2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Moldova_First_Reviews_Under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_and_Extended_Fund_Facility_Arrangements_and_Request_for_Modification_of_Performance_Criteria_59页_1003kb

Summary of IMF Country Report No. 17/102: Republic of Moldova

Core Content

The IMF has completed the First Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangements for the Republic of Moldova, which were approved on November 7, 2016, for a total of SDR 129.4 million (about US$178.7 million). The review has made available SDR 15.7 million (about US$21.5 million) to the Moldovan authorities. The program is broadly on track, with strong country ownership and support from policymakers, although significant risks remain.

Main Points

Economic Recovery and Performance

• The Moldovan economy has started to recover following a year of political turbulence.
• In 2016, GDP growth reached 4.1%, driven by strong agricultural performance, private consumption, and exports.
• Inflation decelerated sharply from 13.5% in 2015 to 2.4% in 2016, returning to the target range.
• Inflation is expected to rise to 6.5% by the end of 2017 due to increased domestic and external demand, administered price adjustments, and higher international food and oil prices.
• The current account deficit is projected to widen to 5% of GDP in 2017, but it is expected to stabilize around 5.5% of GDP in the medium term.

Financial Sector

• The financial sector remains a key focus of the program.
• Diagnostics of the three largest banks are nearing completion.
• The National Bank of Moldova (NBM) has conducted onsite inspections of two large banks, revealing mixed results in the implementation of remedial action plans.
• Identification of Ultimate Beneficial Owners (UBOs) and related parties is a major challenge, with the December structural benchmark not met.
• NBM has imposed financial penalties and warned of blocking shares if UBOs cannot be certified.
• The authorities are working to improve bank governance and transparency, including through new regulations and procedures.

Monetary Policy

• Monetary policy continues to focus on price stability and a flexible exchange rate regime.
• The NBM has maintained its inflation targeting framework, with a revised quarterly path due to significant supply-side factors.
• The NBM is prepared to tighten monetary policy if inflation rises faster than projected.
• The bank's policy rate was reduced by 10.5 percentage points in 2016, but lending rates only fell by 4 percentage points, leading to excess liquidity.
• NBM is focusing on smoothing excess volatility in the foreign exchange market and has adopted measures to improve liquidity management.

Fiscal Policy

• The 2016 fiscal outturn was within program targets, with an augmented cash deficit of 2.1% of GDP.
• The 2017 budget targets an augmented general government deficit of 3.7% of GDP, consistent with program commitments.
• Priority actions include strengthening revenues and improving the efficiency and prioritization of spending.
• Resources should be directed toward capital expenditure and targeted social assistance.
• Fiscal structural reforms are expected to enhance fiscal management over the medium term.

Structural Reforms

• The authorities are working on eliminating accumulated debts in the energy sector and improving tariff-setting methodology.
• Efforts to improve transparency in the energy sector are ongoing.
• The poverty reduction strategy is being assessed with the aim of updating it and aligning it with the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

Key Information

• Program Status: The program is broadly on track, with strong country ownership and commitment to sound economic management.
• Financial Sector Reforms: Ongoing efforts include improving bank governance, identifying UBOs, and addressing related-party exposures.
• Monetary Policy: NBM is focused on inflation targeting and maintaining a flexible exchange rate, while being prepared to tighten policy if needed.
• Fiscal Policy: The 2017 budget aligns with program targets, with a focus on revenue enhancement and efficient spending.
• Outlook and Risks: The outlook for growth is positive at 4.5% in 2017, but risks remain large, including political divisions and rising populism.
• Support Measures: The program includes a range of measures to improve financial stability, including enhanced regulatory and supervisory frameworks, and the adoption of a new securities settlement and registry infrastructure.

Documents Included

• Press Release
• Staff Report
• Letter of Intent
• Supplementary Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies
• Technical Memorandum of Understanding
• Economic Development Document

Program Implementation

• The program includes a range of performance criteria and structural benchmarks.
• The completion of the First Review allows for the disbursement of SDR 15.7 million.
• The authorities are committed to the program and have taken steps to implement reforms, including the restructuring of the financial system and the enhancement of fiscal sustainability.

Conclusion

The IMF report highlights the progress made by the Republic of Moldova in recovering from recent economic and political challenges, with a strong commitment to financial sector reforms, monetary stability, and fiscal sustainability. While the program is on track, continued implementation of reforms and management of risks are essential for sustained growth and poverty reduction.