2024-12-22-世界经济论坛-世界经济论坛净零排放行业追踪2024_156页_20mb

报告摘要

Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2024 Summary

Core Content

The Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2024 evaluates the progress of eight hard-to-abate sectors—steel, cement, aluminium, primary chemicals, oil and gas, aviation, shipping, and trucking—towards achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. These sectors account for approximately 40% of global GHG emissions and contribute to 30% of global GDP, highlighting their economic importance. The report emphasizes the need for a system-wide approach rather than isolated point solutions to effectively transition to net-zero.

Main Findings

Emissions Trends

The sectors collectively contributed to 40% of direct CO₂e emissions in 2023.
Between 2019 and 2023, the average emissions intensity decreased by 4.1%, with a 1.2% drop in 2022-2023.
Five out of eight sectors saw reduced emissions intensity in 2022-2023: aluminium, cement, chemicals, aviation, and trucking.
Aviation emissions declined the most (8.4%) between 2019 and 2023, while trucking emissions increased by 6.2%.
In 2022-2023, aviation emissions rose by 17.6%, and oil and gas emissions dropped by 6.4%.

Demand and Energy Intensity

Overall demand for these sectors increased by 9.2% between 2019 and 2023, with heavy industry sectors driving the growth.
Cement demand declined due to reduced production in China, which accounts for half of global cement production.
Energy intensity decreased by 3.2% in 2022 across the sectors, 1.6 times more than the global average.
The average energy intensity dropped by 3.9% from 2019 to 2022, mainly due to primary chemicals, trucking, and aluminium.
Steel saw an increase in energy intensity due to higher production in China, which relies more on primary production processes.

Energy Mix

Fossil fuels still account for 90% of the energy mix in these sectors on average, compared to 81% globally.
Aluminium and steel have started to replace coal with electricity for heat generation, and aluminium is also using nuclear energy.
Heavy transport sectors have not yet significantly replaced fuel oil with alternative fuels, though trucking has seen some biofuel adoption.

Key Priorities for Transition

Technology

Technology readiness has improved due to better economics and adoption.
Disruptive technologies such as CCUS, hydrogen, and new production pathways are still not commercially viable, and R&D investments are needed to accelerate their development.
Generative AI has shown potential to improve capital efficiency by 5-7%, reducing capital requirements by $1.5–2 trillion for the net-zero transition.
However, increased AI use may raise electricity demand, potentially competing with hard-to-abate sectors for low-carbon power.

Infrastructure

Infrastructure development has been slow, particularly for hydrogen and CCUS, which are critical for decarbonization.
These sectors are expected to account for 70% and 55% of the total hydrogen and CCUS capacity needed by 2050, respectively.
Clean power infrastructure has seen some progress, but hydrogen and CCUS remain underdeveloped.

Demand

Demand readiness has shown limited progress due to high green premiums, unclear customer willingness to pay, and lack of carbon threshold standards.
The price of net-zero base material products is estimated to increase by 40–70%.

Capital

Capital readiness has remained stagnant due to insufficient returns on clean investments.
$30 trillion in additional capital is required by 2050, with $17 trillion needed for clean energy infrastructure.
The sectors must increase investments in retrofitting existing assets and building climate-compatible infrastructure.

Policy

Policy support has been fragmented, with limited cross-regional collaboration.
There are 75 carbon-pricing instruments in operation globally, covering 24% of emissions.
Trade restrictions and tariffs on green products are increasing green premiums.
Stronger incentives are needed to align policy, industry, and market efforts.

Conclusion

The report highlights that while progress has been made, the current pace is insufficient to meet net-zero goals. A system-wide, partnership-based approach is necessary to address the complex challenges of technological, economic, and political nature. Public-private collaboration and cross-sector alignment are critical to overcome cost and risk hurdles and scale low-emission solutions.

Key Takeaways

The energy transition is accelerating in some areas but still insufficient to meet net-zero targets.
$30 trillion in capital is required by 2050, with $17 trillion allocated to clean energy infrastructure.
Technology, infrastructure, demand, capital, and policy are the five key readiness dimensions.
AI and data transparency are emerging as key enablers for emissions tracking and capital efficiency.
Geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions are hindering progress by increasing costs and reducing market access.