2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Djibouti_Fourth_Review_Under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_Arrangement_and_Request_for_Waivers_of_Nonobservance_of_Performance_Criteria_Staff_Report_and_Press_Release_51页_785kb

Djibouti: Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria

Core Content

This document outlines the Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and the request for waivers of nonobservance of performance criteria by the Djibouti authorities. It includes the Staff Report and a Press Release summarizing the Executive Board's views. The report discusses Djibouti's economic developments, program performance, policy discussions, and risks associated with the ECF program.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Political Context

• President Guelleh was re-elected for a third term in April 2011 after a controversial election process.
• The opposition initially boycotted the elections due to anti-government protests but later participated.
• The new government includes new ministers with backgrounds in public administration and business, including the Minister of Finance.

2. Economic Developments

• Real GDP growth in 2010 was 3.5%, down from 5% in 2009, due to port transshipment suspension, weak FDI, and the impact of the Ethiopian birr devaluation.
• Inflation is projected to rise from 4% in 2010 to nearly 9% in 2011, driven by international food and oil prices, but is expected to decline to below 2% in 2012.
• Current account deficit is expected to worsen in 2011 to over 10% of GDP, but international reserves are projected to increase to over $240 million, supported by capital inflows and ECF disbursements.

3. Program Performance

• The ECF program is broadly on track, with all quantitative performance criteria for end-December 2010 met.
• However, the authorities did not observe the continuous performance criteria on non-accumulation of domestic and external arrears due to:
  • Delayed wage and pension payments.
  • Payment of external debt service in May for debts due in March.
• Structural benchmarks were met, except for the customs code approval (approved in June) and the web posting of fiscal reports (delayed due to election-related disruptions).

4. Policy Discussions

A. Employment and Input Costs

• Unemployment is a major issue, with rates significantly higher than regional averages.
• Youth unemployment is particularly high, prompting the government to invest in professional education and microfinance programs to support new graduates.
• Input cost reduction is a priority, especially for energy and water.
  • The interconnection with Ethiopia's electrical grid is now operational, helping EDD reduce losses.
  • Plans to build a thermal power station and expand desalinization capacity are underway.

B. Fiscal Issues

• The fiscal target for 2011 is a 0.4% surplus, compared to a 0.1% deficit in the original program.
• The surplus is necessary to pay domestic arrears and lower external financing.
• Subsidies on food and fuel are expected to rise to 0.8–0.9% of GDP, up from 0.5% in 2009.
  • Food subsidies include tax exemptions on basic food items and agricultural land leasing in Ethiopia and Sudan.
  • Fuel subsidies were stabilized to ensure public transportation affordability.
• The government is committed to improving transparency of subsidies and will attach the farm program budget to future budget laws.

C. Public Debt

• External public debt is projected to fall from 56% to 53% of GDP by end-2011.
• Debt sustainability remains a concern, and the government plans to prioritize public investment and seek concessional financing.
• The government signed Paris Club agreements in 2010 and is negotiating similar terms with non-Paris Club creditors.
• They are committed to avoiding further accumulation of external arrears by following the debt service schedule and improving creditor communication.

D. Financial Sector Policies

• The Central Bank of Djibouti (CBD) has made progress in banking supervision.
• The banking law approved in 2010 is being implemented, with a roadmap to be finalized.
• The CBD is improving governance by setting a calendar for Board meetings and publishing audit opinions for 2010 accounts.

5. Staff Appraisal

• The staff supports the authorities' requests for waivers of nonobservance of the performance criteria.
• They believe the program is broadly on track, and the revised fiscal targets are attainable.

Risks Identified

• Political instability and social unrest could undermine reform efforts.
• Administrative capacity constraints and shortfalls in donor technical assistance may affect implementation.
• Spending pressures are expected from:
  • Higher transfers to EDD due to rising oil prices.
  • Uncontrolled expansion of the food subsidy program.
  • Resumption of hostilities with Eritrea and increased defense spending.
  • A humanitarian crisis in Yemen.
• Weaker-than-expected international reserves could worsen the current account deficit.

Conclusion

The ECF program is on track, with the authorities maintaining fiscal discipline and addressing key challenges such as unemployment, input costs, and public debt management. Despite some nonobservance of performance criteria due to the election period, the staff supports the request for waivers and revised targets. The program remains vulnerable to various risks, including political and administrative challenges, and external economic shocks. The authorities have committed to reforms and transparent fiscal policies to ensure debt sustainability and economic stability.