群邑-2020年全球广告年中报告（英文）-2020.6-17页_486kb

2020-2021 Global Advertising and Media Trends Summary

Overview

2020 was a highly disruptive year globally, marked by significant social and economic upheaval due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Countries experienced strikes, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainty, with the pandemic leading to widespread restrictions and stimulus measures. Despite these challenges, the global advertising economy is expected to decline more sharply than during the 2009 financial crisis, with a projected 11.8% drop in 2020. The year 2021 is anticipated to see a recovery, with an estimated 8.2% growth in global advertising (excluding U.S. political spend), reflecting a shift in consumer behavior and business strategies.

Key Assumptions

• The full impact of the pandemic will vary by market, depending on government and societal responses.
• A vaccine is expected to be developed and distributed by mid-2021, leading to a return of normal activities.
• Professional sports and other in-person events may resume, influencing media and advertising spend.
• Economic activity is expected to normalize by 2022, though the pace of recovery will depend on the scale of the pandemic's impact and the presence of social safety nets.

Advertising Growth Forecasts

• 2020 Global Advertising Decline: 11.8% (excluding U.S. political spend), 9.9% including it.
• 2021 Global Advertising Growth: 8.2% (excluding U.S. political spend), 5.9% including it.
• Top Markets:
  • U.S. (decline of 7.5% including political spend)
  • China (growth of 2.8%)
  • Japan (growth of 15%)
  • U.K. (growth of 12.6%)
  • Germany (growth of 10.6%)
  • Brazil (growth of 15%)
  • Australia (growth of 25.2%)
• Only Growth Markets: Indonesia (5.8%), Argentina (nominal growth, but inflation-adjusted decline).

Impact on Media and Consumers

• Consumer Behavior: Increased time at home led to higher media consumption, rapid e-commerce growth, and accelerated digital transformation.
• TV Advertising:
  • Decline of 17.6% in 2020, expected to rebound to 5.9% in 2021.
  • Digital extensions of TV are expected to grow by +3.7% in 2020 and +11.4% in 2021.
  • TV's share of advertising declined from 37% in 2019 to 26.2% in 2020.
• Outdoor Advertising:
  • Decline of 25.0% in 2020, with a projected rebound of 14.9% in 2021.
  • Outdoor advertising's share of total advertising is expected to decrease further.
• Print Advertising:
  • Decline of 26.1% in 2020, with a projected slight recovery of -1.5% in 2021.
  • Print's share of advertising activity is expected to continue to fall, from 7.4% in 2019 to 4.1% in 2024.
• Audio Advertising:
  • Decline of 23.0% in 2020, with a projected slight recovery of 0.4% in 2021.
  • Audio's share of advertising is expected to decline from 5.5% in 2019 to 3.9% in 2024.
• Digital Advertising:
  • Share of total advertising rose to 54% in 2020 (up from 48% in 2019), with projections to reach 67% by 2024.
  • Digital advertising is expected to decline by 2.4% in 2020, but rebound with high single-digit growth in 2021.

Digital Extensions

• Definition: Digital extensions refer to digital advertising associated with traditional media.
• 2020 Digital Extensions: $31 billion, or 13% of total advertising activity.
• 2024 Forecast: Digital extensions will account for 16% of traditional media advertising.
• Outdoor Digital Extensions: $9 billion, or 31% of total outdoor activities.
• TV Digital Extensions: $12 billion, or 9% of total TV spending.

Conclusion

• Marketers should reassess their budget allocation strategies in light of the pandemic's impact and the shift toward digital media.
• Opportunities exist for those who can sustain or expand budgets, as share of voice gains can lead to share of sale gains in the future.
• Marketers should focus on understanding evolving consumer needs and investing in more efficient and effective marketing methods.
• Industry average growth rates are not sufficient; strategies should aim for above-average growth, especially in challenging economic conditions.
• The integration of digital extensions into traditional media budgets is essential for accurate forecasting and strategic planning.