20150917-USDA-USDA_Livestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook_2015.9.17._22页_521kb

报告摘要

Summary of Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook (LDP-M-255, Sept. 17, 2015)

Core Content

This report provides an outlook for U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry markets for the second half of 2015 and early 2016. It highlights the impact of the strong U.S. dollar on export competitiveness, as well as the effects of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak on the poultry industry.

Main Views

Red Meat and Dairy Exports

The high value of the U.S. dollar has continued to negatively impact U.S. red meat and dairy exports by making them more expensive for foreign buyers.
USDA has lowered its second-half 2015 beef export forecast by 55 million pounds, with a total expected export volume of 2.3 billion pounds, a 10.3 percent decrease from 2014.
Dairy exports have also been reduced due to lower demand and increased global competition, with the forecast for 2015 dairy exports at 1.2 billion pounds and 2016 at 1.3 billion pounds.

Beef/Cattle Market

Cattle on Feed: Cattle on feed in 1,000-plus feedlots reached 10 million head in August 2015, up 3 percent from 2014, with the 800-plus-pound category increasing by 19 percent.
Fed Cattle Prices: Third-quarter 2015 fed cattle prices are forecast at $144–$147 per cwt, a decline of about $10 from the previous year.
Slaughter and Production: Cattle slaughter in July 2015 was 1.73 million head, 3 percent lower than 2014. Beef production for 2015 is forecast at 23.5 billion pounds, down 3 percent from 2014.
Packers' Margins: Beef packers have seen improved margins due to falling live cattle prices and reduced slaughter volumes, although this could lead to further price declines if fed cattle supplies backlog.

Pork/Hogs Market

Pork Production: USDA has slightly lowered third-quarter 2015 pork production forecasts due to lower slaughter rates and average dressed weights, with an expected 5.9 billion pounds for the third quarter.
Pork Exports: July 2015 pork exports were 395 million pounds, a 0.5 percent decrease from 2014. Mexico became the largest buyer of U.S. pork in July, accounting for 33 percent of shipments.
Hog Weights and Slaughter: Hog weights in 2015 followed a typical seasonal pattern, with a decline in mid-June and recovery in August. Average dressed weights were 209 pounds in August, lower than 2014 levels.

Poultry Market

HPAI Impact: The HPAI outbreak led to a significant decline in U.S. poultry exports, particularly affecting turkey and egg markets.
Broiler Production and Exports: Broiler meat production in July 2015 was 3.5 billion pounds, 4 percent higher than 2014. However, exports were down, leading to increased domestic stocks and lower prices.
Turkey Production: July 2015 turkey production fell 11 percent to 448 million pounds, primarily due to the HPAI outbreak. Exports were also reduced, but this was largely offset by lower production.
Egg Production: Table egg production in July 2015 dropped 12 percent to 544 million dozen, while hatching egg production increased by 4 percent. Egg prices rose sharply due to reduced supply and limited exports.

Key Information

Exchange Rate Impact: The strong U.S. dollar has reduced the competitiveness of U.S. red meat and dairy exports, contributing to lower export volumes.
HPAI Effects: The outbreak has caused a decline in poultry exports, leading to higher domestic stocks and lower prices, especially in broiler and turkey segments.
Production Trends:
- Beef production is forecast to decrease by 3 percent in 2015 and remain stable in 2016.
- Pork production is expected to increase slightly in the third quarter, but overall, the U.S. pork export volume is forecast to rise in 2016.
- Broiler production is expected to grow slowly in 2016 due to a decline in chick placements but an increase in average bird weights.
- Turkey production is forecast to decrease in the third and fourth quarters, leading to potential price increases for turkey parts.
Export Markets:
- Mexico has become the largest foreign buyer of U.S. pork, but its unit value is significantly lower than Japan's due to economic and structural differences.
- Strong U.S. pork exports may partially offset lower beef and poultry exports to Mexico.
Dairy Prices:
- All-milk prices for 2015 are forecast at $16.80–$17.00 per cwt, up from the previous year.
- For 2016, dairy prices are expected to be lower, ranging from $16.10–$17.10 per cwt.
Trade Dynamics:
- The U.S. dollar's strength has both hindered exports and boosted imports, particularly of lean processing beef.
- Imports of lean beef from Australia and New Zealand are expected to slow in the fourth quarter due to approaching tariff rate quotas.
- Fresh/chilled beef imports from Mexico remain strong, and thermally processed beef imports from Brazil continue to increase.

Tables and Reports

Red Meat and Poultry Table: Released on Sept. 29, 2015.
Dairy Forecast Table: Also released on Sept. 29, 2015.
Next Newsletter Release: Oct. 16, 2015.
Special Articles:
- "Effect of the Trans-Pacific Partnership on U.S. Dairy Trade"
- "Determinants of Japanese Demand for U.S. Pork Products in 2012"
- "U.S. Pork Production Rises on a Smaller Base of Breeding Animals"