2024年净零行业追踪报告_156页_6mb

Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2024 Summary

Core Content

The Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2024 provides a comprehensive assessment of the progress and challenges faced by eight hard-to-abate sectors in transitioning to net-zero emissions by 2050. These sectors include steel, cement, aluminium, primary chemicals, oil and gas, aviation, shipping, and trucking, which collectively account for around 40% of global GHG emissions and 30% of global GDP. The report highlights the need for a system-wide, partnership-based approach rather than isolated point solutions to achieve the net-zero goals.

Main Findings

Emissions Trends

• Absolute emissions have decreased slightly in the last year (2022–2023), with a 0.9% reduction.
• Emissions intensity has improved by 4.1% from 2019 to 2023, with a 1.2% drop in the last year.
• Five out of eight sectors (aluminium, cement, chemicals, aviation, and trucking) reduced emissions intensity in 2022–2023.
• Energy intensity decreased by 3.2% in 2022, 1.6 times more than the global average.

Investment Needs

• An estimated $30 trillion in additional capital is required by 2050 for the sectors in scope.
• 57% of this investment must come from external sources, such as clean energy infrastructure.
• Retrofitting existing assets and building new climate-compatible assets are critical for capital deployment.

Key Challenges

• High green premiums and uncertainty around customer willingness to pay are major barriers to scaling clean demand.
• Limited infrastructure for clean power, hydrogen, and CCUS remains a key obstacle.
• High interest rates and competitive profit margins reduce the ability of sectors to absorb the costs of transitioning to low-emission technologies.
• Geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions have increased the cost of green products and reduced the incentive for sustainable investment.

Cross-Sector Readiness

The report evaluates the readiness of sectors across five dimensions:

1. Technology: Improved due to better economics and adoption, but nearly half of required emissions reductions depend on non-commercially viable technologies.
2. Infrastructure: Development has been slow, especially for hydrogen and CCUS, which are expected to account for 70% and 55% of total required capacity by 2050, respectively.
3. Demand: Limited progress due to high green premiums, lack of clarity on customer willingness to pay, and limited adoption of carbon threshold standards.
4. Capital: Readiness scores have remained stagnant due to insufficient returns on clean investments.
5. Policy: Support is fragmented, with 75 carbon-pricing instruments covering only 24% of global emissions, and lack of cross-regional collaboration.

Role of AI and Data

• Artificial Intelligence (AI) is emerging as a key enabler, improving capital efficiency by 5–7% and reducing the capital requirements for net-zero transition by $1.5–2 trillion.
• Data collection and transparency are critical for accurate emissions tracking and reporting.
• Product-level reporting and standardized carbon thresholds are essential to build trust and drive market demand for low-emission products.

Call to Action

• A system-wide approach is necessary to align supply and demand, reduce cost and risk, and accelerate progress.
• Public-private collaboration is essential, especially with global initiatives like the Clean Energy Ministerial, G20, First Movers Coalition, and Mission Possible Partnership.
• Policy reforms are needed to provide stronger incentives for low-emission production and to reduce the cost burden on green products.

Key Priorities

• Accelerate R&D in CCUS, hydrogen, and new production pathways.
• Develop clean infrastructure for power, fuels, and storage.
• Enhance transparency and standardize carbon thresholds.
• Improve data collection and reporting to enable more accurate emissions tracking.
• Promote cross-regional policy alignment and reduce trade barriers that hinder the adoption of green technologies.

Conclusion

While progress has been made in emissions reduction and technology adoption, the pace remains insufficient to meet net-zero targets. The energy transition in hard-to-abate sectors requires collaboration, investment, and policy support to overcome the physical, economic, and political challenges. A system-wide approach is necessary to drive the required transformation and ensure sustainable development.