期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-2015number3_17页_6mb

NBER Reporter Summary - 2015 Number 3

Core Content

The NBER Reporter is a quarterly publication that highlights recent economic research conducted by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The issue includes several studies and analyses on labor market dynamics, corporate liquidity, student borrowing, and creativity in economic history. This summary focuses on the 2015 Martin Feldstein Lecture by Alan B. Krueger, which examines the tightness of the U.S. labor market, particularly in relation to long-term unemployment and wage growth.

Main Topics and Key Findings

1. Labor Market Tightness and Long-Term Unemployment

• U-6 Measure: While U-6 (a broader measure of labor slack) is elevated due to part-time workers preferring full-time jobs, the average work week has rebounded, suggesting that labor hours are returning to normal.
• Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate dropped from 10% in 2009 to 5.3% in 2015, representing real progress in labor market recovery.
• Long-Term Unemployment Trends:
  • The share of unemployed workers who have been jobless for more than six months fell from a record high of 45% in 2010 to around 25% in 2015.
  • However, the employment-to-population ratio has not recovered as much, indicating a structural decline in labor force participation.

2. Labor Force Participation Decline

• The labor force participation rate is nearly 5 percentage points below its pre-recession peak.
• Demographic Factors: About half of the 15-year decline in labor force participation is due to predictable demographic changes, especially the aging of the Baby Boom generation.
• Cyclical Factors: The remaining decline is likely due to cyclical factors, particularly the increasing discouragement of long-term unemployed workers.
• CPS Data: The labor force exit rate for long-term unemployed workers is unrelated to the business cycle, suggesting a long-term trend rather than a temporary downturn.

3. Job Finding Rates

• Short-Term Unemployed: Job finding rates are higher and more cyclical for short-term unemployed workers.
• Long-Term Unemployed: The job finding rate for long-term unemployed workers is lower and less responsive to the business cycle, indicating a deeper disengagement from the labor market.

4. Impact of Long-Term Unemployment

• Long-term unemployment negatively affects mental health, social isolation, and human capital.
• Studies show that employers discriminate against long-term unemployed workers, at least statistically, which exacerbates the issue.

5. Beveridge Curve Analysis

• The Beveridge curve, which relates job openings to the unemployment rate, tends to shift outward during recessions.
• During the Great Recession, the curve shifted outward, and the long-term unemployed contributed significantly to this shift.
• A matching model was used to analyze the behavior of the long-term unemployed and how it affects the Beveridge curve. The model suggests that the long-term unemployed are more likely to exit the labor force than to find jobs, contributing to the shift in the curve.

6. Counterfactual Analyses

• If the labor force exit rate for the long-term unemployed had remained constant at 2010 levels, the share of long-term unemployment would have declined by about half.
• If the job finding rate had remained at 2010 levels, it would have accounted for only 10% of the decline in long-term unemployment.
• The unemployment rate decline since 2010 is partially attributed to the rise in labor force withdrawal rates.

7. Wage Growth and the Phillips Curve

• Phillips Curve: The relationship between inflation and unemployment is captured by the Phillips curve, which is used to analyze real wage growth.
• Real Wage Growth: Real wage growth has been strong since 2015, with the Employment Cost Index (ECI) indicating a 2.8% nominal increase and 1.5% real growth over the period.
• Short-Term vs. Long-Term Unemployment: Short-term unemployment has a stronger impact on wage growth than long-term unemployment.
• Wage Phillips Curve: Krueger’s analysis suggests that the U-3 unemployment rate may understate labor market tightness, as it does not fully capture the impact of long-term unemployment on wage dynamics.

Key Information

• Alan B. Krueger discusses the labor market dynamics, focusing on the long-term unemployed and their impact on labor force participation and wage growth.
• The Beveridge Curve has shifted outward during the Great Recession, and this shift is attributed to the behavior of the long-term unemployed.
• Job finding rates for the long-term unemployed are low and unresponsive to the business cycle.
• Wage growth has been robust, especially when considering real wage growth and the Employment Cost Index.
• Policy Implications: Public policy should focus on helping the long-term unemployed re-enter the workforce, as their disengagement from the labor market is a significant factor in the labor market’s current state.

Conclusion

Alan B. Krueger’s lecture highlights the complex relationship between labor market tightness, long-term unemployment, and wage growth. He argues that while the unemployment rate has improved, the underlying structural issues in labor force participation and the low job finding rates for long-term unemployed workers remain significant. The Beveridge Curve and Phillips Curve analyses suggest that the labor market is not as tight as the U-3 unemployment rate might indicate, and that policy interventions are necessary to address the long-term unemployed and their impact on the broader economy.