20180314-USDA-Livestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook_23页_1mb

Summary of Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook for 2018

Core Content

This document outlines the outlook for U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry markets in 2018, focusing on production, import/export trends, and price forecasts. It highlights the impact of domestic supply, international trade dynamics, and market conditions on these sectors.

Key Trends and Forecasts

Beef

• Imports:

  • U.S. beef imports in 2018 are expected to be 3.04 billion pounds, an increase of 10 million pounds from the previous forecast.
  • Imports are primarily from Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and Nicaragua.
  • Australia saw a slight decline in imports due to herd rebuilding and higher feed grain prices, while Canada increased imports by 23%.
  • Mexico experienced a 18% decline in imports, likely due to reduced availability of feeder cattle.

• Exports:

  • The 2018 beef export forecast remains unchanged at 3.025 billion pounds.
  • South Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan recorded significant increases in imports, with South Korea showing a 21% rise due to reduced tariffs.

• Production:

  • Beef production for 2018 is forecast at 27.69 billion pounds, slightly lower than the previous forecast due to lighter cattle weights and slower slaughter rates in the first quarter.
  • Steer slaughter increased year-over-year, while cow and heifer slaughter also rose, but steer dressed weights were lower, affecting overall production.

• Prices:

  • Feeder steer prices for the first quarter are forecast at $124.00–$127.00 per cwt, up from earlier forecasts.
  • Packer margins have improved due to higher wholesale beef prices and lower fed steer prices.

Poultry

• Broiler Production:

  • January 2018 broiler production was 3.6 billion pounds, 4% above the previous year.
  • The increase was driven by higher bird weights and an additional slaughter day.
  • The 2018 production forecast is 42.6 billion pounds, unchanged from earlier projections.

• Prices:

  • Broiler prices are expected to average $0.93–$0.94 per pound for the first quarter, a 5% increase over 2017.
  • Second-quarter prices are forecast to rise to $0.96–$1.00 per pound due to seasonal gains.

• Exports:

  • January broiler exports were 548 million pounds, 1% below the previous year.
  • Growth was observed in Japan, Canada, and Hong Kong, while DRC, Republic of the Congo, and Mexico saw declines.

• Table Eggs:

  • January table egg production was 653 million dozen, 1% below the previous year.
  • The 2018 production forecast is 42.6 billion pounds, with a 10 million dozen reduction in the first-quarter forecast due to lower lay rates.
  • Export growth was 25% in January, driven by increased shipments to Japan, Canada, and Hong Kong.
  • Import forecast for table eggs was lowered to 32 million dozen.

Turkey

• Production:

  • January 2018 turkey production was 509 million pounds, a 2% increase from 2017 but a 3% decrease on a per day slaughter basis.
  • The 2018 production forecast is 5.975 billion pounds, slightly below 2017 levels.

• Prices:

  • Wholesale whole-hen frozen turkey prices remained low, averaging $0.86–$0.91 per pound, 8% below 2017 levels.
  • The first-quarter price forecast was revised upward due to higher wholesale prices and lower production expectations.

• Exports:

  • January turkey exports increased by 15%, totaling 49 million pounds.
  • Mexico remains the largest destination, accounting for 70% of all U.S. turkey exports.
  • The 2018 export forecast is 635 million pounds, a 2% increase over 2017.

Dairy

• Imports:

  • Dairy imports in January were 2.9% of domestic disappearance, slightly reduced to 2.7% for 2018.
  • China was the top destination for U.S. dairy imports, with 1.241 billion U.S. dollars in January, unchanged from 2014 levels.
  • Imports on a milk-fat basis were 424 million pounds, 123 million below January 2017.
  • Imports on a skim-solids basis were 487 million pounds, 91 million below January 2017.

• Exports:

  • Dairy exports in January were 685 million pounds on a milk-fat basis and 3.395 billion pounds on a skim-solids basis.
  • Export forecasts for 2018 were increased to 9.6 billion pounds (milk-fat) and 42.8 billion pounds (skim-solids) due to strong cheese and whey product exports.

• Production:

  • U.S. milk production in January was 18.5 billion pounds, 1.8% above 2017.
  • The 2018 milk production forecast was raised to 219.0 billion pounds, 0.3 billion above the previous forecast.
  • Milk per cow increased to 1,962 pounds, 63.3 pounds per day, showing a 1.3% growth compared to 2017.

• Prices:

  • Butter prices are forecast at $2.210–$2.300 per pound, up from recent levels.
  • Cheddar cheese prices are expected to rise slightly to $1.545–$1.605 per pound.
  • Nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices are forecast to fall to $0.700–$0.750 per pound.
  • Dry whey prices are expected to decrease to $0.265–$0.295 per pound.
  • All-milk price forecast remains $15.75–$16.35 per cwt, unchanged at the midpoint.

• Stocks:

  • Beginning stocks for 2018 were lowered to 11.8 billion pounds (skim-solids).
  • Ending stocks are expected to be 12.8 billion pounds (milk-fat) and 11.3 billion pounds (skim-solids), reflecting strong exports and moderate import levels.

Key Information

• Lamb imports are expected to make up 64.3% of domestic disappearance, up from 64% in 2017, due to continued reliance on Oceania.
• Cattle imports for 2018 were revised to 1.905 million head, reflecting declines from Canada and Mexico.
• Feed prices for corn, soybean meal, and alfalfa hay have increased, with corn at $3.15–$3.55 per bushel, soybean meal at $325–$355 per short ton, and alfalfa hay at $152 per short ton.
• Dairy markets are showing competitive pricing and strong export performance, particularly in cheese and whey products.
• Turkey production is slightly lower than 2017 due to lower lay rates and reduced returns from low wholesale prices.
• Broiler production is expected to remain stable at 42.6 billion pounds, with prices slightly higher than 2017 due to demand and seasonal factors.

Conclusion

The U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry sectors are expected to show mixed trends in 2018. Beef and poultry are projected to see slight increases in production and moderate price rises, while turkey production is slightly lower. Dairy is showing strong export performance and competitive pricing, but import levels are reduced. Imports are dominated by Australia and Canada, while exports are growing in key markets like South Korea, China, and Japan. Cattle and feeder steer prices are expected to remain relatively strong, especially in the second quarter, due to supply constraints and seasonal demand.