20220211-USDA-USDA_Feed_Outlook_2022.2.11_24页_900kb

Feed Outlook Summary: February 2022

Core Content Overview

This report provides an updated outlook for U.S. and global feed grain markets for the 2021/22 marketing year, based on the February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. It outlines the supply, demand, prices, and trade dynamics for corn, sorghum, barley, and oats, with a focus on domestic and international trends.

Domestic Outlook

Corn

• Production Outlook: Unchanged at 15,115 million bushels, the second-largest on record.
• Supply and Use: Total supply and use remain unchanged at 16,375 million bushels.
• Prices: The season-average farm price for corn is projected at $5.45 per bushel, unchanged from the January report.
• Cash Markets: Monthly prices received by producers remain historically strong, with December 2021 averaging $5.47 per bushel, up from $3.97 per bushel in December 2020.
• Ethanol Use: Ethanol demand remains strong, with projections at 5,325 million bushels. The pace of ethanol production has been high, driven by strong margins and increased utilization.
• Export Demand: Strong export demand continues, with prices at Gulf export terminals averaging $7.04 per bushel in January 2022.

Sorghum

• Production Outlook: Unchanged at 448 million bushels.
• Prices: Cash prices have remained high, averaging $6.49 per bushel in January 2022, slightly above corn prices.
• Exports: Unchanged at 310 million tons, with 87% of total exports going to China and 7% to Mexico.

Barley

• Production Outlook: Unchanged at 118 million bushels.
• Supply and Use: Total supplies are projected at 198 million bushels, down from 258 million bushels in 2020/21.
• Prices: Season-average farm price is projected at $5.15 per bushel, up from $4.75 per bushel in 2020/21.
• Imports: Remain unchanged at 9 million bushels, but represent the highest volume since 2017/18 due to increased deliveries from Canada and the EU.

Oats

• Supply and Use: Unchanged from the January report.
• Prices: Season-average farm price is raised to $4.00 per bushel, up from $3.80 in January.
• Cash Market: Spot prices in Minneapolis averaged $7.06 per bushel in January, down slightly from December but still more than double the previous five-year average.

International Outlook

World Coarse Grain Production

• Total Production: Projected down by 2.7 million tons to 1,497.4 million tons.
• Corn: Reduced by 1.6 million tons to 1,205.3 million tons due to poor harvests in Brazil and Paraguay.
• Barley: Reduced by 1.3 million tons to 145.8 million tons, with significant declines in Iraq, Syria, and the UK.
• Sorghum: Slightly increased by 0.2 million tons to 65.3 million tons, with higher output in Australia and the EU.
• Oats: Reduced by 0.2 million tons to 22.7 million tons, with lower output in Kazakhstan and Uruguay.

Key Countries

• Brazil: Corn production is reduced to 114.0 million tons, with the first-crop affected by extreme heat and dry conditions. Second-crop (safrinha) planting is progressing faster, reducing yield risks.
• Paraguay: Corn production cut by 0.7 million tons to 3.3 million tons, due to prolonged drought and heat.
• Iraq and Syria: Barley production is significantly reduced due to extreme drought, with Iraq's output down 46% from the previous report.
• Argentina: Corn output increased by 1.0 million tons to 51.5 million tons, with strong exports and competitive prices due to a weaker currency.

Key Trends and Drivers

• Domestic Corn Prices: Remain strong, with the highest projected season-average price since 2012/13.
• Ethanol Demand: Strong ethanol use continues to support corn demand, with a 6% increase from 2020/21.
• Export Dynamics: U.S. corn exports are projected to be the second-largest in the marketing year, at 2,425 million bushels, down from the record 2020/21.
• Global Supply Constraints: Reduced global production and tight supplies are leading to higher prices and affecting trade flows, particularly in regions like the Middle East.
• Sorghum and Barley: Prices and exports remain volatile, influenced by weather conditions and market demand shifts.

Summary of Projections

Conclusion

The 2021/22 feed grain outlook shows a mix of strong domestic prices and reduced global production, especially in corn and barley. While U.S. exports remain robust, they are not expected to reach the record levels of the previous year. Strong ethanol demand continues to be a key driver of corn utilization, and international trade dynamics, particularly in Brazil and Argentina, are influencing global supply and demand.