20140505-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_567kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary (05 May 2014)
Core Content Overview
This document provides an overview of regional oil and gas market movements and key company updates as of early May 2014. It includes price changes for various crude oils, natural gas, and other energy-related products, along with company-specific news and valuation comparisons.
Key Market Movements
- Crude Oil (Brent): Increased by 0.7% over the past day, closing at $108.56/bbl.
- Crude Oil (WTI): Rose by 0.3%, ending at $99.76/bbl.
- Natural Gas (NYMEX Henry Hub): Fell by 0.7%, closing at $4.69/MMBtu.
- Gold: Gained 1.2%, closing at $1,299.70/Oz.
- USD-CNY: Remained stable at 6.26.
News Headlines
China
- Private Oil Product Wholesalers' Inventories: Increased in 2H April by 8,700 tonnes to 318,500 tonnes.
- Gasoline inventories rose by 2.83% to 167,400 tonnes.
- Gasoil stocks increased by 2.79% to 151,000 tonnes.
- PetroChina: Hiked its May naphtha ex-refinery price by 1.6% to CNY6,125/tonne.
South Korea
- Kogas: Sold 5% stake in LNG Canada to Shell to reduce debt, reducing its stake to 15%.
Malaysia
- Air Products: Secured a second contract for Petronas FLNG project.
- Petronas Gas: Maintains a hold rating with a target price of $23.50.
- Petronas Gas: Reports a hold rating with a target price of $23.70.
Oman
- Petrogas: Plans to boost domestic production with over 100 wells in the pipeline, with 3% YoY increase in net production to 31,160 bdp in 2013.
Libya
- OMV: Ships more oil out of Libya using a Turkish tanker.
Japan
- JX Nippon Oil & Energy: Settled May benzene ACP at USD1,268/mt CFR, up by USD3/mt from April.
- JX Holding: Maintains a NR rating with a price of $534.00.
Valuation Comparison (Asia)
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price 02-May | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD b) | 90D T/O (USD m) | P/E (2013) | P/E (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2013) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | RoE % | P/B (X) | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | NR | 8.94 | NR | 218.9 | 99.7 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 11.8 | 1.1 | 4.5 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | NR | 6.84 | NR | 95.7 | 119.1 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 12.2 | 1.1 | 4.4 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | NR | 12.74 | NR | 73.4 | 112.0 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 17.3 | 1.3 | 4.5 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 329.30 | NR | 46.9 | 22.4 | 11.6 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 16.8 | 1.8 | 2.9 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 928.10 | NR | 50.0 | 54.9 | 13.1 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 8.7 | 11.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | buy | 335.00 | 443.00 | 10.6 | 15.4 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 25.1 | 1.3 | 3.4 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 462.60 | NR | 5.6 | 11.3 | 17.8 | 15.9 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 11.5 | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| HPLC | HPLC IN | NR | 329.45 | NR | 1.9 | 7.5 | 22.3 | 12.1 | 12.8 | 10.6 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 2.6 |
| Petronas Gas | PTG MK | hold | 23.70 | 23.50 | 14.4 | 4.3 | 22.5 | 28.2 | 17.6 | 15.4 | 21.4 | 4.6 | 2.3 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | buy | 12.32 | 15.90 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 27.4 | 15.4 | 14.2 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Phoenix Petroleum Philippines | PNX PM | buy | 6.26 | 7.22 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 14.2 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 12.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| JX Holding | 5020 JT | NR | 534.00 | NR | 13.0 | 62.3 | 8.3 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 11.3 | 8.7 | 0.7 | 3.0 |
| Showa Shell | 5002 JT | NR | 1,039.00 | NR | 3.8 | 15.4 | 6.5 | 11.8 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 21.9 | 1.3 | 3.5 |
| TenonGeneral | 5012 JT | NR | 965.00 | NR | 5.3 | 11.9 | 15.4 | 32.2 | 9.2 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 1.2 | 3.7 |
| Idemitsu | 5019 JT | NR | 2,238.00 | NR | 3.5 | 8.8 | 7.1 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 0.5 | 2.2 |
| Cosmo | 5007 JT | NR | 196.00 | NR | 1.6 | 6.0 | n.a. | 39.3 | 10.4 | 13.6 | -31.4 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
Key Insights
- Market Trends: Brent and WTI crude oils showed slight increases, while natural gas and some other products saw declines.
- Company Actions: Kogas sold a stake in LNG Canada to Shell to reduce debt; TSMC will suspend production for maintenance.
- Production and Inventory: China's private oil product inventories rose; Oman's Petrogas plans to increase domestic production.
- Valuation: The valuation comparison includes multiple metrics such as P/E, EV/EBITDA, and P/B, with some companies showing positive growth in earnings and returns.
- Investor Ratings: Some companies are rated as "buy" or "sell", with target prices and market capitalization details provided.
Summary
The document highlights recent movements in regional oil and gas prices and updates on major companies in the sector. Key developments include inventory changes in China, strategic equity sales by Kogas, maintenance shutdowns by TSMC, and production goals by Oman's Petrogas. Valuation data for several Asian companies is provided, showing varying performance across different metrics. Analysts from Maybank Kim Eng and Bloomberg are involved in providing ratings and forecasts, offering insights into market dynamics and investment opportunities.
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