20210716-USDA-USDA_Livestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook_2021.07.16_30页_1008kb

Summary of Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook

Core Content Overview

This document provides an outlook for the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry sectors for the years 2021 and 2022, focusing on export trends, production forecasts, price movements, and import dynamics.

Export Projections

Red Meat

• 2021: Total exports are projected to increase by 7.2% year over year.
• 2022: Exports are expected to decline by 0.9% compared to 2021.

Beef

• 2021: Beef exports are expected to increase by 16.0%, driven by strong demand from China, Japan, and South Korea.
• 2022: Beef exports are projected to decline by 3.0%, though the annual forecast was raised to 3.320 billion pounds due to continued demand from Asia.
• May 2021: Beef exports reached a record 318 million pounds, up 69% from May 2020, with South Korea, Japan, and China being the top contributors.

Pork

• 2021: Pork exports are expected to increase by 3.7%.
• 2022: Exports are projected to remain stable at 7.6 billion pounds.
• Production: Lower pork production forecasts for the remainder of 2021 and 2022 due to June Quarterly Hogs and Pigs data.

Poultry and Eggs

• Broilers: Exports are expected to increase by 1.1% in 2021, with strong demand from Mexico and China.
• Turkeys: Exports are expected to increase by 1.6% in 2021, driven by May data.
• Eggs and Egg Products: Exports are projected to increase by 10.7% in 2021, mainly due to demand from Canada and South Korea.
• 2022: Exports of eggs and egg products are expected to decline by 4.1%.

Production and Price Trends

Beef Production

• 2021: Forecast remains unchanged at 27.905 billion pounds, as higher cow slaughter is offset by lower carcass weights.
• 2022: Forecast reduced by 10 million pounds to 27.325 billion pounds.
• Carcass Weights: Lower than expected due to drought conditions in the western and northern U.S..
• Prices:
  • Fed steers in June averaged $122.02 per cwt, up $18 year over year.
  • Annual 2021 fed steer price forecast was raised to $119.20 per cwt.
  • 2022 fed steer price forecast is unchanged at $122 per cwt.
  • Feeder steers in June averaged $144.09 per cwt, up 10% from a year ago.

Lamb and Mutton

• 2021: Lamb prices are the highest in recent years, with second-quarter 2021 forecast at $190 per cwt.
• Actual reported prices: $211.79 per cwt, higher than forecast.
• Import Forecasts: Increased for second, third, and fourth quarters of 2021 due to rising demand.
• Production: No changes in lamb and mutton production forecasts for 2021 and 2022.

Dairy Outlook

Export Trends

• 2021: Dairy exports are expected to increase by 8.7% on a skim-solids milk-equivalent basis.
• 2022: Exports are projected to remain stable.
• Top Destinations: Mexico, China, and Southeast Asia.
• May 2021: Dairy exports reached a record 4.879 billion pounds, up 117 million pounds from May 2020.

Wholesale Prices

• Decline: Prices for cheddar cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk, and dry whey declined from June 12 to July 10.
• Cheddar cheese: Down 8.9 cents to $1.5365 per pound.
• Butter: Down 1.3 cents to $1.7836 per pound.
• Nonfat dry milk: Down 1.3 cents to $1.2557 per pound.
• Dry whey: Down 2.9 cents to $0.6287 per pound.
• Export Competitiveness: U.S. dairy prices remain competitive with international prices, especially in Western Europe and Oceania.

Production and Use

• Milk Production:
  • May 2021: 19.850 billion pounds, up 28 million pounds from May 2020.
  • Daily production per cow: 67.4 pounds, down 0.5 pounds from April.
• Supply and Use:
  • Domestic use (milk-fat basis) for March–May 2021 was 4.1% higher than 2020.
  • Skim-solids basis domestic use was only 0.8% higher.
• Stock Levels:
  • May 2021: Commercial stocks on a milk-fat basis reached a record high.
  • Skim-solids basis: Stock levels increased 543 million pounds from April to May.

Import Trends

Beef Imports

• May 2021: Total imports 270 million pounds, up 1.7 million pounds from May 2020.
• Top Sources:
  • Canada: Up 18 million pounds, the largest in volume since 2010.
  • Brazil: Up 12.7 million pounds, a 115% increase.
  • Mexico: Down 18.8 million pounds.
  • Australia: Down 39%, due to herd rebuilding efforts.
• Annual Forecast: Unchanged at 3.021 billion pounds for 2021 and 2.990 billion pounds for 2022.

Dairy Imports

• May 2021: Imports totaled 531 million pounds on a milk-fat basis, 40 million pounds below May 2020.
• Skim-solids basis: Imports totaled 499 million pounds, up 37 million pounds from April.

Tariff Developments

• Retaliatory Tariffs:
  • Suspended for 5 years by the U.S. and EU in June 2021.
  • A similar agreement was reached with the UK on June 17, 2021.
• These tariffs were initially imposed in October 2019 due to a dispute over large civilian aircraft.

Feed Prices Outlook

• Corn: 2021/22 price projection at $5.60 per bushel, 10 cents lower than previous forecast.
• Soybean Meal: 2021/22 price projection at $395 per short ton, $5 lower than previous forecast.
• Alfalfa Hay: May 2021 price at $194 per short ton, up $7 from April and $15 from May 2020.

Key Challenges

• Drought: Affects cattle and dairy production, particularly in the western and northern U.S..
• Feed Costs: Rising costs have impacted milk yields, with a milk-feed ratio declining from 2.56 in November 2020 to 1.69 in May 2021.
• Market Demand: Strong demand from Asia has supported beef exports, while lower demand has affected eggs and egg products in 2022.

Summary of Key Trends

• Beef exports surged in May 2021 due to strong demand from Asia, but are expected to decline slightly in 2022.
• Pork exports are expected to remain stable, with lower production in 2021.
• Poultry exports (broilers and turkeys) are projected to increase slightly in 2021, but decline in 2022.
• Egg exports are forecast to increase in 2021, but decline in 2022.
• Dairy exports are strong in 2021, with higher prices due to strong demand and lower domestic use.
• Drought continues to affect cattle and dairy production, but demand remains robust in key markets like Asia.