2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Tunisia_First_Review_Under_the_Extended_Fund_Facility_Request_for_Waivers_of_NonObservance_of_Performance_Criteria_and_Rephasing_of_Access_93页_3mb

报告摘要

Tunisia: IMF Country Report No. 17/203 Summary

Core Content

This document outlines the IMF's First Review Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) with Tunisia, including a Press Release, Staff Report, and Statement by the Executive Director. It covers the economic and financial situation of Tunisia, the progress made in implementing reforms, and the recommendations from the IMF staff for continued support and adjustments to the program.

Main Points

1. IMF Arrangement and Review Outcome

The four-year EFF arrangement was approved in May 2016, with a total amount of SDR 2.045625 billion (about US$2.83 billion).
The first review was completed on June 12, 2017, allowing Tunisia to draw SDR 227.2917 million (about US$314.4 million), bringing total disbursements to SDR 454.5837 million (about US$628.8 million).
The Executive Board approved the request for waivers of non-observance of performance criteria on Net International Reserves (NIR), Net Domestic Assets (NDA), and the primary fiscal deficit.
The remaining access was rephased into six semi-annual installments.

2. Economic Objectives

The reform program aims to:
- Reduce the fiscal deficit to stabilize public debt below 70 percent of GDP by 2020.
- Raise investment and social spending.
- Maintain inflation below 4 percent through monetary tightening and exchange rate flexibility.
- Ensure pension sustainability and better protect vulnerable households.
- Accelerate governance reforms and foster private sector-led, job-creating growth.

3. Program Performance

Most Quantitative Performance Criteria (QPCs) for end-December 2016 were missed.
The primary fiscal deficit was missed due to revenue shortfalls in VAT and non-tax receipts.
Structural Benchmarks (SBs) for June 2016–March 2017 were delayed, but most were completed by the end of 2017.
The new Large Taxpayers Unit and 2018 tax package are expected to improve tax fairness and revenue collection.

4. Key Economic Indicators (2015–2018)

Indicator	2015	2016	2017	2018
Real GDP growth (percent)	1.1	2.0	3.0	2.3
GDP deflator (percent)	3.6	5.7	5.3	4.2
Consumer price index (CPI), average	4.9	3.7	4.5	4.4
Consumer price index (CPI), end	4.1	4.2	3.9	4.1
Gross national savings (percent of GDP)	12.5	13.5	15.3	13.6
Gross investment (percent of GDP)	21.4	22.5	22.3	23.2
Central government overall balance (percent of GDP)	-5.3	-5.9	-3.5	-5.4
Central government debt (percent of GDP)	57.2	62.9	54.5	69.1
Foreign direct investment (percent of GDP)	2.6	2.1	2.0	2.8
Terms of trade (deterioration)	3.3	2.3	-1.5	-0.9
Gross official reserves (US$ billions)	7.4	5.9	7.3	8.2
Reserves in months of next year’s imports	4.1	3.4	4.3	4.6

5. Challenges and Risks

Fiscal and external deficits remain high, with public debt reaching 63 percent of GDP in 2016, compared to a projected 55 percent at the start of the program.
Inflation was contained below 4 percent in 2016 due to weak growth and favorable agricultural conditions, but core inflation rose beyond 5 percent in March 2017 due to exchange rate depreciation and wage increases.
Exchange rate depreciation and low growth have worsened public debt ratios.
Security risks persist, especially in the context of Middle Eastern conflicts and domestic political instability.
Low private investment and high informal economic activity continue to challenge growth and development.

6. Policy Recommendations

Continued fiscal consolidation is needed, with a focus on implementing the 2018 tax package and the Large Taxpayers Unit.
Monetary policy tightening and greater exchange rate flexibility will help contain inflation and preserve international reserves.
Civil service reform and reforms to public enterprises are essential for improving efficiency and reducing the wage bill.
Reforms to improve governance and the business environment, such as the establishment of the high anti-corruption authority, are crucial for inclusive growth.
Enhancing the operation and transparency of the foreign exchange market is recommended through the FX auction mechanism.

Key Information

Fiscal Deficit: Increased in 2016 due to revenue shortfalls and wage increases, reaching 5.9 percent of GDP.
Public Debt: Rose to 63 percent of GDP in 2016, higher than the initial target of 55 percent.
Inflation: Contained below 4 percent in 2016, but core inflation exceeded 5 percent in March 2017.
Exchange Rate: The dinar depreciated by 18 percent in nominal effective terms between May 2016 and April 2017.
Reserves: Declined to US$5.8 billion in March 2017, covering 3.4 months of imports.
Growth Outlook: Projected to increase to 2.3 percent in 2017 and 3.0 percent in 2018, supported by tourism and phosphates.
Program Modality: The remaining access is rephased into six semi-annual installments, and waivers are granted for non-observance of performance criteria.

Conclusion

The IMF staff concluded that Tunisia's program performance had improved, and waivers and rephasing of access were justified. Continued policy implementation and reforms are necessary to achieve macroeconomic stability, inclusive growth, and debt sustainability. The fragile socio-political environment and external risks remain significant challenges, requiring sustained efforts from the authorities and the IMF's support.