20160512-辉立证券-Siam_Future_Development_1QFY16_earnings_in_line_with_forecast_11页_1mb

Siam Future Development (SFD) 1QFY16 Results and Outlook Summary

核心内容

Siam Future Development (SFD) released its 1QFY16 financial results, showing a net profit of Bt311mn, which was in line with expectations. The company experienced a year-over-year (y-y) increase in net profit by 50.4%, primarily driven by a Bt100mn gain on asset revaluation from the renewal of lease contracts for Thong Lor Soi 4 and Tungmahamek projects. However, the quarterly profit dropped by 61.4% compared to the previous quarter due to a high base effect from substantial gains in 4QFY16.

主要观点

• 1QFY16业绩表现：SFD's net profit was Bt311mn, matching the forecast, with a y-y growth of 50.4%.
• 收入增长：Revenue rose by 6.4% to Bt359mn, reflecting strong performance in the retail lease business.
• 收益驱动因素：The asset revaluation gain was a key contributor to the profit increase.
• 未来展望：Analysts expect a 2.4% y-y growth in retail lease revenue for 2QFY16, with a projected net profit of Bt250.6mn. The full-year revenue is forecasted to grow by 7.5% to Bt856.3mn.
• 主要驱动力：
  1. New replacement MAKRO at Petchakasem Power Center, which will begin generating revenue in June.
  2. Opening of LPN Rangsit Klong 1 in late 2QFY16.
  3. Potential 20%-30% increase in rental rates at Chachoengsao due to BIGC's development plans and the termination of SF's discount campaign.
• 盈利预测：Despite the gains, the net profit for FY16 is expected to fall by 29.2% to Bt996mn due to the comparison with the previous year's gains.
• 投资建议：The 'BUY' rating is maintained with a target price of Bt8.40, representing a 38.2% increase from the current closing price of Bt6.10.

关键信息

• 公司数据：
  • Outstanding Shares: 1,777 million
  • Market Cap (Bt): 10,837 million
  • Market Cap (USD): 307 million
  • 52-Week High/Low (Bt): 6.55/5.1
  • 3M Average Daily Turnover (mn): 2.13
  • Par Value (Bt): 1.00
• 主要股东（截至2016年4月）：
  1. MAJOR CINEPLEX GROUP: 24.2%
  2. LUCKY SECURITIES, INC.: 8.1%
  3. Nopporn Witoonchart: 6.2%
• 财务指标：
  • Sales (Bt): 359 million (1Q16), 355 million (4Q15), 337 million (1Q15)
  • Net Profit (Bt): 311 million (1Q16), 805 million (4Q15), 207 million (1Q15)
  • EPS (Bt): 0.18 (1Q16), 0.45 (4Q15), 0.12 (1Q15)
  • P/E Ratio: 10.9 (1Q16)
  • BVPS (Bt): 5.04 (1Q16)
  • P/B Ratio: 1.1 (1Q16)
  • Net Profit Margin: 86.60% (1Q16)
• 估值方法：采用DCF模型，WACC为9%，终端增长率为4%。
• 盈利趋势：
  • EBIT: 327 million (1Q16), 373 million (4Q15), 295 million (1Q15)
  • EAT: 257 million (1Q16), 107 million (4Q15), 253 million (1Q15)
  • 毛利率: 64.51% (1Q16)
  • 营业利润率: 50.67% (1Q16)
  • 净利润率: 86.60% (1Q16)
• 公司治理：SFD的反腐败指标为Level 5 (Extended)，反腐败政策扩展至商业伙伴、经销商和分销商。
• 行业分类：SFD属于Property & Construction行业，具体为Property Development子行业。
• 投资评级系统：
  • Total Return > +20%: Buy
  • Total Return +5% to +20%: Accumulate
  • Total Return -5% to +5%: Neutral
  • Total Return -5% to -20%: Reduce
  • Total Return < -20%: Sell

附加信息

• 分析师团队：
  • Frankie Wong: Editor
  • Louis Wong: Director
  • Zhang Jing: Research Analyst (Transportation and Automobiles)
  • Chen Xingyu: Director, Research Department (Mainland Financial)
  • Fan Guohe: Research Analyst (TMT)
  • Chen Geng: Research Analyst (Mainland Property)
• 联系方式：
  • Frankie Wong: Tel: (852) 2277 6765, Email: foreignstock@phillip.com.hk
  • Louis Wong: Tel: (852) 22776846, Email: louiswong@phillip.com.hk
  • Zhang Jing: Tel: (86) 21 51699400-103, Email: zhangjing@phillip.com.cn
  • Chen Xingyu: Tel: (86) 21 51699400-105, Email: chenxingyu@phillip.com.cn
  • Fan Guohe: Tel: (86) 21 51699400-110, Email: fanguohe@phillip.com.cn
  • Chen Geng: Tel: (86) 21 51699400-107, Email: chengeng@phillip.com.cn
• 免责声明：该报告由辉立证券（泰国）有限公司发布，基于海外分支机构分析师的原始资料，仅供参考，不构成投资建议。