2025-06-04-Jefferies-卡普空公司（9697）_上调预期和目标价至5100日元_因_怪物猎人_荒野_的收益顺风维持买入评级_10页_578kb

Capcom Co. Ltd. (9697 JP / CCOEY) Equity Research

Rating: BUY
Price Target: ¥5,100 (up from ¥4,230)
Previous Price: ¥4,360

Key Highlights:

• Raised Price Target: New PT to ¥5,100 based on 30x FY3/27e EPS of ¥170, reflecting better-than-expected MH Wilds sales.
• Upgraded Rating: Maintained BUY rating due to multi-year earnings growth potential driven by MHW2, RE9 updates, and Switch 2 porting.
• Main Driver: MH Wilds catalog sales (expected 10m units sold) will drive earnings from FY3/26 onwards. MHW2 ("Monster Hunter: Wilds") launch in FY3/25 Q4 provides near-term growth.
• Catalysts: Updates on Resident Evil 9 (RE9) launch date; successful monetization of catalog titles like MH Now; Switch 2 game ports (SF6, Kunitsu-Gami).
• Financial Projections:
  • Revenue: ¥200.1bn (FY3/25), ¥220.4bn (FY3/26), growing at 18% YoY in FY3/26.
  • Operating Profit (OP): ¥86.6bn (FY3/25), ¥97.6bn (FY3/26), OP growth 31.6% in FY3/26.
  • EPS: ¥63.0 (FY3/25), ¥71.1 (FY3/26), NPM 31.5%.
• Valuation: PT ¥5,100 (¥5,100 vs PT 3820) with upside/downside scenarios of +63.8% (+¥7,140) and -12.4% (+¥3,820).
• Margin Leadership: Capcom maintains industry-high operator profit margins (50%+), driven by digital sales push. Digital content segment contributes significantly.

Conclusion: Capcom's strong position in high-margin digital games, particularly fueled by MH Wilds, supports the revised price target and BUY recommendation.