国际航协2020世界航空运输统计报告（英）-31页_1mb

WATS+ Summary: World Air Transport Statistics 2021

Core Content Overview

The World Air Transport Statistics 2021 (WATS+) report provides a comprehensive analysis of the global air transport industry's performance during the year 2020, heavily impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. It highlights the stark contrast between the resilience of air cargo and the severe decline in passenger traffic, as well as the varying effects across different regions and airline types.

Key Findings

Passenger Traffic

• Global Passenger Traffic:
  • Revenue Passenger-Kilometres (RPKs) dropped by 65.9% year-on-year.
  • Total passengers carried in 2020 were 476,043 thousand, a 74.8% decline compared to 2019.
  • Domestic passenger traffic fell by 49.8%, while international traffic dropped by 74.8%.
  • China emerged as the largest domestic air travel market in 2020, accounting for ~20% of global RPKs, up from ~10% in 2019.
  • The passenger load factor decreased to 65.1%, the lowest since 1993, reflecting the massive drop in demand.

Cargo Traffic

• Global Cargo Traffic:
  • Cargo Tonne-Kilometres (CTKs) declined by 9.7% year-on-year, the largest drop since the Global Financial Crisis.
  • Despite this, air cargo showed a V-shaped recovery, with rates and revenues surging due to capacity constraints.
  • Cargo load factor increased to 53.8%, the highest since 1990, indicating strong demand relative to available capacity.
  • Air freight rates were 55.9% higher in 2020 compared to 2019, reaching $2.79/kg.

Regional Performance

• Passenger Traffic by Region:
  • All main regions saw passenger traffic drop between 60% and 75% below 2019 levels.
  • Asia Pacific had the smallest decline at 62.0%, driven by the resilience of the Chinese domestic market.
  • Europe and Latin America had the most severe declines, at 65.2% and 62.1% respectively.
• Cargo Traffic by Region:
  • North America saw a 4.5% increase in CTKs due to US fiscal stimulus.
  • Africa experienced a 1.8% growth in cargo traffic due to less stringent lockdowns.
  • Latin America and Asia Pacific had the most significant declines in cargo traffic, at -42.0% and -43.9% respectively.

Financial Impact

• Operating Margins:
  • The industry-wide operating margin (EBIT) was -28.2%, a dramatic drop from the 7% average in 2015–2019.
  • Middle East and Africa had the most resilient margins at -18.7% and -19.3%, respectively.
  • Europe and Latin America had the worst margins at -30.4% and -32.6%, respectively.
• Profitability per Passenger:
  • The net loss per passenger was $71.7, with Asia Pacific having the smallest loss at $39.5 and Latin America the highest at $89.4.
  • Total net losses reached $126.4 billion, the worst in history.

Air Connectivity

• International Air Connectivity:
  • The number of air routes fell by more than 60% in April 2020.
  • By March 2021, 50% fewer routes were in operation compared to pre-crisis levels.
  • Flight frequency dropped by 70% in April 2020, and remained at 50% of 2019 levels by March 2021.

Economic Impact

• Tourism and Trade:
  • Air tourism spending dropped to $340 billion, its lowest since 2003.
  • The value of goods carried by air fell by 10%, the second consecutive year of decline.
  • The pandemic significantly disrupted global trade and tourism, especially in developing economies reliant on these sectors.

Main Views and Key Information

Impact of the Pandemic

• The pandemic caused unprecedented disruptions in air transport, with passenger traffic dropping by 65.9% in 2020, the largest fall since the 1950s.
• Air cargo was more resilient, with a V-shaped recovery, but still experienced the largest decline since 2009.
• Travel restrictions, vaccination rates, and government policies played a crucial role in shaping regional performance.

Capacity and Load Factors

• Passenger capacity fell by 56.7%, leading to a 17.5 percentage point drop in the passenger load factor.
• Cargo capacity was also reduced, but not as severely as passenger capacity, leading to a 7.1 percentage point increase in the cargo load factor.

Financial Challenges

• The industry-wide return on invested capital (ROIC) was -18.3%, the first year of negative returns since 2008.
• Debt servicing will be a major challenge for airlines in the future due to the significant capital raised during the crisis.

Future Outlook

• Restoring air connectivity is essential for economic recovery and livelihood restoration.
• The resilience of domestic markets and the role of vaccination will be key to restarting international travel.

Conclusion

The 2020 WATS+ report underscores the devastating impact of the pandemic on the global air transport industry, with passenger traffic suffering the most. While air cargo showed resilience and even growth in certain areas, the overall financial performance of airlines was dismal, with negative returns and significant debt burdens. The recovery of air connectivity and demand remains a critical priority for the industry moving forward.