20241014-铜冠金源期货-棕榈油周报_MPOB_报告累库超预期_棕榈油或震荡偏强运行_10页_885kb

brown oil weekly report please refer to the last page for disclaimer1/10 core views and strategies palm oil may oscillate upward on the whole due to the mpob report of accumulated inventory exceeding expectations in october 2024

last week the bmd palm oil main contract increased by 352 points closing at 4350 ringgit per ton with an 880% ascent the palm oil main contract rose by 278 points to 8846 yuan per ton a 324% increase soybean oil main contract added 118 points ending at 8266 yuan per ton with a 145% rise rapeseed oil main contract surged 128 points to 9596 yuan per ton recording a 135% gain the cbot soybean oil main contract was almost flat increasing by 002 points to 4333 cents per pound while the ice can rapeseed main contract rose by 155 points to 6258 canadian dollars per ton a 254% increase

the entire oil sector remained strong post-festival adjustments were mainly driven by a cooling macroeconomic sentiment which pulled down the prices of all commodities palm oil maintaining a strong trend amid multiple factors including supply disruptions from the middle east conflict and hurricanes which lifted crude oil prices the potential narrowing of interest rate cuts in the us suggesting resilient economic growth domestic policies have been releasing one after another providing an overall positive outlook despite the mpob report exceeding expectations on inventory accumulation entering the off-season export demand remains robust potentially slowing the accumulation pace recent heavy rainfall may also hinder harvest progress domestic palm oil inventory levels remain relatively low combined with limited future imports is forecasted to support palm oil prices tightly this is especially beneficial if it falls into storage the technical aspect shows limited room for retracement therefore recommended strategies are to hold long positions and buy dips

the recommended strategy is to maintain long positions and buy dips the key risks involve macroeconomic policies geopolitical tensions production volumes and exports domestic inventory conditions

overview of the market
during the previous week bmd palm oil main contract recorded a 880 increase from the festival period closing at 4350 ringgit per ton the palm oil main contract grew by 324 to 8846 yuan per ton soybean and rapeseed oil saw respective rises

the overall oil segment showed strength post-festival adjustments primarily affecting all commodities macroeconomic cooling drove these adjustments palm oil's fluctuation strength involved four major elements first the escalation of conflicts in the middle east and hurricanes disturbing supplies influenced crude oil prices upwards second the possibility of reduced interest rate cuts in the us might imply sustained economic vitality third中国政府 policy announcements collectively project a positive outlook although the mpob report showed unexpected inventory accumulation entering stock reserves the off-season context where export demand remains robust means inventories may decelerate soon heavy rain could impede harvests domestic palm oil inventory is still relatively low possibly under supporting influence from decreased future import arrivals from technical analysis limited price correction exists motivating a lower position strategy

strategies suggest maintaining long positions and buying dips at lower levels two factors influence palm oil prices supply side gradual entry into the off-season reduces output while export demand stays resilient domestic market has abundant supply of all oil types except palm oil where inventory is relatively low the project expects reduced imports which should sustain prices above-average macro climate temperatures driven by Middle East conflicts continue pushing prices up however the continuation requires monitoring the opec+ increase plan

industry news
malaysia's 2023/24 palm oil production season is expected to increase moderately due to a high yield phase although output slowed with the onset of the northeast monsoon predictions varied on the impact of coming rains meanwhile indonesia maintains its production expectations amid discussions on sustainability policies a recent policy shift in India involves raising import taxes on edible oils temporarily responding to market dynamics the indian government launched a plan aiming to double domestic edible oil output by 2030/31 through promoting high-yield varieties

charts accompanying the report analyze trends in prices and inventory levels showing mixed signals from lookahead weather patterns in southeast asia these reports please refer to the last page for disclaimer2/10