群邑-2020年美国广告年中报告（英文）-2020.6-17页_777kb

报告摘要

U.S. Mid-Year Forecast Report Summary (June 2020)

Core Content

This report provides a comprehensive forecast of the U.S. advertising market and its various media channels for 2020 and beyond, considering the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the upcoming national elections. It outlines the challenges faced by the media industry and consumers, the assumptions made in forecasting, and the expected performance across different advertising sectors.

Main Points

Economic Context: The U.S. economy is facing one of its worst declines since the Great Depression, with a projected 5.7% inflation-adjusted GDP drop in 2020. The pandemic has disproportionately affected low-income and underrepresented communities, as well as smaller businesses.
Market Uncertainty: The economic recovery timeline remains uncertain due to the ongoing pandemic and the potential for a second wave. The outcome of the national elections may further influence the market.
Consumer Behavior: Consumers have increased their media consumption at home, leading to a surge in e-commerce activity and a shift toward hybrid business models that combine online and offline purchasing.
Advertising Trends: The advertising market is expected to decline in 2020 but show signs of recovery in 2021, with some sectors rebounding more quickly than others.

Key Information

Advertising Forecasts

Total Advertising (Excludes Political Advertising): Expected to decline by 13% in 2020, followed by 4% growth in 2021.
Total Advertising (Includes Political Advertising): Expected to decline by 8% in 2020, followed by a 1% decline in 2021.
Political Advertising: Projected to reach $15 billion in 2020, up from $8 billion in 2018, with $3.5 billion allocated to local TV and $1.5 billion to digital media in 2020.

Media-Specific Forecasts

Media Type	2020 (in $mm)	2021 (in $mm)	2020 Growth	2021 Growth
Total TV	61,069.8	53,920.0	-7.1%	-11.7%
National TV	38,024.8	40,138.7	-11.3%	5.6%
Local TV	23,045.1	13,781.3	-34.4%	-40.2%
Total Radio	12,747.4	11,329.5	-26.4%	-11.1%
Total Newspapers	8,257.2	6,473.2	-33.1%	-16.4%
Total Magazines	8,480.0	7,089.4	-21.5%	-11.8%
Out-of-Home	6,607.6	7,083.8	-21.0%	7.2%
Direct Mail	13,401.0	13,074.2	-15.7%	-2.4%
Directories	1,321.4	874.4	-37.6%	-33.8%
Pure-Play Internet	105,213.9	117,660.4	-2.5%	11.8%

Digital Advertising

Expected to decline by 3% in 2020, or be flat when including political advertising.
Projected to rebound with 12% underlying growth in 2021, or 9% including political advertising.
Pure-play internet media is expected to account for 49% of total advertising in 2020, rising to 54% in 2021.
Digital extensions (traditional media with digital offerings) are expected to account for 15% of total internet-related media in 2020, increasing to 18% in 2021.

Television Advertising

Total TV: Decline of 7% in 2020, followed by 12% growth in 2021.
National TV: Decline of 11% in 2020, with 6% growth in 2021.
Local TV: Expected to decline by 34% in 2020, rebounding slightly to 10% growth in 2021.
Digital Extensions: Expected to decline by 3% in 2020, with 15% growth in 2021.

Print Advertising

Newspapers & Magazines: Expected to decline by 26% in 2020, followed by 20% in 2021.
Newspapers: Declined by 33.1% in 2020, with a 21.6% decline in 2021.
Magazines: Declined by 21.5% in 2020, with a 11.8% decline in 2021.

Out-of-Home (OOH) Advertising

Expected to decline by 21% in 2020, with 7.2% growth in 2021.
Digital revenue is expected to account for 38% of OOH activity in 2020, rising to 40% in 2021.

Audio Advertising

Expected to fall by 24% in 2020, followed by 7% in 2021.
Digital formats, particularly podcasts, are expected to grow in appeal to marketers.

Direct Mail & Directories

Direct Mail: Expected to decline by 15.7% in 2020, or 2.5% including political advertising.
Directories: Expected to decline by 38% in 2020, with 34% in 2021, and generate less than $1 billion in 2021.

Conclusion

The advertising market is expected to show signs of recovery in 2021, with digital media leading the way.
Marketers should focus on above-average growth and adapting to evolving consumer needs rather than relying solely on industry averages.
The return of normalcy is uncertain, and the impact of the pandemic will continue to shape media consumption and advertising strategies for the foreseeable future.

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