20251209-华泰期货-尿素日报_新单成交放缓_现货价格下调_10页_2mb

Urea Daily Report Summary: 2025-12-09

Market Overview

• Spot prices have declined, with new order volume slowing down. Market analysis indicates a downward trend in prices.

Price and Basis

• The main contract closed at 1646 RMB/ton, down 27 points from the previous day.
• Regional quotes: Output prices in Henan and Shandong are 1690 RMB/ton (unchanged or slightly lower in some areas), with basis remaining around 44 RMB/ton, but varying by region.
• Production profit at 160 RMB/ton, down 30 RMB/ton; export profit at 859 RMB/ton, down 52 RMB/ton.

Supply Side

• Overall production capacity utilization is 81.82% (no change).
• Sample enterprise inventory at 129.05万吨 (decreased slightly).

Demand Side

• Fertilizer demand shows improvement; improved capacity utilization for urea-based products, with pre-received orders indicating better inventory reduction.

Trading and Strategy

• New orders have slowed; strategize for ongoing inventory changes and market activities.

Risks

• Key risks include potential export policies, ongoing plant maintenance, inventory fluctuations (as reported in data), and changes in agricultural demand