20181217-USDA-USDA_Livestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook_2018.12.17_25页_2mb

Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the production, export, and market trends for U.S. red meat, poultry, and dairy in 2018 and 2019. It highlights the expected changes in supply, demand, and pricing across different segments of the livestock industry, with a focus on how these factors influence export shares and overall market dynamics.

Key Highlights

Red Meat, Poultry, and Eggs Export Shares (2018 vs. 2019)

• Beef:

  • 2018 production: 26.9 billion pounds (+3.1%)
  • 2019 production: 27.8 billion pounds
  • Export share for 2019: ~11.8% (similar to 2018)
  • Import forecast for 2018: 3.004 billion pounds
  • Import forecast for 2019: 3.020 billion pounds (slightly higher due to tighter Oceania supplies)
  • Export forecast for 2018: 3.190 billion pounds
  • Export forecast for 2019: 3.265 billion pounds

• Pork:

  • 2018 production: ~7.0 billion pounds (+3%)
  • 2019 production: unchanged at 5.905 billion pounds
  • Export share for 2019: ~23% (up from 22.7%)
  • Export forecast for 2018: 1.655 billion pounds
  • Export forecast for 2019: increased due to strong demand in key markets

• Broilers:

  • 2018 export share: ~16.5%
  • 2019 export share: ~16.4% (slightly lower)
  • Export forecast for 2018: 2.627 billion pounds
  • Export forecast for 2019: aligned with previous forecast at 3.190 billion pounds

• Turkeys:

  • 2018 export share: ~10%
  • 2019 export share: ~10% (unchanged)
  • Production forecast for 2019: unchanged at 5.905 billion pounds

• Eggs:

  • 2018 export share: ~4%
  • 2019 export share: ~4% (unchanged)
  • Production forecast for 2019: increased by 1.5%
  • Export forecast for 2019: increased by 1.8%

Beef/Cattle Trends

• Production:

  • 2018 forecast: 26.9 billion pounds (+3.1%)
  • 2019 forecast: 27.8 billion pounds

• Slaughter:

  • Fourth-quarter 2018 slaughter increased due to strong packer demand and higher slaughter rates.
  • Steer and heifer carcass weights are expected to be lighter in early 2019, slightly lowering production forecasts.

• Prices:

  • Fourth-quarter 2018 fed steer prices: $113–$116 per cwt
  • 2019 annual fed steer price forecast: $114–$122 per cwt

• Exports:

  • 2018 export forecast: 250,000 head
  • 2019 export forecast: 255,000 head
  • Strong exports to Canada, Qatar, and Russia in October 2018.

• Imports:

  • October 2018 imports: 44,203 head (+20% year-over-year)
  • Imports for 2018: 1.885 million head
  • Imports for 2019: unchanged at 1.960 million head

Dairy Trends

• Production:

  • 2018 forecast: 217.8 billion pounds (-0.1 billion)
  • 2019 forecast: 220.6 billion pounds (-0.3 billion)

• Prices:

  • Fourth-quarter 2018 all-milk price: $16.90–$17.10 per cwt
  • Annual 2018 all-milk price: $16.15–$16.25 per cwt
  • 2019 all-milk price forecast: $16.40–$17.20 per cwt

• Exports:

  • Fourth-quarter 2018: 2.6 billion pounds (milk-fat basis)
  • Fourth-quarter 2019: increased to 10.0 billion pounds (milk-fat basis)
  • Skim-solids exports: unchanged

• Imports:

  • Fourth-quarter 2018: 2.0 billion pounds (milk-fat basis)
  • Fourth-quarter 2019: increased to 6.7 billion pounds (milk-fat basis)
  • Skim-solids imports: decreased to 5.2 billion pounds

• Stocks:

  • Ending stocks (milk-fat basis): 14.1 billion pounds (up 0.2 billion)
  • Ending stocks (skim-solids basis): 10.4 billion pounds (down 0.1 billion)

• Domestic Use:

  • Fourth-quarter 2018: 55.9 billion pounds (milk-fat basis)
  • 2019 forecast: 216.3 billion pounds (milk-fat basis)
  • 2019 forecast: 180.9 billion pounds (skim-solids basis)

Pork/Hogs Trends

• Production:

  • Fourth-quarter 2018: record high at ~7.0 billion pounds
  • 2019 production: unchanged at 5.905 billion pounds

• Prices:

  • Fourth-quarter 2018: $42–$43 per cwt (5% below 2017)
  • 2019 forecast: prices will trend higher due to strong demand and limited supply

• Exports:

  • October 2018 exports: 502 million pounds (+1.5% year-over-year)
  • Fourth-quarter 2018 exports: 1.655 billion pounds
  • 2019 export forecast: increased due to strong demand in key markets

• Import Trends:

  • Mexico and China/Hong Kong saw significant declines in pork imports due to retaliatory tariffs.
  • Other markets showed positive growth.

Poultry/Eggs Trends

• Broilers:

  • Fourth-quarter 2018 production: 10.7 billion pounds (up from previous forecast)
  • First-half 2019 production: revised down to 21.3 billion pounds due to lower slaughter rates
  • Export forecast for 2018: 2.627 billion pounds
  • Export forecast for 2019: aligned with previous forecast

• Eggs:

  • Table egg production: decreased due to slowing layer flock expansion
  • Egg prices: revised down on lower-than-expected November prices
  • Import forecast for 2018: slightly lower due to low import volume

• Turkeys:

  • 2018 production: increased by 15 million pounds to 5.890 billion pounds
  • 2019 production: unchanged at 5.905 billion pounds
  • Export share: ~10% for both 2018 and 2019

Summary of Key Market Drivers

• Beef:

  • Increased production and exports in 2018, with similar export shares in 2019.
  • Strong packer demand in the fourth quarter led to higher prices.
  • Import reductions due to lower volumes from key suppliers like Mexico and tighter Oceania supplies.

• Dairy:

  • Lower milk prices and high stock levels pressured cheese and butter prices.
  • Increased exports of butteroil and AMF supported higher export forecasts.
  • Cattle exports rose due to strong demand from Canada and other international markets.

• Pork:

  • Record-high production in the fourth quarter due to expanded processing capacity.
  • Lower prices in early 2019 due to surplus hogs, but prices are expected to rise later in the year.
  • Retaliatory tariffs impacted exports to Mexico and China/Hong Kong, but demand in other markets is strong.

• Poultry:

  • Broiler production increased slightly in 2018 but is expected to decline in early 2019.
  • Egg exports and production are forecast to remain stable, with slight increases in 2019.
  • Turkey production and exports are expected to remain consistent with 2018 levels.

Conclusion

The 2019 outlook for U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry markets suggests a continuation of trends seen in 2018, with slight increases in production and exports for beef, pork, and eggs, and stable export shares. Market dynamics are influenced by seasonal demand, supply-side adjustments, and international trade conditions, including tariffs and competition from other exporters. Overall, the U.S. remains a key player in global meat and dairy markets, supported by strong export volumes and competitive pricing.