20141104-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_29页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive update on the regional markets, focusing on China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. It outlines sector performances, company results, investment recommendations, and key assumptions for the year 2015.

Main Points by Region

China

Automobile Sector:
- Sales growth in the passenger vehicle (PV) segment has slowed significantly since 3Q14, from 11% yoy in 1H14 to 7.8% yoy in 3Q14.
- The slowdown is attributed to the high base effect and the impact of car license quotas in major cities.
- Premium cars, SUVs, and MPVs continue to show strong growth (20-30% yoy), while sedan sales are expected to slow to 3% yoy in 2015.
- Market Weight is maintained for the automobile sector.
- Top Picks: Brilliance, DFM, and Zhengtong.
- Valuation Update: Geely and Great Wall Motor are upgraded from SELL to HOLD due to better-than-expected sales and fair valuations.

Hong Kong

Consumer Sector:
- September retail sales exceeded expectations.
- Market Weight is maintained for the sector.

Indonesia

Economic Update:
- Trade deficit narrowed to US$270m in September 2014, aligning with street forecasts.
- Inflation in October 2014 was at 4.83%, slightly worse than the consensus of 4.7%.
- Top Picks: Ciputra Surya (CTRS IJ) is recommended as a BUY with a target price of Rp2,910.

Malaysia

2015 Themes:
- Key sectors expected to benefit from easing energy and commodity prices: utilities, construction, and plastic manufacturers.
- Top Picks: Tenaga, Gamuda, and AirAsia.
Company Update:
- Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK) reported a 98% yoy decline in net profit for 3Q14 due to increased depreciation and interest charges.

Singapore

Yen Weakness Impact:
- Certain sectors and companies, such as selected REITs and SATS, may be affected.
- A selective view is maintained on the FSSTI, advocating a balanced portfolio of resilient large-cap stocks with reasonable yields and mid-cap stocks with strong operating cash flows.

Thailand

Company Update:
- Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB) reported results in line with expectations for 3Q14.
- BUY recommendation with a target price of Bt270.00.

Key Indices

Index	Previous Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	17366.2	-0.1	3.3	2.1	4.8
S&P 500	2017.8	-0.0	2.9	2.5	9.2
FTSE 100	6488.0	-0.9	2.0	-0.6	-3.9
AS30	5485.0	-0.4	0.8	3.2	2.5
CSI 300	2512.5	0.2	6.1	2.5	7.8
FSSTI	3290.8	0.5	2.0	1.2	3.9
HSCEI	10660.2	-0.9	3.4	3.0	-1.4
HSI	23916.0	-0.3	3.3	3.7	2.6
JCI	5085.5	-0.1	1.2	2.8	19.0
KLCI	1853.3	-0.1	1.7	0.7	-0.7
KOSPI	1953.0	-0.6	1.1	-1.2	-2.9
Nikkei 225	16413.8	4.8	7.3	4.5	0.8
SET	1579.2	-0.3	2.0	0.6	21.6
TWSE	9004.9	0.3	4.4	-1.1	4.6
BDI	1456	2.0	13.3	40.4	-36.1
CPO	2269	0.1	3.8	4.4	-11.8
Nymex Crude	78	-2.9	-3.4	-12.8	-20.5

Top Picks and Recommendations

Company	Ticker	Recommendation	Price (HK$)	Target Price (HK$)	Pot. +/-
Sunac China	1918 HK	BUY	6.89	8.45	22.6
ICBC	1398 HK	BUY	5.09	6.15	20.8
Bank Mandiri	BMRI J	BUY	10,375.00	12,500.00	20.5
Gamuda	GAM MK	BUY	5.17	5.50	6.4
DBS	DBS SP	BUY	18.82	22.68	20.5
Pacific Radiance	PACRA SP	BUY	1.05	1.76	67.6
Bangkok Bank	BBL TB	BUY	197.50	276.00	39.7
Advanced Info	ADVANC	BUY	238.00	270.00	13.4

Sell Recommendation:

UMWH Holdings (UMWH MK) is recommended as a SELL with a target price of HK$10.00 and a potential downside of -13.9%.

Key Assumptions

Country/Commodity	2013	2014F	2015F
GDP (% yoy)	7.7	7.2	7.0
Brent (US$/bbl)	110	100	85
CPO (US$/mt)	736	788	848
BDI	1,219	1,200	1,300

Sector Catalysts and Risks

Catalysts:
- Sales performance of new models.
- Market share changes due to competition and product cycles.
Risks:
- Macro Risk: Severe credit tightening may hurt automobile sales, especially for companies with long bill receivable days.
- Sector Impact: The shift in demand from first-time buyers to replacement demand will affect the growth of different car segments.

Company Update: Geely Auto (175 HK)

Sales: New Emgrand sales were better than expected, contributing to improved performance.
Valuation: Current valuation at 10.6x 2015F PE is fair, aligning with historical mean.
Target Price: Raised from HK$2.10 to HK$2.97.
Entry Price: HK$2.50.
Recommendation: Upgraded from SELL to HOLD.

Company Update: Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)

Sales: October sales exceeded expectations, with the H6 model driving growth.
Valuation: Target price raised from HK$21.50 to HK$29.00.
Entry Price: HK$25.00.
Recommendation: Upgraded from SELL to HOLD.

Financial Highlights (Geely Auto)

Metric	2013	2014F	2015F	2016F
Net Profit (Rmbm)	2,037	2,049	2,284	2,528
EBITDA Margin (%)	15.5	16.1	14.9	14.5
Net Margin (%)	9.3	9.3	8.8	8.9
ROE (%)	18.5	12.1	12.1	12.1
P/E (x)	11.5	11.8	10.6	9.6
P/B (x)	2.4	1.9	1.7	1.5
EV/EBITDA (x)	9.9	7.3	8.2	7.5

Summary of Actions

Valuation Roll Over: Valuation is rolled over from 2014 to 2015 due to reduced risk appetite.
Upgrades: Geely, Great Wall Motor, and GAC are upgraded from SELL to HOLD.
Target Price Adjustments:
- Geely: HK$2.97
- Great Wall Motor: HK$29.00
- Zhengtong: HK$6.50
- Baoxin: HK$7.00
- Zhongsheng: HK$10.50