20240513-财信证券-可转债周报_正股和估值共同支撑转债修复_10页_960kb

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Securities Research Report: May 13, 2024

Stock and Valuation Jointly Support Convertible Bond Recovery

Market Overview

Indices Movement: The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.6% week-over-week to 31,545.5 points, while the China Convertible Bond Index increased by 193% to 40,248 points during the week ending on May 10.
Bond Sector: Government bonds experienced slight adjustments, though overall market sentiment remains cautious.

Secondary Market Analysis

Convertible Bond Performance: The secondary market saw a strong recovery, driven by rising valuations and equity market improvements. The median and arithmetic average prices for convertibles rose significantly, and trading volume increased.
Industry Leaders: Sectors such as Healthcare, Electrical Equipment, and Environmental Protection were the top performers.
Top/Bottom Performing Bonds: The top five performers included deeply undervalued and investment-grade bonds, while the bottom performers showed wide losses in the sector.

Key Findings

Support for Recovery: Higher pricing and improved corporate fundamentals underpinned the recent bounce in convertible bonds.
Strategic Outlook: The recommendation remains to adopt a two-sided investment strategy: balancing high-quality debt bonds with growth-oriented stocks.

Core Recommendations

High-Quality Debt: Focus on low-yield debt with strong fundamentals.
Sector Focused: Look into AI-themed plays, sustainability projects, and export-linked companies expected to benefit from cyclical demand.
Equity-Urrented Bonds: Consider waiting to see the result of equity price adjustments.

Risk Highlights

Valuation adjustments for bonds may reduce downside during volatile equity markets.
Residential stimulation policies require monitoring for any unexpected impacts on bond valuations.

Forward Outlook

The market stabilization may lead to sustained price increases in convertible bonds, but periodic sector swings remain a factor. Monitoring indicators like exchange rates, treasury yields, PPI and inflation is crucial.

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