20180416-USDA-USDA_Livestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook_2018.04.16_23页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook Report (April 16, 2018)

Live Animal Imports to the U.S.

The U.S. is a net importer of live animals, with 1.81 million head of cattle and 5.6 million head of hogs imported in 2017.
Live cattle imports are forecast to increase by 6% to 1.91 million head in 2018, while hog imports are expected to rise slightly by 1% to 5.63 million head.
Feeder cattle and finishing pigs make up the majority of live animal imports, with 67% of cattle and 85% of hogs being feeder/finishing animals in 2017.
Mexico and Canada supply the vast majority of live animals, with Mexico being the primary source of feeder cattle and Canada the main source of slaughter cattle and hogs.
Live animal import shares between feeder and slaughter categories are expected to remain largely unchanged in 2018.
Live cattle imports averaged 6% of U.S. commercial cattle slaughter from 2013–2017, while live hog imports averaged 5% of commercial hog slaughter.

Cattle/Beef Outlook

2018 beef production is forecast at 27.6 billion pounds, a reduction of 50 million pounds from the previous month due to slower fed cattle slaughter and lighter weights in the first half of the year.
Second-half 2018 production is expected to rebound with higher slaughter numbers and increased weights.
Fed steer prices fell in the first quarter, reaching $120.96 per cwt, and are expected to trend lower in the second quarter to $114.00–$118.00 per cwt.
Cattle exports are forecast to decrease slightly to 160,000 head in 2018 due to weaker Canadian demand and lower feeder calf prices.
Cattle imports in February fell by 8.6% year-over-year to 153,951 head, with Canada and Mexico seeing the largest declines.
Beef exports in February rose 9.9% to 225.8 million pounds, driven by increased demand in Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, and Mexico.
Beef import forecast for 2018 is unchanged at 3.040 billion pounds.

Dairy Outlook

Wholesale dairy prices increased for butter and cheddar cheese but decreased for nonfat dry milk (NDM) and dry whey.
U.S. dairy exports on a skim-solids basis reached 3.860 billion pounds in February, a 13.7% increase from January and 19.6% from February 2017.
NDM/SMP and lactose exports were up by 27.4% and 27.3%, respectively, compared to February 2017.
Mexico was the largest destination for NDM/SMP, accounting for 39.7% of total exports, while China was the largest destination for lactose, with 27.3% of total exports.
Domestic milk production in February reached 17.0 billion pounds, a 1.8% increase from February 2017.
Milk cow numbers remained stable, with 9.410 million head in February.
Milk per cow was 1,807 pounds, 24 pounds higher than February 2017.
Feed costs have increased seasonally, with corn at $3.38 per bushel and soybean meal at $362.85 per short ton.
Dairy margin was $6.88 per cwt, triggering payments for producers choosing protection.
2018 dairy import forecast was lower by 0.1 billion pounds to 5.6 billion pounds due to reduced dry whole milk imports.
2018 dairy export forecast remains at 9.6 billion pounds.
Domestic use is projected slightly lower at 214.7 billion pounds, and ending stocks are expected to rise to 12.9 billion pounds.
Class III and IV prices are forecast lower at $14.20–$14.70 and $13.25–$13.85 per cwt, respectively.
All-milk price is forecast at $15.60–$16.10 per cwt, a 20-cent decrease from the previous month.
The Dairy Margin Protection Program has been revised under the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018, with enrollment reopened until June 1.
A Federal Milk Marketing Order for California was finalized on March 30, with a referendum ongoing through May 5.

Pork/Hogs Outlook

The U.S. hog industry continues to expand, with record-high inventories and productivity in March 2018.
March 1 inventory of all hogs and pigs reached 72.908 million head, a 3% increase from the previous year.
Farrowing productivity was 10.58 pigs per litter, up 1% from the prior year.
Breeding animal inventory increased 2% year-over-year to 6.2 million head.
2018 commercial pork production is expected to be 6.5 billion pounds in the third quarter and 7.2 billion pounds in the fourth, both 5–6% above 2017.
Hog prices are expected to decline due to increased supply and expanding processing capacity.
Third-quarter live hog prices are forecast at $45–$49 per cwt, a 16% decrease from 2017.
Fourth-quarter prices are expected to be $37–$41 per cwt, a 13% decrease from 2017.
China imposed a 25% tariff on U.S. pork muscle cuts, which is expected to temporarily reduce U.S. pork exports to China but may enhance competitiveness in other markets.
U.S. pork exports in February increased by 9% to 491 million pounds, with Mexico and South Korea showing strong growth.
2018 total pork exports are forecast at 5.9 billion pounds.

Poultry Outlook

Broiler production in February was 3.3 billion pounds, a 3% increase over the previous year.
Hatchery data suggested reduced growth in placements, leading to a revised 2018 production forecast of 4.4 billion pounds, with 1.7% year-over-year growth.
Broiler exports in February were 552 million pounds, a 1% increase from last year.
Exports to Taiwan and Vietnam rose by 17 million and 8 million pounds, respectively, while Hong Kong, Mexico, and Canada saw declines.
Table egg inventory and hatchery data confirmed expansion intentions, with egg prices surging before Easter and forecasted to rise for the remainder of the year.
Turkey production was up slightly in February, but hatchery data and low wholesale prices suggest lower production in the coming months.