20241118-正信期货-豆粕周报_南美大豆丰产预期偏浓_美豆及连粕震荡偏弱_15页_1mb

South America's abundant soybean harvest projections have led to a moderate downturn in soybean markets, with M2505 bean meal prices falling by approximately 1.26% to 2814 yuan per ton during the week. Brazil's accelerated soybean planting progress and favorable weather conditions have pressured U.S. soybean prices downward in the current market.

The cost side primarily centers around South America and the U.S.: Brazil's weather conditions remain conducive for soybean growth, while the U.S. soybean harvest completion rate has increased to 96%, influenced by La Nina forecasts. An elevated corn-to-soybean price spread suggests inventory adjustments are taking place. Shipment data indicates a surge in U.S. export sales, with the export gap widening to 15.55 million tons, while Brazil's planting pace accelerates. Domestic inventory reports highlight stable or growing soybean reserves, signaling ample supply, while demand indicators show an average level.

The overall tone points toward a sustained bearish outlook, influenced by balanced domestic inventories during the delivery period and elevated import inventory levels. Continued risk pressures on soybean pricing may contribute to a larger downward trend in prices.

Key highlights for the week:

1. U.S. soybean export sales eased to 15.55 million tons, slightly lagging initial expectations.
2. Brazil's accelerated planting pace suggests favorable harvest conditions.
3. The U.S. harvested soybean volume increased beyond la Niña forecast projections.
4. The corn-to-soybean price spread remains wide.

This summary reflects specific developments observed this week but does not project market trends.