imports.
• Domestic Use: Unchanged.
• Exports: Unchanged.
• Ending Stocks: Increased by 1.8 million cwt to 47.7 million, a 66% rise from last year.
• Farm Price: Raised by $0.20 per cwt to $12.80.

Global Rice

• Supply: Reduced by 2.7 million tons to 678.6 million, mainly due to lower beginning stocks in India.
• Consumption: Increased to 499.4 million tons, with higher use in India and Thailand.
• Trade: Reduced by 0.2 million tons to 44.3 million, as increased Indian exports offset lower Thai and Pakistani imports.
• Ending Stocks: Reduced to 179.2 million tons, still a record, with China and India accounting for most of the global stocks.

Oilseeds Outlook

U.S. Oilseeds

• Production: Forecast at 126.6 million tons, down 1.1 million from last month.
• Exports: Raised by 75 million bushels due to early-season sales.
• Ending Stocks: Reduced by 170 million bushels to 290 million.
• Farm Price: Raised to $9.80 per bushel, up 55 cents.
• Soybean Meal: Raised to $335.00 per short ton, up $20.00.
• Soybean Oil: Raised by 0.5 cents to 32.5 cents per pound.

Global Oilseeds

• Production: Reduced by 2.6 million tons to 478.9 million, mainly due to lower sunflowerseed output in Ukraine, EU, Moldova, and Argentina.
• Trade: Reduced due to lower sunflowerseed exports, but partially offset by higher palm oil and rapeseed meal exports from Malaysia and Russia.
• Ending Stocks: Reduced by 4.9 million tons to 88.7 million, reflecting increased use and trade.

Sugar Outlook

• U.S. Beet Sugar Production: Increased by 50,000 short tons to 4.293 million for 2019/20.
• 2020/21 Production: Increased by 41,095 STRV to 5.206 million, based on higher yields.
• Imports: Increased by 0.5 million cwt to 37.3 million, with all the increase for long grain.
• Ending Stocks: Increased to 1.749 million STRV for 2020/21, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 14.2%.
• Global Sugar Supply: Reduced by 2.7 million bales to 101.1 million, reflecting lower global production and higher use.

Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy Outlook

Red Meat and Poultry

• 2020 Production: Raised due to higher cattle slaughter.
• 2021 Production: Raised further, with increased beef, pork, and broiler output.
• Prices: Raised for beef, pork, and broiler, with turkey and egg prices also increasing.

Dairy

• Milk Production: Raised in 2020 due to more cows and higher milk per cow.
• Prices: Raised for cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk (NDM), with Class III and IV prices also up.
• Ending Stocks: Increased to 1.749 million STRV for 2020/21, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 14.2%.

Cotton Outlook

U.S. Cotton

• Production: Reduced by less than 1% to 17.0 million bales.
• Domestic Use: Unchanged.
• Exports: Unchanged.
• Ending Stocks: Projected at 7.2 million bales, representing 42% of use.
• Farm Price: Raised to 61.0 cents per pound, up 2 cents from last month.

Global Cotton

• Production: Reduced by over 900,000 bales to 116.27 million, with lower output in Ukraine, EU, and Argentina.
• Consumption: Increased by 1.5 million bales to 120.18 million.
• Trade: Raised by 500,000 bales to 41.72 million, with higher exports from Brazil and Uzbekistan.
• Ending Stocks: Reduced to 101.13 million bales, 89% of consumption.

Key Trends and Factors

• Wheat: Tight supplies, higher domestic use, and lower stocks due to reduced production and imports.
• Coarse Grains: Lower global production, increased use, and trade, with lower ending stocks.
• Rice: Increased U.S. supply and stocks, but lower global supply and stocks due to reduced beginning stocks in India.
• Oilseeds: Lower global production, increased U.S. exports, and reduced ending stocks.
• Sugar: Increased U.S. production and imports, but lower global production and stocks.
• Cotton: Reduced global production and ending stocks, but higher consumption and trade.
• Livestock and Dairy: Higher production and prices, with increased use and trade in key markets.

WASDE Approval and Committees

• The report is approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook Board.
• The Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees (ICECs) prepare the report, with key analysts from various USDA agencies.

Next WASDE Dates

• 2020: November 10
• 2021: January 12, February 9, March 9, April 9, May 12, June 10, July 12, August 12, September 10, October 12, November 9, December 9