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Nickel Market Report 2023/06/03

Date: 2023/06/03
Source: 五矿期货研究中心
Analysts: 吴坤金、钟靖

Nickel Price Summary

• LME Cash/3M: $133/dmt (Contango Narrow)
• 俄镍升水: 5,150 RMB/dmt
• SHFE主力合约: 8,250 RMB/dmt

Supply & Demand Analysis

1. Supply:

   • Domestic Refining Nickel: High production growth driven by pure nickel smelter restarts (capacity utilization stable).
   • Import: Refined nickel imports decreased in Apr (30kt), while nickel sponge and ore imports increased (HS nickel imports at 67kt).
   • Inventory: Total domestic inventory rising due to elevated imports and domestic production.

2. Demand:

   • Stainless Steel: Output moderately improving but still below pre-pandemic levels.
   • Batteries: Growing demand in electric vehicle (EV) segment for nickel sulfate, though production still lagging.
   • Overall: Neutral demand outlook, hampered by sluggish economic recovery.

Key Drivers

1. Inventory Overhang: Accumulation due to high imports and domestic supply growth.
2. Demand Weakness: Economic challenges and weak terminal consumption offset high supply.
3. Short-term Catalysts: Domestic seasonal demand pickup and high-cost producer margins for support.

Trading Strategy

• Positioning: Bearish short-term, neutral medium-term outlook.
• Recommendation: Hedging-focused, single-side buy/short not advised.

Data Highlights

• Apr 2023 Production:
  • Refined Nickel: ~176kt
  • Nickel Sponge: ~284kt
  • Stainless Steel: ~124kt
• Imports: Refined Nickel: 30kt, Nickel Sponge: 67kt
• Inventory: LME decreased 11kt, SHFE increased 3,100t

Disclaimer: Analysis is for reference only; no investment advice provided.