世界经济论坛-2024年净零行业跟踪报告（英）-2024.12-156页_20mb

This report, the third edition of the Net-Zero Industry Tracker, provides a comprehensive assessment of progress toward net-zero emissions in eight hard-to-abate sectors: aviation, shipping, trucking, steel, cement, aluminum, primary chemicals, and oil and gas. Despite reporting a slight reduction in average emissions intensity since 2013 (4.1% reduction), current progress falls significantly short of net-zero ambitions by 2050. Key findings and priorities include:

Technology & Infrastructure

• Challenges: Most sectors rely heavily on fossil fuels (90% across industries reported), limiting immediate decarbonization. CCUS, hydrogen, and clean power deployment lag significantly.
• Opportunities: Renewable energy, artificial intelligence (enhancing efficiency and emissions tracking), and bioenergy offer pathways, though mature technologies like electrification and improved energy efficiency are accelerating. Readiness scores vary; for example, aluminum showed improvement due to hydrogen-electric trucks advancements.

Demand & Readiness

• Green Premiums: High barriers exist due to B2B cost premiums (e.g., cement at 50-70%, steel at 40%) limiting market uptake.
• Standards & Transparency: Lack of unified low-emission product definitions hinders demand scaling. Initiatives like IATA's TrackZero and industrial standards aim to improve this.

Capital Investment

• Scale: An estimated $30T cumulative investment (~$900B annually) is needed by 2050, with most required from broader ecosystems (including infrastructure deployment).
• Funding Mechanisms: Green bonds, carbon pricing, and blended finance are critical, especially for developing economies.

Policy & Collaboration

• Fragmented Landscape: Fragmented policies, tariffs (e.g., CBAM), and geopolitical tensions hinder progress. Urgent need for harmonized global standards and incentives.
• Key Initiatives: The Mission Possible Partnership (MPP) and First Movers Coalition (FMC) promote industry collaboration, with milestones set for technology scaling and demand aggregation.

In conclusion, while advancements exist, accelerated cross-sector collaboration, massive infrastructure investment, and supportive policy frameworks are essential to achieve net-zero goals by 2050. Current barriers in technology adoption, demand scaling, finance, and policy must be overcome through coordinated stakeholder action.