2025年全球航空运输展望报告：贸易保护主义抬头_35页_1mb

Summary of the Global Outlook for Air Transport

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the current and projected state of the global air transport industry, highlighting the effects of rising protectionism, economic slowdown, and supply chain disruptions on both passenger and cargo traffic, as well as airline profitability.

Main Takeaways

• Global GDP Growth: Expected to decelerate to around 2.5% in 2025, down from the previous 3%. The US will be the most affected, with a projected GDP growth of 1.5%, while most other major economies will see slower growth than anticipated.
• Trade Policy Impact: The imposition of high import tariffs by the US government is expected to dampen global trade and economic activity, though the relative growth of services trade has somewhat mitigated the impact.
• Oil Prices: The Brent crude oil price is expected to average USD 69 per barrel in 2025, a 13% decline from 2024, and jet fuel is projected at USD 86 per barrel, supporting airline profitability.
• Unemployment: Likely to rise slightly in major economies, but not to a recessionary level, with the increase expected to be less than 1 percentage point.
• Airline Profitability: Despite the economic headwinds, the airline industry is expected to maintain relatively strong profits, driven by lower fuel costs and higher load factors.

Protectionism on the Rise

• Impact on Global Economy: Protectionist policies, especially in the US, are expected to slow GDP growth and affect trade, with the most significant consequences for the goods sector.
• Tariff Levels: The average effective tariff rate on goods imports to the US is now 18%, the highest since the 1930s, though still lower than the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930.
• Service Trade Exemption: Since services are largely exempt from tariffs, the shrinking share of goods in global trade has somewhat reduced the negative impact of these policies.
• Global Value Chains: The complexity of these chains amplifies the effects of tariffs, leading to disruptions in production and reduced trade.

Traffic Normalization and Limited Capacity

Air Passenger Traffic

• Global Growth: Expected to slow to 5.8% YoY in 2025, down from 10.6% YoY in 2024.
• Regional Growth:
  • Asia-Pacific is projected to grow the fastest at 9% YoY.
  • Europe follows with 6% YoY growth.
  • North America is expected to grow at 0.4% YoY, a downgrade from previous forecasts.
• Load Factors: The global passenger load factor is expected to reach a record high of 84%, driven by limited supply and increased demand.
• Market Dynamics:
  • International markets are performing better than domestic, especially in Central Asia where traffic grew by 9.4% YoY.
  • North America and Latin America are experiencing declines in load factors, due to tariff uncertainty, migration policies, and currency depreciation.

Air Cargo Traffic

• Global Growth: Expected to slow significantly to 0.7% YoY in 2025, down from 11.3% YoY in 2024.
• Impact of Tariffs: The removal of the de minimis exemption in the US will curtail e-commerce growth, especially on the Asia-US trade lane.
• Cargo Load Factor: The global cargo load factor is projected to moderate in 2025 due to slower demand and increased competition from ocean freight.
• Capacity Expansion: Cargo capacity growth is constrained by supply chain issues and limited aircraft availability, with belly cargo accounting for 55% of air freight, up from 52% in 2023.
• Regional Trends:
  • Latin America led in Q1 2025 with 7.6% YoY growth in cargo traffic.
  • Asia-Pacific grew by 7.2% YoY in Q1 2025, driven by Russian airspace access and increased demand.
  • North America and Europe saw more modest growth at 2.6% and 1.7%, respectively.
• Long-Haul Growth: Long-haul routes saw a 16.6% YoY increase in 2024, though this is expected to decelerate in 2025.

Key Factors Affecting the Industry

• Fuel Costs: Lower jet fuel prices support airline profits and reduce costs.
• Aircraft Backlog: The backlog has reached a record high of 17,000 aircraft, with delivery delays indicating a shortfall of 5,400 aircraft.
• Labor and Capital Costs: These remain challenges for airlines, though the net profit margin is expected to be 3.7%, one of the best in the industry's history.
• Currency Depreciation: A weaker US dollar could support non-USD economies and mitigate the impact of higher tariffs on the airline industry.

Conclusion

The air transport industry faces a turbulent 2025, with slower growth in both passenger and cargo traffic, driven by protectionism, economic slowdown, and supply chain issues. While profits are expected to remain strong, the long-term challenges of tariff escalation and capacity constraints will continue to shape the industry's performance. The global economy's shift toward services and the relative stability of the dollar provide some buffer against the worst effects of protectionism, but uncertainty remains a key factor in the industry's outlook.