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Feed Outlook Summary: May 2022

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and global feed grain outlook for the 2022/23 marketing year, highlighting changes in production, use, prices, and export projections.

Main Points

U.S. Corn Outlook

• Production: Projected at 14,460 million bushels, a 4.3% decline from the 2021/22 estimate.
• Supply: Total U.S. corn supplies are expected to be 15,925 million bushels, down nearly 3% from the previous year.
• Planting Intentions: Producers intend to plant 89.5 million acres, a 4% reduction from 2021/22.
• Yield: Projected at 177.0 bushels per acre, largely unchanged from the 2021/22 crop.
• Use: Total corn use is projected at 14,565 million bushels, a nearly 3% decrease from the previous year.
• Feed and Residual Use: Projected at 5,350 million bushels, a 5% decline from 2021/22.
• Ending Stocks: Projected at 1,360 million bushels, resulting in a 9.3% stocks-to-use ratio.
• Farm Price: Season-average farm price is projected at $6.75 per bushel, up $0.85 from the 2021/22 estimate of $5.90.
• Exports: Projected at 62 million bushels, a 1.5 million-ton reduction from the previous year, but still the 4th highest on record.

U.S. Sorghum Outlook

• Production: Projected at 381 million bushels, a 15% decline from 2021/22.
• Planting Area: Expected to be 6.2 million acres, a reduction of 1.1 million acres.
• Yield: Projected at 69.3 bushels per acre, slightly higher than the previous year.
• Use: Total use is projected at 390 million bushels, a 10% decrease from 2021/22.
• Exports: Projected at 285 million bushels, a 5% decline from the previous year.
• Farm Price: Projected at $6.65 per bushel for 2022/23.

U.S. Barley Outlook

• Production: Projected at 181 million bushels, a 54% increase from 2021/22 due to higher planted area.
• Planting Area: Expected to be 2.9 million acres, the highest in 5 years.
• Yield: Projected at 75.5 bushels per acre, up from 60.4 bushels per acre in 2021/22.
• Use: Projected at 167 million bushels, up 16% from the previous year.
• Ending Stocks: Projected at 80 million bushels, up from the 2021/22 estimate.
• Farm Price: Season-average farm price is projected at $7.35 per bushel, the highest in at least 60 years.

U.S. Oat Outlook

• Production: Projected at 59 million bushels, a 49% increase from the drought-affected 2021/22 crop.
• Total Supplies: Projected at 182 million bushels, up 17% from the previous year.
• Use: Total use is projected at 148 million bushels, up 16% from the previous year.
• Feed and Residual Use: Projected at 65 million bushels, returning to historical averages.
• Farm Price: Projected at $5.70 per bushel, up from the 2021/22 estimate of $4.40.

International Outlook

Global Coarse Grain Production

• Total Production: Projected at 1,475.9 million tons, a 1.5% decline from 2021/22.
• U.S. Production: Projected to decline by 16.6 million tons (4.1%), contributing to the global reduction.
• Ukraine Production: Expected to drop significantly due to war, with a 31% reduction in coarse grain area and lower output.
• World Exports: Forecast to contract by 3.7%, driven by reduced Ukrainian exports, though some countries may offset this decline.

Global Barley Production

• Total Production: Projected at 149 million tons, up 3.9 million tons from 2021/23.
• Ukraine Barley: Projected at about 20% lower than the 5-year average, with a smaller reduction compared to corn.
• U.S. Barley: Projected to increase by 23% in planted area, contributing to the global increase.

Global Oat Production

• Total Production: Projected to increase by 5.4%, with significant growth in the U.S., Canada, Australia, and Russia.

Key Information

• Ukraine's Impact: The Russian military invasion has severely impacted Ukraine's grain production and exports, particularly through the blockade of key ports.
• Price Trends: Global grain prices are elevated due to tight supplies and geopolitical tensions, while domestic prices in Ukraine are depressed due to limited export opportunities.
• Input Costs: High input costs, including fertilizer and fuel, are reducing the attractiveness of planting corn in Ukraine.
• Ethanol Use: Ethanol use is projected to remain unchanged year over year, but production has slowed due to lower operating margins and reduced gasoline demand.

Summary of Changes

Conclusion

The 2022/23 feed grain outlook is characterized by tighter supplies and higher prices in the U.S. and globally, largely due to reduced production, delayed planting, and the impact of the war in Ukraine. While some crops like barley and oats show positive trends, corn and sorghum face significant challenges. The report highlights the uncertainty in global projections due to ongoing conflicts and emphasizes the need for continued monitoring of market conditions and input availability.