世界经济论坛净零排放行业追踪2024-156页_20mb

报告摘要

Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2024 Summary

Core Content

The Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2024 provides a comprehensive assessment of progress toward net-zero emissions in eight hard-to-abate sectors: steel, cement, aluminium, primary chemicals, oil and gas, aviation, shipping, and trucking. These sectors collectively account for around 40% of global Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions and are vital to the global economy, with heavy industry alone contributing 30% of global GDP.

The report highlights the need for a system-wide approach rather than point solutions to achieve net-zero by 2050. It outlines key dimensions of readiness—technology, infrastructure, demand, capital, and policy—along with their scores and progress. The findings emphasize that while some progress has been made, the pace is still insufficient to meet net-zero goals.

Main Findings

Emissions Trends

Absolute emissions in the eight sectors decreased by 0.9% from 2022 to 2023, compared to a 1.3% increase in global energy-related emissions.
From 2019 to 2023, emissions intensity decreased by 4.1%, with an accelerated 1.2% drop in the last year.
Five sectors—aluminium, cement, chemicals, aviation, and trucking—showed improved emissions intensity in 2022–2023.
Energy intensity decreased by 3.2% in 2022, 1.6 times more than the global average.

Investment Needs

An estimated $30 trillion in additional capital is required by 2050 to achieve net-zero in these sectors.
57% of this investment must come from external sources, particularly for clean power, hydrogen, and CCUS infrastructure.
Capital readiness remains stagnant due to limited returns on clean investments, especially in emerging and developing countries.

Technological and Economic Challenges

Technology readiness has improved due to better economics and adoption, but nearly half of the required emissions reductions still depend on non-commercially viable technologies.
R&D investments in CCUS, new production pathways, and hydrogen need to be accelerated.
AI is emerging as a key enabler, with potential to improve capital efficiency by 5–7% and reduce capital requirements by $1.5–2 trillion.
However, increased AI use may raise electricity demand, potentially competing for low-carbon power.

Demand and Policy Barriers

Demand readiness has seen limited progress due to high green premiums, uncertainty in customer willingness to pay, and lack of carbon threshold standards.
Green premium costs for net-zero base materials are estimated to increase by 40–70%.
Policy support is fragmented, with only 24% of global emissions covered by carbon-pricing instruments.
Protectionist policies, such as tariffs on green products, are increasing the cost of low-emission technologies and hindering global trade.

Key Priorities

System-wide collaboration across stakeholders to drive progress.
Accelerated investment in clean power, hydrogen, and CCUS infrastructure.
Enhanced data strategies and transparent emissions reporting.
Standardized carbon thresholds and product-level reporting.
Stronger policy incentives to align with net-zero goals.

Sector-Specific Insights

Aviation: Emissions dropped by 8.4% from 2019 to 2023, but saw a 17.6% increase in 2022–2023.
Shipping: Emissions increased in 2022–2023, with slow progress on alternative fuels.
Trucking: Emissions decreased by 6.2% in 2019–2023, with some progress in electrification.
Steel: Emissions intensity increased due to higher production in China, which relies on primary processes.
Cement: Emissions decreased due to reduced production in China.
Aluminium: Emissions intensity dropped by 13.6% in 2019–2023, with recycling and reuse playing a key role.
Primary chemicals: Emissions intensity dropped by 13.7% in 2019–2023 due to more efficient production processes.
Oil and gas: Emissions decreased by 6.4% in 2022–2023, showing some progress in decarbonization.

Conclusion

The Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2024 underscores the urgent need for faster progress in hard-to-abate sectors. While some improvements have been made in emissions and energy efficiency, the current pace is insufficient to meet net-zero targets. The report calls for greater collaboration, system-wide approaches, and policy alignment to overcome economic, technological, and political barriers. With $30 trillion in investment needed by 2050, the transition to clean energy and low-emission technologies must be accelerated to ensure global sustainability.

Key Takeaways

The eight hard-to-abate sectors are critical to the global economy and GHG emissions.
System-wide collaboration is essential for achieving net-zero.
Technology, infrastructure, demand, capital, and policy readiness scores are key indicators.
AI can enhance efficiency and reduce capital needs, but may increase electricity demand.
Global trade fragmentation and protectionism are hindering the transition.
$30 trillion in investment is needed by 2050, with 57% coming from external sources.